Sometimes superstars like Aaron Rodgers are too expensive to play
Kevin Roberts discusses how to fade effectively in daily fantasy sports.
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There comes a time in every DFS player’s life where they have to make a tough decision not just to go against the grain, but to go against everything.
Okay, perhaps that’s overkill. Then again, on a night where the most popular play seems obvious or everyone is chattering about a secret sleeper, it’s often better play not to follow along.
This, my friends, is the beautiful art of the fade.
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To put it simply, “fading” in daily fantasy sports is avoiding a particular player or game. Whatever your rationale is, when someone asks you if you used a specific player or used players from a specific team, your answer could be a majestic “fade.” If the player in question is doing especially awful and your buddy asks you in jest on Gchat if you used that sad sack, you can freely (and gladly) type “faaaaaaade” with all of the confidence in the world.
Here are the main reasons you’d fade a player in DFS.
Too Expensive
Fading a player or game can backfire, of course, so usually using the fade game should be a decision you come to after a lot of research and analysis. For instance, if everyone is using Aaron Rodgers because he’s got an amazing matchup one week, but he’s also the most expensive quarterback, it might be a good idea to fade A-Rod if you think you’ve got a great alternative option.
Sometimes DFS sites price a player out to the point where it’s almost insane to use them. Some guys go on tears that are so crazy that the ridiculous pricing is expected, but it’s up to the DFS player to gauge when that price is simply far too high. On that day, your fade hand will be as strong and swift as ever.
Weather Concerns
Usually only applying to baseball or football, you’ll often want to consider a “sure thing” if weather factors into your game negatively. For MLB games, you’re obviously often at risk of having a game PPD (postponed) or at least delayed.
That can negatively impact the game in a number of ways, so fading players from either team or just the game altogether isn’t a bad move. Then again, if you use the hard fade and this game is totally fine, then produces a combined 20 runs, you’re going to regret it.
The same could go for NFL action. Take a rainy/muddy game, for example.
You’re probably going to want to fade Peyton Manning if he’s outdoors in the mud, as the Denver Broncos would pass less and be less effective when they pass most likely. That should give you the green light to fire up their rushers as C.J. Anderson (and whoever the running back Denver is facing that week) should see a ton of touches in unfriendly passing situations.
Not 100% or “Questionable” Status
A player injury or shaky availability is a great reason to fade them. If Arian Foster has an ankle issue and is questionable to suit up, it might be wise just to use someone else who is cheaper and also a strong play.
This also goes hand in hand with late-game statuses, as a player could be sick and questionable to play in a night game, and you may not want to wait around to get burned by bad reporting at the last second. This can be easily tempered in most cases with the late swap option available at sites like DraftKings, but sites that lock their rosters when the first game begins could prompt you to hard fade a lot more often.
Brutal Matchup
Matchups are a necessary evil, as more often than not (especially in football) they can show you how likely it is a running back will find success on the ground or a stud receiver will get shut down by an opposing shutdown corner. If you’re thinking about using a guy who is a bit pricey, perhaps the deal breaker that week is the fact that he’s going up against the No. 1 defense in the league. Sometimes those rankings mean nothing, but if this guy did almost nothing in a previous matchup against this team or this defense is red hot, it might be a good time to pull out the fade card.
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Unless you create 20+ teams a night on DFS sites, you’re bound to fade someone. In fact, even if you do that, fading is still something you probably can’t avoid. The controlled fade (specifically fading someone because you’re aware of a questionable situation) is what is important, though.
The ultimate fade comes when you decide not to use a certain player or certain teams throughout all of your lineups and on every DFS site you play on. The ultimate fade is a dangerous game, but then again, so is DFS.
