Can Hunter Henry (pictured) be the next Jason Witten?
The first, and maybe second, wave of free agency has now passed, bringing the draft closer to all eyes. There is no more volatile position in the NFL, certainly in terms of fantasy production, than tight end and here I offer my thoughts on the top three prospects at that spot in this year’s class.
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Hunter Henry (Arkansas)
Henry is by far the best of this particular bunch. The 2015 winner of the John Mackey Award (given to college football’s best tight end) finished his junior season with 51 receptions for 793 yards and three scores.
Like most at his position in the NFL, he is a better receiver than a blocker, but he is at least willing to block for the good of his teammates on occasion. Mike Vahey of Optimum Scouting compares him to Jason Witten, and any team that would be disappointed to have a young Witten fall to them in the second round in April would be ridiculously hard to please.
Tyler Higbee (Western Kentucky)
Higbee, a converted wide receiver, played five years in college. He’s the same height at Henry but is at least 20 pounds lighter. This hurts him in the blocking game, in which he is simply not yet strong enough as a blocker to contribute fully. He did catch 38 balls last season for 563 yards and eight touchdowns, so as you’d expect from a former wideout he has very few problems in the receiving part of the game.
Nick Vannett (Ohio State)
Vannett was expected to block and block often with the Buckeyes, and to his credit, he did so manfully. Unlike his two peers mentioned above, it is his skills as a pass catcher that will need work moving forward.
His 2015 season saw just 19 receptions, but he is far from a terrible receiver. His blocking skills should ensure ample time on the field, and with this exposure, he will get the chance to make some plays.
As talented as the three players are, I cannot and will not endorse them as breakout stars in their first year. The tight end position is not one that produces rookie sensations, as a rule. For all the recent achievements of the young wide receivers breaking out 1,000-yard campaigns in their first go round, first-year production for tight ends has been considerably lower.
Only one tight end surpassed 1,000 yards in his rookie year…and that was Mike Ditka back in 1961. Since the dawn of the 21st century, only eight rookie tight ends have amassed more than 500 yards, and they are:
- Jeremy Shockey (New York Giants, 2002): 894 yards, two touchdowns
- John Carlson (Seattle Seahawks, 2008): 627 yards, five touchdowns
- Tim Wright (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2013): 571 yards, five touchdowns
- Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots, 2010): 563 yards, six touchdowns
- Tony Moeaki (Kansas City Chiefs, 2010): 556 yards, three touchdowns
- Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots, 2010): 546 yards, 10 touchdowns
- Dustin Keller (New York Jets, 2008): 535 yards, three touchdowns
- Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis Colts, 2012): 521 yards, three touchdowns
In the “what have you done for me lately?” NFL, an outstanding rookie season can often see a player crowned a legend before he ever becomes a great player. Of the eight names above, Shockey, Carlson, Wright, Moeaki and Allen never topped their rookie yardage totals again (spoiler alert – Allen WILL in 2016).
Gronkowski has shown himself to be an out of this world talent despite a catalogue of injuries while Hernandez…well, let’s just say he won’t play again. This year’s crop of rookies will probably not be fantasy superstars in 2016, but keep an eye on them from 2017 and beyond.
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Neil Dutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Neil, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ndutton13.
