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FantasyPros Mock Draft: Rounds 18 & 19 Recap

Mar 1, 2016

Trevor_Bauer_Indians1

Trevor Bauer is a legitimate breakout candidate for 2016

As we move into the 20th round of the draft, most of the relievers are off of the board and most teams are starting to look at bench players. When analyzing bench players to pick, there are two trains of thought; either the youngsters that you are hoping will make an impact or veterans that are just innings fillers or depth. Also, some teams will look at extra pitching depth while others look to have extra hitters to be one step ahead of the waiver wire.

Remember to keep track of live updates of the mock draft @thezman2010 on Twitter or at #FPMockDraft.

Draft Wizard: Mock in minutes vs. the most accurate experts >>

Read below for picks and analysis for the eighteenth and nineteenth round of the 2016 FantasyPros MLB Mock Draft.

18.01 Rob Klein – Marco Estrada (SP – TOR)

Estrada had a fine season pitching in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre in Toronto. He posted a 13-8 record in 32 starts with an ERA of 3.13, a WHIP of 1.11 but struck out only 131 batters in 181 innings. What makes Estrada appealing with this pick is his consistently low WHIP rates as he has posted an average rate of 1.11 over the last three seasons. It is tough to chase wins but Estrada should continue to see plenty of run support pitching for the Blue Jays, and there are enough strikeout pitchers on Rob’s staff to absorb Estrada’s low strikeout rate of 6.5 per nine innings.

C-McCann 1B- Cabrera 2B- SS-Marte 3B-Machado OF- Cruz OF-Gonzalez OF-Puig UT-Teixeira UT-Pillar UT-Parra P- Hamels P-Lester P-Verlander P-Familia P-Britton P-Shields P-Fiers P-Estrada BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.02  John Aubin – Devin Mesoraco (C – CIN)

John hopes that Devin Mesoraco can regain his 2014 form when he hit .273 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI. Last season was a wasted year for Mesoraco, who hurt his hip in the first week of the season and ended up having surgery in June.   The reports are he should be ready to start catching in spring training but there is a risk that there could be a setback. With the shallow pool of good catchers, John feels Mesoraco is a good risk in round 18.

C-Mesoraco 1B-Gonzalez 2B-Odor SS-Boegarts 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF-Yelich OF-Pederson UT-Duffy UT-Granderson UT- P- Fernandez P-Bumgarner P-Kimbrel P-Richards P-Matz P-Rodriguez P-Corbin P-Ross BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.03 Matthew Davis – Trevor Bauer (SP – CLE)

Trevor Bauer tossed 176 innings in 2015 and will look to notch his first season of 200-plus innings. Looking back to last season, the first thing that caught my attention was Bauer’s home/road splits and how poor he was at home. Usually, a young pitcher tends to pitch better at home where the overall environment is more comforting but Bauer had a whopping 5.62 ERA in Cleveland with a 3.32 ERA elsewhere. Some of his advanced numbers suggest he wasn’t as sharp with his pitches in the second half that resulted in a lower K% and a higher BB%. It is common for young pitchers to get fatigued down the stretch early in their careers. Experience and maturity are going to come with time for the 25-year-old and Matthew expects 2016 to be another leap in the right direction. Take your shot on Bauer where he comes with plenty of upside and should have no problem exceeding value in auction leagues.

C- 1B-Rizzo 2B-Murphy SS-Seager 3B-Longoria OF- Pollock OF-Upton OF-Gomez UT-Cespedes UT-Soler UT- P-Ross P-Salazar P-Martinez P-Rondon P-Rodon P-Boxberger P-Teheran P-Severino BE-Bauer BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.04 Chris Zolli – Andrew Cashner (SP – SD)

Picking Andrew Cashner in the 18th round means one of two things for me; either he will be a top pitcher for my team or he will not make it through the month of May without going on the waiver wire. Cashner’s volatility creates a situation where this talented pitcher is drafted in the 18th round, a year after he posted a career-best 8.04 strikeouts per nine and his hard hit ball percentage dropped to 30%. There are a lot of reasons not to like Cashner, as he had a 1.44 WHIP, 3.22 walks per nine, and 6-16 record in 2015, but that is not the whole story for Cashner’s 2015 season. His BABIP was .330 and LOB% was 65.6% in 2015 and his 4.34 ERA was inflated by him allowing .93 home runs per nine, leading to a 3.85 FIP. His ground ball percentage dropping in each of his last five seasons is not a reason to believe that he will be better in 2016 than 2015, his home run rate will normalize and he will have an ERA somewhere in the mid-3.00s. Even if he does not win more than 12 games, an ERA in the mid-3.00s with 17o or so strikeouts is acceptable for my sixth starter.

C-Schwarber 1B-Fielder 2B-Kipnis SS- 3B-Arenado OF- Marte OF-Martinez OF-Cain  UT-Polanco UT-Gardner UT-Fowler P- Darvish P-McCullers P-Tanaka P-Street P-Papelbon P-Hendricks P-Kennedy P-Cashner BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.05 David Marcillo – Alex Rodriguez (3B/DH – NYY)

“A-Rod” returned from his suspension last season and smacked 33 home runs while maintaining a .250 batting average. Going into his age 40 season, another 33 home runs may be too much to ask, but 25 is not out of the question. He also cooled off considerably down the stretch last season, but he should be a valuable pick at this stage of the draft. The upside is there, he is still A-Rod, but the risk is still there since he is, after all, still A-Rod.

C-Posey 1B-Votto 2B-Zobrist SS-Desmond 3B-Carpenter OF- Stanton OF-Calhoun OF- Conforto UT-Hosmer UT-Morales UT-Myers P- Harvey P-Gray P-Ramos P-Pineda P-Iglesias P-Smyly P- P- BE-Rodriguez BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.06 Jamie Mellor – Stephen Vogt (C – OAK)

Jamie decided to take a catcher here to complete his starting lineup.  Vogt comes with some risks, including his recent surgery, but he also has upside and feels like a fairly good value in the 18th round.

C-Vogt 1B-Freeman 2B-Wong SS-Correa 3B-Rendon OF- Betts OF-Braun OF-Eaton UT-Davis UT-Bruce UT-Baez P- Price P-Hernandez P-Wainwright P-Davis P-Quintana P-Casilla P-Lackey P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.07 Matt Terelle – Jason Hammel (SP – CHC)

Hammel started off the 2015 season pitching really well. He posted a 2.86 ERA in the first half of the season. His second half was not quite as good as he had a 5.10 ERA. There are some who feel his second half was derailed by a hamstring injury that he tried to pitch through. All in all, he finished 2015 with 10 wins, a 3.74 ERA and 9.07 strikeouts per nine innings. If the poor second half was truly a result of his injury and Hammel can put together a full season pitching like he did in the first half, he will be a steal in the 18th round of drafts.

C-Perez 1B-Duda 2B-Dozier SS-Reyes 3B-Donaldson OF- Bautista OF-Blackmon OF-Heyward UT-Sano UT-Ellsbury UT-Peralta P- Grienke P-Liriano P-Wacha P-Rosenthal P-Samardzija P-Doolittle P-Hammel P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.08 Eric Townsend – Steve Cishek (RP – SEA)

2015 was a lost season for Cishek, as he struggled out of the gate to the tune of a 10.32 ERA in 11.1 IP, while blowing four out of seven save chances, leading to him losing the closer job for the Marlins. However, Cishek had been a solid closer the previous two years and was showing signs of life with the Cardinals in the second half of 2015 (2.31 ERA in 23.1 IP). Cishek has been given another shot at closing with the Seattle Mariners, in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, with every likelihood of a bounce back campaign in sight. If Cishek regains his form, 35 saves with a ~2.70 ERA and a K/9 over 9.00 are reasonable expectations, which is a great value in the 18th round.

C-d’Arnaud 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS-Tulowitzki 3B-Moustakas OF-Ramirez  OF-Reddick OF-Burns UT-Ortiz UT-Pujols  UT-DeShields Jr. P- Cole P-deGrom P-Jansen P-Kazmir P-Ziegler P-Gonzalez P-Cishek P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.09 Kerry Kauffman – Matt Wieters (C – BAL)

While catcher seem to be a relatively overlooked positions, I believe it’s important to have two quality catchers. Most catchers won’t play more than 4 or 5 days a week, so a quality second catcher is crucial for those other days. Having said that, I was pleasantly surprised to see Matt Wieters on the board this late in the draft. Wieters missed a lot of time over the past two seasons due to injury, but he still belted 13 home runs and hit .279 in 101 games combined. The previous three seasons, Wieters averaged 22 home runs and 77 RBI.  Look for Wieters to hit in the vicinity of .260 to .270 with 15 to 20 home runs and 70 RBI. That is excellent production for an 18th round draft pick.

C-Gattis 1B-Encarnacion 2B-Cano SS-Andrus 3B-Frazier OF-Kemp OF-Revere OF-Choo UT-Gordon UT-Zimmerman UT- P-Kershaw P-Keuchel P-Giles P-Zimmermann P-McHugh P-Perkins P-Wood P- BE-Wieters BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

18.10 Daniel Marcus – Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL)

Schoop has proven he has a lot of pop in his bat. Dan won’t count on a repeat of the .279 average he posted last year due to the amount of swing and miss in his game, but Schoop gives Dan depth through the middle infield.

C-Lucroy 1B-Goldschmidt 2B-Russell SS-Kang 3B-Franco OF- Springer OF-Jones OF-Hamilton UT-Dickerson UT-Santana UT-Schoop P- Sale P-Carrasco P-Allen P-Robertson P-Odorizzi P-Ventura P-McGee P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

18.11 Roy Widrig – Byung-ho Park (1B/OF – MIN)

Here’s what we know about Byung-ho Park: he’s 29 years old and has humiliated KBO pitchers for the last five seasons with at least 31 home runs. Over that time span, Park has homered 173 times with 52 and 53 dongs in the last two seasons respectively. Park’s power is absolutely elite, but of course, there is bound to be an adjustment period between the KBO (a pitcher-demoralizing league) and the MLB (currently treating pitchers quite well) and there’s very little possibility he’ll hit 50 HR in any North American league, ever. Still, his ceiling is extraordinary, and with a solid adjustment to the American League, 30 HR seems more than possible. The Twins didn’t give Park a 4/$12 Million contract to sit the bench.

C-Martin 1B-Davis 2B-LeMahieu SS-Crawford 3B-Seager OF-Harper OF-Pence OF-Grichuk UT-Buxton UT-Park UT- P-Arrieta P-Syndergaard P-Archer P-Melancon P- Stroman P-Miller P-Tolleson P-Maeda BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

18.12 Gavin Tramps – Carter Capps (RP – MIA)

The funky extended delivery makes the ball look significantly faster than its clocked speed of 98 mph. Capps struck out nearly half of the batters he faced in 2015 and will get the opportunity to compete with A.J Ramos for the closer’s gig in Miami. He was restricted to just 31 innings last year but had a 16.84 SO/9, 1.10 FIP and 0.81 WHIP. The upside is a top-5 closer if he gets anointed as the Marlins’ ninth-inning guy. The downside is the obvious injury risk that is attached to a power pitcher with elbow issues.

C- 1B-Belt 2B-Gordon SS-Lindor 3B-Beltre OF-Trout OF-Brantley OF-Trumbo UT-Kinsler UT-Span UT-Piscotty P-Scherzer P-Kluber P-Strasburg P-Cueto P- Chapman P-Walker P-Iwakuma P-Capps BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.01 Gavin Tramps – Andrew Miller (RP – NYY)

 A necessary insurance pick with Aroldis Chapman already on the roster. Although no charges were filed by the police in the alleged domestic assault incident, MLB has reserved the right to investigate matters independently and a verdict should be known shortly. Miller is one of the games’ most dominant relievers, having recorded 203 strikeouts over two years with a 14.73 SO/9, 1.96 FIP and 0.83 WHIP.

C- 1B-Belt 2B-Gordon SS-Lindor 3B-Beltre OF-Trout OF-Brantley OF-Trumbo UT-Kinsler UT-Span UT-Piscotty P-Scherzer P-Kluber P-Strasburg P-Cueto P- Chapman P-Walker P-Iwakuma P-Capps BE-Miller BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.02 Roy Widrig – Wei-Yei Chen (SP – MIA)

Many look at Wei-Yin Chen and see an average pitcher getting by with above-average stats on an uncomfortably high fly ball rate (40%) and mediocre ground ball rate (41%). While these numbers are terrifying in his 2015 home at Camden Yards, Chen signed a five-year, $80 million deal with the Miami Marlins this offseason, moving himself to one of the best places in the National League for a fly-ball pitcher. Marlins Park ranked 14th overall in ESPN Park Factor in 2015 with .950, compared to Camden Yards which ranked 3rd at 1.228. While picking Chen here seems pretty basic, this pick may have some extra value should his stuff translate over to the much lighter NL East and pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.

C-Martin 1B-Davis 2B-LeMahieu SS-Crawford 3B-Seager OF-Harper OF-Pence OF-Grichuk UT-Buxton UT-Park UT- P-Arrieta P-Syndergaard P-Archer P-Melancon P- Stroman P-Miller P-Tolleson P-Maeda BE-Chen BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.03 Daniel Marcus – Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS)

Eduardo Rodriguez was inconsistent last season but has a lot of potential. It may be a year (or two) before he truly breaks out but as Dan’s last pitcher this is a good place to take a chance on him. Rodriguez has shown he has good control of his pitches and now he can focus on developing his pitches to dominate hitters. Dan could end up dropping Rodriguez early in the season but he offers upside at this point in the draft.

C-Lucroy 1B-Goldschmidt 2B-Russell SS-Kang 3B-Franco OF- Springer OF-Jones OF-Hamilton UT-Dickerson UT-Santana UT-Schoop P- Sale P-Carrasco P-Allen P-Robertson P-Odorizzi P-Ventura P-McGee P-Rodriguez P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.04 Kerry Kauffman – Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI)

Herrera was a Rule 5 draft pick last season and surprised many with a good combination of speed, batting average and moderate power. He hit .297 with 30 doubles, 8 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  Predicting his sophomore season may be difficult, as pitchers are more aware of his weaknesses, but Herrera has very good tools and a big upside. He’ll play every day on a rebuilding Phillies team and a season of .290, 10 to 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases is not out of the question. Herrera provided good outfield depth and a solid pick in the 19th round.

C-Gattis 1B-Encarnacion 2B-Cano SS-Andrus 3B-Frazier OF-Kemp OF-Revere OF-Choo UT-Gordon UT-Zimmerman UT-Herrera P-Kershaw P-Keuchel P-Giles P-Zimmermann P-McHugh P-Perkins P-Wood P- BE-Wieters BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.05 Eric Townsend – Kevin Gausman (SP – BAL)

Kevin Gausman has yet to see a full season in the majors, most recently due to shoulder tendinitis that caused him to miss most of May and June in 2015. However, he’s a former #4 overall pick, only 25 years old, and the talent is there for him to breakout this season if healthy. With a solid K/9 averaging around the 8.00 mark, and good command on his pitches (3.55 K/BB in 2015), there is plenty of potential still left in the young arm, making him well worth a shot in the 19th round.

C-d’Arnaud 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS-Tulowitzki 3B-Moustakas OF-Ramirez  OF-Reddick OF-Burns UT-Ortiz UT-Pujols  UT-DeShields Jr. P- Cole P-deGrom P-Jansen P-Kazmir P-Ziegler P-Gonzalez P-Cishek P-Gausman BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.06 Matt Terelle – Jaime Garcia (SP – STL)

Garcia can’t seem to stay healthy, but when he pitches he is productive. Last year he moved into the rotation after Adam Wainwright was lost for the year and made 20 starts. He did spend some time on the disabled list with a groin injury, but still won 10 games and posted a 2.43 ERA in over 129 innings. He may not make it through a full season, but he should be a serviceable fantasy pitcher while he’s on the field.

C-Perez 1B-Duda 2B-Dozier SS-Reyes 3B-Donaldson OF- Bautista OF-Blackmon OF-Heyward UT-Sano UT-Ellsbury UT-Peralta P- Grienke P-Liriano P-Wacha P-Rosenthal P-Samardzija P-Doolittle P-Hammel P-Garcia BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

19.07 Jamie Mellor – Will Smith (RP – MIL)

Jamie had considered both Smith and Miller at earlier spots but other players fell to him. Smith last season struck out 91 batters in 63 IP and has a good chance of winning the closers job for Milwaukee.  If he wins the closer job and performs like he did last year, this will be a very nice piece to Jamie’s bullpen. If he doesn’t, then this will be a guy to help with K’s and not hurt his ERA most weeks.

C-Vogt 1B-Freeman 2B-Wong SS-Correa 3B-Rendon OF- Betts OF-Braun OF-Eaton UT-Davis UT-Bruce UT-Baez P- Price P-Hernandez P-Wainwright P-Davis P-Quintana P-Casilla P-Lackey P-Smith BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.08 David Marcillo – J.A. Happ (SP – TOR)

J.A. Happ signed a 3 year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays, surprising a lot of people. However, a closer look at his numbers shows that pitching wizard Ray Searage did a great job with Happ in his time as a Pirate. Happ posted a 1.85 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 63/13 K/BB in 63.1 innings in Pittsburgh. He’ll never want for run support in Toronto, and may be a sneaky late-round pickup.

C-Posey 1B-Votto 2B-Zobrist SS-Desmond 3B-Carpenter OF- Stanton OF-Calhoun OF- Conforto UT-Hosmer UT-Morales UT-Myers P- Harvey P-Gray P-Ramos P-Pineda P-Iglesias P-Smyly P-Happ P- BE-Rodriguez BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.09 Chris Zolli – Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL)

Although my team is without a defined SP1, the quantity of high upside pitchers may keep my pitching competitive through the season; Jimmy Nelson follows that mold. After opening his MLB career 13-22 through his first 43 starts, Nelson has not shown his strikeout per inning promise from the minor leagues and only has a 4.21 ERA. He also saw his FIP go from 3.78 in 2014 to 4.11 in 2015 and his walk rate jump from 2.47 in 2014 to 3.3 in 2015; even with his drop in those statistics, he improved his ground ball percentage above 50% and saw his hard hit ball percentage drop to 28.9%, leading to a .285 BABIP. A big reason to believe that Nelson’s ERA may be closer to the mid-3.00s than the low-4.00s is that his fly ball percentage dropped in 2015 while his HR/FB% went up; a bit better luck could lead to shaving a couple points off of his ERA. Nelson may not be the SP1 that the Brewers hoped that he would be, but his minor league pedigree of 9.21 strikeouts per nine prove he has decent strikeout potential and a chance to breakout in 2016.

C-Schwarber 1B-Fielder 2B-Kipnis SS- 3B-Arenado OF- Marte OF-Martinez OF-Cain  UT-Polanco UT-Gardner UT-Fowler P- Darvish P-McCullers P-Tanaka P-Street P-Papelbon P-Hendricks P-Kennedy P-Cashner BE-Nelson BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

19.10 Matthew Davis – Matt Holliday (OF – STL)

If you throw out Matt Holliday’s rookie season, he has only one season with less than 500-plus plate appearances and that came last season. Thanks to a quad injury, Holliday only saw 277 plate appearances but posted a solid .354 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. The quad injury is in the rear view mirror and Holliday has been working out at first base to become more versatile. The plan is for Holliday to be the Cardinals’ everyday left fielder but could end up getting some reps at first base against left-handed pitchers. Matt Adams is currently slotted as the first baseman but struggles mightily against left-handed pitchers. Holliday’s current NFBC ADP is 172 and Matthew just landed him with the 226th pick. If Holliday goes forgotten, Matthew suggests you take a flyer on him this late in a 12-team mixed league.

C- 1B-Rizzo 2B-Murphy SS-Seager 3B-Longoria OF- Pollock OF-Upton OF-Gomez UT-Cespedes UT-Soler UT-Holliday P-Ross P-Salazar P-Martinez P-Rondon P-Rodon P-Boxberger P-Teheran P-Severino BE- Bauer BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.11 John Aubin – Arodys Vizcaino (RP – ATL)

All of the closers left on the board in the draft come with question marks and could potentially lose their job before spring training is over. Aroldys Vizcaino could finish the year as a top 10 closer. He also could struggle and lose his closer role to a healthy Jason Grilli waiting in the wings. John thinks Vizcaino can hold onto the job and save over 30 games this season. He finished 2015 saving 9 games out of 10 opportunities and had a 9.89 K/9 rate.

C-Mesoraco 1B-Gonzalez 2B-Odor SS-Boegarts 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF-Yelich OF-Pederson UT-Duffy UT-Granderson UT- P- Fernandez P-Bumgarner P-Kimbrel P-Richards P-Matz P-Rodriguez P-Corbin P-Ross BE-Vizcaino BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

19.12 Rob Klein – Brandon Phillips (2B – CIN)

This selection was made, knowing that this is a redraft league and Phillips, even at the age of 34 provides help in all offensive categories. Last season he batted .294 with 12 home runs, 70 RBI and 23 stolen bases. While he may not likely reach those numbers in 2016 he will still bat in the heart of the Reds order, in a hitter-friendly park and provide solid offensive numbers once again. While the Reds may be in rebuilding mode, Phillips is likely to stick around due to his contract and ability to veto any deals like the one he vetoed in December involving the Nationals.

C-McCann 1B- Cabrera 2B-Phillips SS-Marte 3B-Machado OF- Cruz OF-Gonzalez OF-Puig UT-Teixeira UT-Pillar UT-Parra P- Hamels P-Lester P-Verlander P-Familia P-Britton P-Shields P-Fiers P-Estrada BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- 

Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.

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