Charlie Blackmon led big leaguers with 60 HR+SB last season

This is a fun article for me personally, growing up playing ball with Charlie Blackmon and observing that for most of the time, he was the best athlete out on the field. He was a solid LHP at Young Harris College and his frame filled out as he grew to a 6’3 OF, eventually transferring to Georgia Tech, batting leadoff as a senior with an impressive .396 average with eight HRs and 25 SBs. He was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft, into the perfect fantasy situation in Colorado.

After fighting for a starting spot in the outfield and making his first All-Star team in 2014, Blackmon legitimized himself as a fantasy force in 2015 as he finished fourth overall among outfielders on ESPN’s Player Rater rankings, behind only Bryce Harper, A.J. Pollock, and Mike Trout. One of the few backlashes of his season among fantasy pundits were the extreme home/road splits for him as well as most Colorado Rockies hitters.

The Home/Away argument is somewhat misleading considering that his counting numbers are actually quite similar across the board, although his average and OPS figures are certainly skewed when he is away from Coors Field. To out this in perspective, Blackmon’s OPS numbers at Coors made him into Andrew McCutcheon and more like Cameron Maybin on the road. He’s probably somewhere in between as his .797 figure ranked 21st in the league, tied with Jason Heyward and just ahead of Justin Upton.

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2015 Season Recap

What made him so valuable is where he was being selected at 137th overall and the 37th OF off the board. In other words, Blackmon was a 13th rounder performing like a second rounder. No-one else in the majors collected a higher total (60) of HRs (17) and SBs (43) than Blackmon in 2015. His stolen base jump (+15) from 2014 was a welcome addition for fantasy owners as he placed third in the NL, behind only Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton. Even at 6’3, Blackmon was given the green light on the base paths, although he was caught stealing 13 times, the second-highest total in the NL. Adding in 176 hits (sixth best) and 93 runs scored (tenth best), it was clear that Blackmon was a fantasy league winner in 2015.

2016 Zeile Projections and ECR

One of the most valuable tools we have here at Fantasy Pros are our Zeile Projections, which pull in data from some of the top websites/experts (Yahoo!, RotoChamp, FanGraphs and CBS Sports, among many others) to give a consensus average projection for the upcoming 2016 season. The projections are also fully sortable by stat category, including the option to see high/low values for each player. Blackmon’s Zeile projections assume a slight regression across the board in every single category, especially in SBs. Despite the doubts of many experts outlook repeating 2015’s numbers, he still is among the few five-category terrors in fantasy.

According to our Expert Consensus Rankings, Blackmon ranks 26th overall, the 10th outfielder off the board. He possesses an ADP of 35, slightly behind Pirates OF Starling Marte and a couple rounds ahead of other guys with similar skill sets such as Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Gomez and Jacoby Ellsbury. If you are staring at Blackmon on the board in the third round, just know that you can get similar value in the fifth and sixth.

If you are debating which Rockies OF to take in your draft, Blackmon offers much more appeal as an across-the-board performer than teammate Carlos Gonzalez. Although CarGo went on a second half tear to finish with 40 HRs, he was atrocious in the first half and could easily be traded by the deadline. You just need to be willing to pay up on the price for Blackmon in the third round.

2016 Season Outlook

Blackmon no longer is a name that owners will be sleeping on as he has moved into the conversation of the upper echelon fantasy OFs. His groundball rate and contact rate have become stable since he has been inserted as a regular in 2014, a sign that his numbers are for real. I think it would be hard for us to assume or ask for anything more than what Blackmon gave fantasy owners in 2015. If the Rockies do trade him towards the trading deadline, his value will most certainly regress, although he still can grade out as a top 20 guy. His value relies on being able to repeat the 43 bases he stole.

Given the fact that SBs were down by 10% league-wide last year, Chuck “Nazty”, as he is self-proclaimed, and his skill set is an attractive option to stuff the stat sheet. Alliteration aside, if he slips into the back half of round three or four, I’m willing to pay the price.

See all of our Zeile Projections here>
See our Expert Consensus Rankings here>

Kyle Borgognoni is an MLB and NFL correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyle_borg.