Could Paxton Lynch fall to the Bills, and would they grab him?
The Buffalo Bills gave the NFL one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season, and it wasn’t a pleasant one for them.
Over the two previous years, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s most feared defenses. In 2013 and 2014, they finished second and first in sacks, respectively, and were third in takeaways both years, and that was under two drastically different schemes.
Then they brought in Rex Ryan, who had a reputation as one of the game’s top defensive minds. The rich were supposed to get richer, but stunningly, they went bankrupt instead. Their sacks plummeted from 54 to 21, lowest in team history. How is that even possible?
So in his second season, Ryan is expected to make the defense truly his own. Buffalo jettisoned Mario Williams, who was a poor fit for Ryan’s plans and vocally made that known. His attitude won’t be missed, but he leaves a gaping hole in the front seven that must be addressed if the defense is to make a comeback.
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2015 Draft Picks
Round 2, Pick 50: Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State
Round 3, Pick 81: John Miller, G, Louisville
Round 5, Rick 155: Karlos Williams, RB, Florida State
Round 6, Pick 188: Tony Steward, LB, Clemson
Round 6, Pick 194: Nick O’Leary, TE, Florida State
Round 7, Pick 234: Dezmin Lewis, WR, Central Arkansas
Considering they had only three picks in the first five rounds, the Bills did pretty well. Darby was a home run, as he became a lockdown corner and was named Pro Football Focus’ defensive rookie of the year. Miller struggled at times but is a fairly safe starter at right guard. Williams is a relentless north-south torpedo who showed excellent vision for a rookie but whose straight-ahead style is a health risk.
None of the other three made any impact; O’Leary and Lewis dressed for six games combined, and Steward was released earlier this spring.
2016 Draft Picks
First round: 19th overall
Second round: 49th overall
Third round: 80th overall
Fourth round: 117th overall
Fifth round: 156th overall
Sixth round: 192nd overall
Sixth round: 218th overall
Top draft needs
Defensive Lineman
The three down linemen right now are Marcell Dareus, soon-to-be-33-year-old Kyle Williams and … yeah. This has been their most popular position in first-round mocks, as there’s a bounty of quality big men available.
First-Round Fit: Sheldon Rankins, Louisville
A host of DL possibilities dot the first round, including A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Andrew Billings and Chris Jones, but the ideal one may be Rankins, who can make an immediate impact anywhere along the line. He has the explosion to overcome a lack of size in a 3-4 front.
Day Two Pick: Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech
The ridiculous depth at DL may allow Butler to fall to 49, but a player who’s been compared to Muhammad Wilkerson might get Buffalo to work the phones and make it happen earlier in the second round.
Deeper Selection: Adolphus Washington, Ohio State
He has second-round athleticism but character issues may knock him into Day 3 – just right for a Rex Ryan team, with whom Washington has visited.
Inside Linebacker
The Bills let Nigel Bradham depart in free agency, and Preston Brown needs help in the middle. They did sign veteran Zach Brown, but that won’t stop them from looking to upgrade in the draft.
First-Round Fit: Darron Lee, Ohio State
Lee and Alabama thumper, Reggie Ragland, have been frequently linked to the Bills, but Lee has the speed and coverage ability to be a three-down player and would be a better complement to Brown.
Day Two Pick: Su’a Cravens, USC
Ryan values versatility and playmaking ability, and Cravens has both. He can play outside or inside linebacker, or safety.
Deeper Selection: Antonio Morrison, Florida
This Bills visitor is undersized but has tremendous heart, aggressiveness and leadership.
Outside linebacker
The pass rush went from shining to shambles and must be rebuilt. A threat from the edge is needed opposite Jerry Hughes, and while the Bills like Manny Lawson, he’s strictly a run-stopper and will turn 32 in July.
First-Round Fit: Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky
Rex Ryan has shown no hesitation to invest in high-upside players with character concerns, and Spence, with his drug-laden history, is a poster boy for that. Some believe he has top-10 talent and would be in play at 19. If the Bills go in another direction and Spence falls into the second round, Buffalo could very well trade up for him there.
Day Two Pick: Kamalei Correa, Boise State
A rather one-dimensional pass rusher, he’s raw but would be a sub for Lawson on passing downs.
Deeper Selection: Kyler Fackrell, Utah State
Tall, athletic and another versatile rusher who can drop into coverage.
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor carried the team on his back at times. In his first year as a starter, he was fifth in the league in yards per attempt and threw just six interceptions to 20 touchdowns, in addition to making plays on the run. The Bills were 8-6 with him at the helm. The problem is 2016 is the final year of a dirt-cheap contract. Is one efficient season worth a mega-extension? Taylor’s camp thinks so, and he’ll get one in free agency if the Bills don’t agree – which so far seems to be the case. They’ve been talking but appear to be far apart, as Terry Pegula will also need to open his long-term vault soon for Cordy Glenn and Stephon Gilmore. The Bills have all but put up a marquee sign saying they’ll draft a QB at some point, if for no other reason than to upgrade on 2013 bust E.J. Manuel.
First-Round Fit: Paxton Lynch, Memphis
The certainty of a Goff-Wentz or Wentz-Goff top two may lift Lynch out of the Bills’ reach, but if he’s there, it might give Rex Ryan some satisfaction to steal him away from the Jets, who have the next pick. He’s 6-7 with a big arm and dangerous legs, making him a high-upside 2017 starter if Taylor leaves.
Day Two Pick: Connor Cook, Michigan State
His biggest selling point is experience (four-year starter) in a pro-style offense. But the Bills may prefer a similar QB in the later rounds: Stanford’s Kevin Hogan.
Deeper Selection: Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
Has a good skill set, including mobility and intelligence, and flaws that can be coached. A DUI arrest in March won’t scare off Buffalo.
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods is an OK starter opposite Sammy Watkins, but the Bills may let him walk after 2016 with more important contract-year players to sign. Neither are tall for receivers, so a bigger target for Tyrod Taylor could be tempting.
First-Round Fit: Laquon Treadwell, Mississippi
His elite ball skills allow him to play bigger than his 6-2 frame, and he would make a great complement to the faster Watkins, moving Woods to the slot.
Day Two Pick: Michael Thomas, Ohio State
At 6-3, he’s a high-risk, high-reward prospect who needs work but has big-time potential.
Deeper Selection: Kolby Listenbee, TCU
He’s been overshadowed by teammate Josh Doctson (another Round 1 possibility), but has deep speed and is the only known receiver to visit the Bills.
Other positions the Bills are eyeing include offensive tackle (Taylor Decker, Ohio State) and safety (Karl Joseph, West Virginia; Vonn Bell, Ohio State). Why so many Buckeye prospects? The Bills reportedly took six of them, including QB Cardale Jones and CB Eli Apple (corner becomes a big future need if the Bills are worried about losing Gilmore), to dinner together.
Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
