Jon Lester has a favorable matchup Monday against the strikeout-happy Padres
We are here again on Monday with a pretty big slate of MLB games. We have a bunch of quality arms going today, as well as a game in Colorado. This should be a fun one!
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Pitchers
Jon Lester (CHC): $11,800 vs SD
Lester has pitched to a tune of 1.58 ERA. For DraftKings purposes, he has reached the 20 fantasy point mark in five of his six starts. He’s been extremely consistent, and now he gets the pleasure of facing this weak hitting Padres’ offense. Another good thing is that the Padres are tied for worst in the league with a 26% strikeout rate this season.
Steven Matz (NYM): $9,300 @ LAD
After Matz imploded in his first start this season, he has racked up four straight wins. The matchup isn’t ideal, but this Dodgers team is a little more potent from the left side of the plate. Since Matz will have the advantage in some of these lefty-lefty matchups, manager Dave Roberts should be able to plug in a good amount of righties against him. At the end of the day, though, the majority of the Dodgers’ better hitters are left-handed. I also like the fact that in three of his past four starts Matz has recorded at least eight strikeouts.
Also Consider
- Corey Kluber (CLE): $13,400
- Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $11,600
- Felix Hernandez (SEA): $11,000
Catchers
J.T. Realmuto (MIA): $3,300 vs MIL
Realmuto had a four-game stretch last week where he batted lead off. On Sunday, however, he was sent back down to seventh in the order. If he somehow finds his way back to leading off, it’s almost a no-brainer to play him at that price. He’s just in such a good matchup against Wily Peralta, who gave up 13 hits to this same Marlins team a little over a week ago. If Realmuto doesn’t lead off, Wilson Ramos for $100 less would be my substitute play.
Also Consider
- Brian McCann (NYY): $3,600
- Stephen Vogt (OAK): $3,400
- Wilson Ramos (WAS): $3,200
First Base
Brandon Belt (SF): $4,300 vs TOR
Picking on Aaron Sanchez isn’t something I necessarily recommend, but Belt has been hitting well recently. Belt has a seven-game hitting streak while batting .458 during that stretch. Sanchez has fared poorly against lefties, allowing a .329 wOBA and three home runs this season. AT&T Park doesn’t allow too many home runs, but it’s a spacious outfield which can contribute to a lot of hits.
Also Consider:
- Chris Davis (BAL): $4,200
- Mitch Moreland (TEX): $4,000
Second Base
Tommy La Stella (CHC): $3,100 vs SD
You’ll have to make sure he’s in the lineup, but he will be in a good spot to produce if he is. In his last three starts, he’s collected six hits in 12 at-bats, including a home run. Cesar Vargas’ statistics look good on the surface, but if you dig deeper, they are not impressive. His K/9 is just 6.61 and his BB/9 is 4.96 while having an extremely high left on base percentage of 97.2%. If La Stella doesn’t find his way into the lineup, I’ll probably play Chris Coghlan for the same price.
Also Consider
- Daniel Murphy (WAS): $4,400
- Chris Coghlan (OAK): $3,100
Third Base
Martin Prado (MIA): $3,700 vs MIL
All this guy has done this year is hit. He’s finally dipped below .400, but his average still is at an impressive .396 clip. Despite not having virtually any power, Prado has been able to rack up high DraftKings scores by having a good amount of multiple-hit games this season. He’s coming off a four-hit performance on Sunday, and now he gets to face Wily Peralta, who he is hitting .400 against in his career. By his standards, he has struggled a little at Marlins Park this season, but he still is hitting .298 there.
Also Consider
- Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,500
- Derek Dietrich (MIA): $3,400
Shortstop
Brandon Crawford (SF): $3,600 vs TOR
I don’t feel super safe with this pick, mainly because Crawford is a huge hit-or-miss type of guy. It’s also due to the fact that Sanchez has been extremely solid this year. However, Sanchez is susceptible to giving up a lot of hits at any time. Crawford has hit all four of his home runs this season against righty pitchers and has an ISO of .229 against them. There is potential here for Crawford to have a big game.
Also Consider
- Trevor Story (COL): $5,100
- Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM): $3,100
Outfield
Brandon Drury (ARZ): $3,600 @ COL
Drury has been great this year for Arizona. I prefer playing Drury when he’s batting second, but lately he’s been hitting fifth or sixth. When you factor in Coors Field, hitting fifth or sixth really isn’t that bad. Chatwood is coming off back-to-back starts of zero runs allowed, but both of those games were away. He holds a 7.20 ERA in two home starts at Coors Field this year. With the way the Diamondback bats can hit, Chatwood could be in for a long night.
Marcell Ozuna (MIA): $4,000 vs MIL
I guess I really like to pick on Wily Peralta. The last time these two faced each other, Ozuna went yard. Despite this being a poor park for hitters, there’s still a good chance he hits a home run here as well. Over the past 10 days, Ozuna has launched four home runs.
Ben Paulsen (COL): $3,300 vs ARZ
This is another “because of Coors” play. Paulsen is an okay hitter, but he does get a boost in average over his career when hitting at Coors. He’s a career .303 hitter at Coors Field compared to .260 in all other parks. His ISO is about the same when you look at home and away splits, but it’s interesting to note that he does have two more home runs on the road than he does at home throughout his short career. Archie Bradley has only pitched one game this season, and it wasn’t good. He gave up seven hits and five runs in just four innings of work. Look for much of the same to occur tonight.
Also Consider
- Gregory Polanco (PIT): $5,000
- Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $5,000
- Kris Bryant (CHC): $4,700
- Billy Burns (OAK): $4,200
- Nomar Mazara (TEX): $3,900
- Mark Trumbo (BAL): $3,600
My Lineup
- SP-Jon Lester
- SP-Steven Matz
- C-J.T. Realmuto
- 1B-Brandon Belt
- 2B-Tommy La Stella
- 3B-Martin Prado
- SS-Brandon Crawford
- OF-Brandon Drury
- OF-Marcell Ozuna
- OF-Ben Paulsen
Check out our DraftKings MLB Lineup Optimizer
Nick Tasso is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Find his other work at FantasyPros here. He also contributes to Daily Fantasy Cafe. Follow him on Twitter @theinefficient2.
