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Dynasty Risers & Fallers

Dynasty Risers & Fallers
Kenneth Dixon

Kenneth Dixon could become the Ravens’ starting RB sooner than later

Mark F.C. Johnson discusses his dynasty league risers and fallers following the NFL Draft.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Mark head to Dynasty League Football.

There truly is no offseason for those who play dynasty fantasy football. Accordingly, I spend a great deal of time every year scouting talent at the college level. As the NFL Draft approaches, the time I spend watching film increases exponentially. About a week before the NFL Draft, I generally have a pretty good idea of the players I am most interested in. However, year after year, the NFL Draft continues to find a way to surprise and, to an extent, dictate how I value rookies’ long-term prospects for fantasy purposes–as well as those veterans who might now find stiffer competition for touches.

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the players whose dynasty value was most impacted by this year’s NFL Draft.

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Biggest Risers in Dynasty Fantasy Value

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
The Dallas Cowboys picked Elliott fourth overall in this year’s draft, and envision him carrying the load for them for some time to come. He has everything you want in a workhorse, three-down back, and he will be running behind arguably the best offensive line in football. What more could you possibly want? Darren McFadden ran for over 1,000 yards last year behind that line, and he did that while Tony Romo missed 12 games due to injury. Elliott rushed for over 1,800 yards in 2014 and 2015 for the Buckeyes, and I see him toting the rock close to 300 times for Dallas this season. Had he landed elsewhere, there’d be some debate between he and one of the top WRs, but this landing spot has made him the consensus No. 1 pick in all dynasty rookie drafts. As for start-up drafts, Elliott should be going somewhere in the first round just before Le’Veon Bell.

Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL)
Come on, are you really worried about Justin Forsett (turns 31 in October)? Until 2014, Forsett was a special teams contributor and third-down receiving option out of the backfield, but little more. Oh, and Dixon is already better than Javorius Allen and Lorenzo Taliaferro. Dixon is as physical as a bull, finishing his runs with authority, and is an absurdly good pass catcher out of the backfield. I have concerns about his durability after accumulating 889 offensive touches during college and think he needs to work on ball security, but I absolutely love this landing spot. I think Dixon takes over the starting job toward the middle of the season, making him an excellent option for your flex down the stretch. You will likely need to pick somewhere between seventh and ninth in most rookie drafts in order to land him, but I think you’ll be happy you did.

Matt Jones (RB – WAS)
To be perfectly honest, I’m not in love with Jones based on his unimpressive college stats, issues with ball security, and his meager 3.4 YPC as a rookie. However, the Redskins clearly love him, and that is far more important than my personal sentiments. They let Alfred Morris go this offseason, and didn’t draft a RB until the 7th Round of the NFL Draft. This, along with all reports I’ve read coming out of Washington, tells me they feel good about Jones as their lead back, and will be giving him every opportunity to succeed. With DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon both still on the roster, the addition of Josh Doctson, and Jordan Reed returning under a new contract and healthy (for now), Washington’s offense should again be very productive in 2016 and provide Jones with some space to work with.

Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Love, love, love this pick by the New York Giants. He’s moving up everyone’s rookie draft boards in dynasty, and rightfully so. I fully expect him to supplant Victor Cruz as Eli Manning‘s second favorite target this year behind Odell Beckham Jr. He is an explosive athlete for his size, comes with exceptional character grades, runs crisp routes, and his skill set will allow him to do wonders for that offense in the slot. I think Cruz will be a good mentor for him, and I am very excited to see what Shepard does in 2016 and beyond. According to ESPN, the Giants used a three-wide-receiver set on 89% of their offensive plays last season, and this was without Cruz. This tells me Shepard will have ample opportunities, and I fully expect him to produce. Look for him to go fifth in most rookie drafts, and don’t be surprised if he catches 70+ balls for 900+ yards as a rookie.

Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
What I like most about Thomas is his ability to break tackles and make defenders miss after the catch. While you may scoff at his college stats, Ohio State’s offense was predicated on the running game (remember Ezekiel Elliot?). Thomas is 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, and I believe he is just what Drew Brees was looking to add to their offense. Since the departure of Jimmy Graham, the Saints have lacked a big-bodied red zone threat (sorry, Marques Colston). Thomas gives them that, and his hands, ball-skills, and big-play ability will make him a threat on every offensive snap. Thomas is a real climber for me, and like the next guy on my list, his QB has a lot to do with that. Thomas will go somewhere between the fifth and ninth picks in most rookie drafts, so adjust accordingly.

Malcolm Mitchell (WR – NE)
Two words, Tom Brady. Were it not for a torn ACL in 2013, Mitchell would very likely have gone a round or two earlier in this year’s NFL Draft. Surprise, surprise, the Patriots may have found themselves another “steal.” Mitchell ran a 4.45 40-yard-dash at this year’s NFL Combine, runs very clean routes, and has good hands. I believe this will endear him to his future Hall-of-Fame QB, and lead to Mitchell finding success as part of a potent Patriots’ passing attack. I’ve always been a fan of Nate Washington, but think Mitchell will battle him for snaps right out of the gate, and when’s the last time Danny Amendola played in all 16 games? The best thing about Mitchell is where you’ll be able to get him. DLF’s Rookie Draft ADP shows Mitchell going in the middle of the second round in most rookie drafts, and as long as Brady plays another couple seasons at the level we’ve grown accustomed to, I see Mitchell being well worth that.

Honorable Mentions: Tajae Sharpe (WR – TEN), Devontae Booker (RB – DEN), Paul Perkins (RB-NYG), Austin Hooper (TE – ATL), DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU), Kenny Lawler (WR – SEA)

Biggest Fallers in Dynasty Fantasy Value

DeMarco Murray (RB – TEN)
Just when you started to get excited about DeMarco Murray, BAM, Derrick Henry. I think the Titans will have an improved offense in 2016 with Marcus Mariota having a year’s worth of experience under his belt, along with the addition of Jack Conklin to their offensive line and Tajae Sharpe at receiver. However, when the Titans acquired  Murray, they paid him like a back that would be touching the ball 300+ times. Then, they go out and draft Henry. I think they eat into each other’s fantasy value quite a bit, and as a result, I think Tennessee is a backfield you’ll want to avoid in both dynasty and re-draft alike.

Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA)
Rawls’ value went soaring high last season when Marshawn Lynch missed time due to injury and Rawls went off. And, his value peaked when news broke of Lynch’s retirement. It looked like Rawls would be the undisputed workhorse RB in Seattle, which would be great cause for excitement given their track record. Then, they went out and drafted C.J. Prosise in the third round, and Alex Collins in the fifth. It is the Collins’ pick that concerns me the most. Most reports indicate the Seahawks view Prosise as more of a third-down back, so I predict they will use him much the same way they tried to use Fred Jackson last season. Collins, however, is a much better back than he gets credit for, and he could push Rawls for early-down work. All-in-all, the Seahawks showed they aren’t convinced that Rawls is their “guy” by drafting two RBs in the first five rounds of this year’s draft. Throw in the fact that Rawls is coming off what was reportedly a gruesome ankle injury, and you have more than enough reason to be concerned about Rawls’ future. If you own Rawls in dynasty, I suggest you try trading him now for 90 cents on the dollar, or alternatively if you hold onto him, be sure to draft Collins late in your rookie draft this year to be safe.

Jeremy Langford (RB – CHI)
Believe it or not, I think Jordan Howard (who the Bears drafted in the fifth round of this year’s draft) may fit what Chicago is looking to do more so than Langford and could emerge as their primary back. When you take into account that Langford averaged only 3.6 YPC last season, there is plenty of reason to worry about his dynasty prospects. Howard was projected by many to go in the second or third round of the draft, so don’t let where he wound up going fool you. NFL.com used Arian Foster as an NFL comparison for Howard. Though I’m not quite that high, Langford’s dynasty value is much, much lower than it was just a couple of months ago. When the Bears elected to not re-sign Matt Forte, most Langford owners probably thought they were sitting pretty with him. Oh how the mighty can fall. If you own Langford, and someone in your league still believes in his long-term prospects, I suggest you make a trade with that person, and do so quickly.

Pharoh Cooper (WR – LA)
Here’s a list of a few of the reasons I believe Cooper’s dynasty value took a major hit due to this landing spot: (1) Jared Goff; (2) Jeff Fisher; (3) Todd Gurley. Jeff Fisher (also commonly referred to as “Mr. 8-8”) has never been a coach known for his team’s passing attacks, and with a rookie at QB and generational talent like Gurley in the backfield, I anticipate the Rams will have a very run-happy offense in 2016. Of course, it’s not like they won’t be passing, but I envision the Rams’ passing attack being a poor man’s version of the Arizona Cardinals’ passing offense in that you will never know which receiver to roll with on a week-to-week basis. Tavon Austin will likely be their leading receiver, but it’s anyone’s guess which weeks he’ll make for a good start, and I think it’ll be even more difficult to predict whose turn it will be on any given Sunday between Brian Quick and Cooper behind Austin. If Cooper is still on the board late in your rookie draft, feel free to throw a dart his way, but I recommend steering clear of Cooper in dynasty for the reasons mentioned above.

Dishonorable Mentions: Alfred Morris (RB – DAL), Karlos Williams (RB – BUF), Melvin Gordon (RB – SD), Connor Cook (QB – OAK)

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