Will an improved Jaguars defense actually hurt Blake Bortles’ fantasy value?

Now that the NFL Draft is in the rearview, we’re asking a few of our correspondents to provide their biggest fantasy football risers and fallers.

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Biggest Risers in Fantasy Value

Latavius Murray (RB – OAK)
The presumption in many fantasy circles was that the Oakland Raiders were going to draft a running back to compete with Murray. While the Raiders did draft Texas Tech running back DeAndre Washington in the fifth round, Washington is likely to serve as the third-down back in the short-term. Given the additions this offseason to the Raiders’ offensive line, Murray could be in store for a monster campaign in 2016.
Matt Giraldi – @mgiraldi

I would argue that Latavius Murray should be viewed as the biggest riser in terms of fantasy value following the NFL Draft. The Oakland Raiders waited until the fifth round to address the position and settled on DeAndre Washington out of Texas Tech. He is viewed as a third down back, which makes it safe to assume Murray will resume his regular carries and have the upside at another 1,000-yard season.
Jen Ryan – @FFdeJENerate

Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA)
He was the presumptive starter with Lamar Miller moving to Houston, and the Dolphins were able to add Laremy Tunsil to the offensive line in the first round. Miami did add Kenyan Drake in the third round, but he’s more of a home run threat like Dexter McCluster. With an improved line and no legitimate challenger to his early-down carries, no fantasy football player benefited more from the draft than Ajayi.
Derek Norton – @mdereknorton

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
I was searching to go anywhere but Ezekiel Elliot, but I just couldn’t. Sometimes you have to go chalk. I liken it to picking the 2007 Florida Gators men’s basketball team to win the tourney that year. After winning it all in 2006, the team came back intact to make another run at it…with all their future NBA players. Easiest layup of this millennium.

Anyways, it doesn’t get any better for Elliot and his fantasy prospects than landing in Dallas. The Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in the league, a potent passing attack when Romo and Bryant are healthy, and Elliot is a three-down back that can catch the ball out of the backfield and protect the quarterback.
Stan Son – @Stan_Son

Biggest Fallers in Fantasy Value

Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA)
Everyone is focusing on the third-round pick C.J. Prosise as the threat to Rawls’ stardom, but the Seattle Seahawks also drafted Alex Collins out of Arkansas. Collins joined only Herschel Walker and Darren McFadden as the only three SEC running backs to run for over 1,000 yards in each of their first three seasons. Both Collins and Prosise have made the Seattle backfield a muddled mess, but not void of some serious talent.
Matt Giraldi – @mgiraldi

DeMarco Murray (RB – TEN)
The Titans had a crowded backfield before the draft. Along with Murray, they’ve got David Cobb, Antonio Andrews, Bishop Sankey, Dexter McCluster and David Fluellen. Then they spent a second round pick on Heisman winner,Derrick Henry. Murray would have been the most draftable back in Tennessee, but now it’s a total crapshoot.
Derek Norton – @mdereknorton

Blake Bortles (QB – JAC)
*ducks from all the tomatoes being thrown* Hear me out. The Jaguars did a phenomenal job in the draft bolstering their defense. They also get their first round pick from last year, Dante Fowler, back as well. Now, did you know that Bortles led the league in pass attempts when trailing with 428?

Only Ryan Tannehill and Phillip Rivers cracked the 400 attempt mark. The low man was Peyton Manning with 115. So, with a defense that is expected to be much improved, the number of passing attempts for Bortles will probably be much lower in 2016.

Now, if Gus Bradley was an offensive mind that liked to press the agenda, a la Bill Belichick or Chip Kelly, then I could maybe make the case for the attempts to remain elevated. Gus Bradley is a defensive-minded coach, though. I think he would like a more ball control offense and limit the number of turnovers.

Fantasy football is all about opportunity. Since Bortles is not the most efficient passer (58.6% puts him in Johnny Manziel territory), the lower volume will put a damper on his stats and will probably make him one of the most overrated quarterbacks in fantasy next year.
Stan Son – @Stan_Son

Alfred Morris (RB – DAL)
The popular response here is probably Darren McFadden, but I am going to go with his new teammate Morris. McFadden more than enough in 2015 to carve out a role for himself in 2016, and should be the back who comes in to give Ezekiel Elliot a breather. Alfred Morris or Lance Dunbar will be the odd man out in this rotation, and I am leaning towards Morris being expendable when it comes time to narrowing the roster down to 53 men.
Jen Ryan – @FFdeJENerate

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Much thanks to the correspondents for writing about these fantasy football risers and fallers. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more advice this season.