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Fantasy Baseball: Risers & Fallers (6/19 – 6/25)

Fantasy Baseball: Risers & Fallers (6/19 – 6/25)
Melvin Upton's production this season has been similar to what he posted as a Tampa Bay Ray

Melvin Upton Jr.’s production this season has been similar to what he posted as a Tampa Bay Ray

Wow. The last week of June is already here, which means the halfway point of the baseball season is almost upon us.

Injuries, call-ups, and the statistical ebbs and flows of individual players have kept us on our toes. There’s still a lot of baseball left to be played, but the time to start making moves is now.

Below are some lower-owned players that performed the best/worst over the past week.

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RISERS

  • Matt Wieters (C – BAL)
    10 hits, five runs, three home runs and nine RBI. Once touted as the “Joe Mauer with power,” Wieters has had a decent, yet unfulfilling career to date. He had three consecutive years with over 20 home runs (2011-2013), but missed significant time in 2014 and 2015 due to injury. The switch-hitting catcher has been far from having a Mauer-esque batting average, as he’s been a career .260-ish hitter. So far in 2016, Wieters has a .278/.332/.471 slash line with nine home runs and 37 RBI. He’s batting sixth in a powerful Orioles’ lineup and Camden Yards is hitter-friendly, especially for left-handed power bats. That last point is particularly relevant because Wieters has hit eight of his nine total home runs batting left-handed with a .324 average. From the right side, he’s batting .157. As you all know, I’m about C.R.E.A.M. Wieters is 30 years old and in the final year of his contract. His agent, Scott Boras, is one of the best, but Wieters is still going to have to put up some numbers if he wants any chance at getting one last big contract.
  • Melvin Upton Jr. (OF – SD)
    Nine hits, seven runs, two home runs, four RBI and two stolen bases. What is it about Uptons tantalizing us? There’s Kate, Melvin and Justin. In Melvin’s case, the artist formerly known as B.J., he showed flashes of being a 30/30 player earlier in his career. Rich Wilson and Tim McCleod of Prospect 361 often reminisce of watching Melvin play and commenting that he was, by far and away, the most physically-gifted player on the field. His last year with the Rays (2012), Upton hit 28 homers and stole 31 bases. Then he went to the Braves and struggled, prompting most in the fantasy community to write him off. So far in 2016, Upton is putting together a very successful season: .259 average with 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Is this for real? Well, the strikeout rate, while still high at 26%, is down from the mid-30% range from a few years ago. His 6.7% walk rate is a career-low, so that’s troubling, but there are some positive signs. He is hitting infield fly balls at 7.4%. That figure had been near 20% two out of the past three years. The batted ball profile gives me the most optimism, though. Upton is pulling the ball at a 32.2% rate. He was routinely in the 40% range and hit 50% last year. Correspondingly, he’s going up the middle and to the opposite field more frequently. I love seeing that approach in batters. With that said, he could easily revert back and things could fall apart, but that could also make him cheap to acquire.
  • Travis Jankowski (OF – SD)
    Six hits, five runs, two RBI and five stolen bases. Two Padres in the RISERS section? What is going on here? As much as we dog on the Padres, they actually rank sixth in OPS against left-handed pitching. Against righties? Last. Back to Jankowski, he’s been receiving playing time due to the Jon Jay injury and batting leadoff. Jankowski is 25 years old and bats from the left side. He never hit more than two home runs in any season, so don’t expect any power. He does have speed, though. He stole 71 bases in Single-A back in 2013. I wouldn’t expect much from Jankowski going forward. He’s striking out 31.1 % of the time and his BABIP is .383. And he plays for the Padres.
  • Willson Contreras (C – CHC)
    Eight hits, five runs, three home runs and nine RBI. Contreras was obliterating Triple-A this year, batting .350/.439/.591 with nine home runs and four steals in 239 plate appearances. Since getting called up, he’s batting .400/.500./900 with three home runs. He’s an excellent hitter with a very mature approach. He walks 12.5% of the time, while striking out only 16.7%. He doesn’t pull the ball (18.8%), but rather chooses to go up the middle (43.8%) and to the opposite field (37.5%). He has also played some first base and left field. The Cubs are just stacked with multi-position eligible players. Consistent playing time is the only issue I have for Contreras. Once Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler return to the mix, where does Contreras slot in? As long as Rizzo is healthy, he’s not playing first base. Catcher is manned by Miguel Montero and David Ross, who are both better defensively and for the pitching staff.
  • Drew Pomeranz (SP – SD)
    Two starts. Six innings, six hits, three earned runs, one walk and seven strikeouts in a win over the Nationals. Six days later, seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball with one walk and six strikeouts in a win over the Reds. Another Padre? Oh, I forgot to give a shout out to our sponsers this week, the San Diego Padres. Keep up the good work and keep sending those checks. The lefty has been brilliant, posting a 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP with 102 strikeouts in 88 innings. Pomeranz doesn’t throw hard, as his fastball averages 91 mph, but he’s added a cutter into the mix. He’s throwing that pitch 13% of the time and has decreased his fastball percentage to 47% from 67%. He’s also throwing the curveball at a career-high 39%. Not all is rosy, though. His walk rate is 3.99/9 and LOB% is 80%. The xFIP is also a full run over his ERA. There could be some tough times ahead, but there have been pitchers to “out-pitch” their peripherals in the past.

FALLERS

  • Edinson Volquez (SP – KC)
    One inning, eight hits, 11 earned runs and three walks. One strikeout would’ve been nice at least. So his ownership percentage only went down 4.4%. I would’ve expected more rage drops than that. So, let’s do the math. Volquez is owned in 51.1% of ESPN leagues. 50% of those leagues quit a month ago, so that leaves 1.1% that still own him. Why? It’s not all bad, though. Volquez has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 16 starts. He strikes out 7.09/9, which isn’t great but not terrible either. With that said, I’m only interested in stacking players against him in DFS. By the way, he has a 6.82 ERA on the road and lefties hit .295 against him. Now, go make that money.
  • Trayce Thompson (OF – LAD)
    One hit. Trace must be in mourning with his bro Klay. In addition, Yasiel Puig has returned to the lineup and Howie Kendrick has been playing a ton in left field. Poor play + less opportunites = no bueno. He’s probably platooning with Joc Pederson in center field now. I’d keep in dynasty formats, but in redraft leagues with shallow benches, I’d consider moving on.
  • Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)
    Two rough starts. Three innings, seven hits, seven earned runs, three walks and two strikeouts against the Twins. Five days later, 10 hits, five earned runs and four strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings against the Giants. That makes four consecutive starts allowing four or more earned runs in a game. Some of the advanced metrics fortell a bounceback, but I’m not so sure of that. For starters, Nola’s xFIP is 2.92 and strand rate is 61.8%. His K/9 is 9.75 and walk rate is good at 2.26/9. With that said, it’s hard to trust a pitcher that only throws 90 mph. Velocity is not the end all be all, but it defintely provides more room for error.
  • Ben Revere (OF – WAS)
    One hit. Oh, how times have changed. Revere used to be one of the more dependable AVG/SB guys. Now, he’s hanging out with Mario Mendoza and platooing with Michael Taylor. When Dusty Baker gives time to a young kid, you know your days are pretty much done.
  • Marcus Stroman (SP – TOR)
    Two starts. 3 2/3 innings, 10 hits , seven earned runs and four strikeouts against the Orioles. A week later, five innings, seven hits, four earned runs, four walks, and four strikeouts against the White Sox. The Toronto Sun reported that Stroman could be sent down to Triple-A if the struggles continue. His xFIP is 3.78 compared to his 5.23 ERA, but he just doesn’t strikeout enough batters (6.26/9).

Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.

 

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