Can Kris Dunn carve out a large role for himself in Minnesota’s crowded backcourt this season?
The pool of NBA rookies poised to make an immediate fantasy impact this year is rather limited with only four or five players showing enough promise to warrant draft consideration in standard sized leagues. Even out of those few, only Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons inspire enough confidence to garner mid-round speculation. Kris Dunn is, however, considered to be one of those top prospects and, had he landed in a more spacious backcourt, would find himself closer to Ingram and Simmons regarding fantasy potential for the upcoming season.
The 22-year-old Providence standout was projected by many to go third overall to the Celtics, but in a somewhat unexpected move, they went with Jaylen Brown, a 6’7″ athletic forward out of the University of California, causing Dunn to slide to Minnesota at No. 5. Though they currently have a talented point guard of their own in Ricky Rubio, the Timberwolves and their new head coach, Tom Thibodeau, seemed pleased with this outcome. In fact, word has gotten out that, leading up to the draft, and presumably following it as well, the Timberwolves are interested in dealing Rubio, which would likely allow Dunn the opportunity to snag the starting spot for himself.
It’s no wonder Thibodeau and the Wolves are so high on Dunn as the Connecticut native displays superb athleticism to go along with excellent size for a point guard. Standing at 6’4″ with an imposing 6’10” wingspan, he can be a successful perimeter defender capable of recovering and guarding the lane as well. His cumulative college stats are a bit misleading as a shoulder injury, sustained during his senior year of high school, hampered his freshman year of college and eventually forced a medical redshirt the next season. After recovering, however, Dunn managed to average 16 points, 8.2 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 2.6 steals and one three-pointer per game over his last two seasons as a Friar.
He brings with him a well-rounded game curtailed only by a high volume of turnovers and a jump shot (particularly from beyond the arc) that could still use a little work (48% FG, 37% 3PT and 69.5% FT last season). Dunn is the kind of player, though that will work hard to better his game and that work ethic has been praised by coaches and players alike.
He may never be known as a superior shooter, but he could very well raise that part of his game to a level where it no longer detracts from his overall stock. And, let’s not forget, considering Rubio’s career numbers of 36.8 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three, the bar isn’t set all that high.
Even if Rubio remains in Minnesota, Thibodeau has made it clear that running a two point guard lineup is an option that could work well, believing the two can play off of each other. Dunn has an excellent command of the open court with size that allows him to push the tempo without being blinded by as many road blocks as some of his less imposing counterparts. In the end, much like every other talented yet unproven rookie, it all comes down to opportunity, and for that reason, Dunn should be considered a late-round fantasy pick in standard leagues.
His fondness for turnovers may hurt his nine-category appeal (though invariably some owners will choose to punt that category altogether), but it won’t do much to hurt his value in eight-category or points leagues. It’s always important not to give into the inevitable rookie hype emanating from rival owners, so remember to keep your expectations of Dunn and all the other greenhorns in check. With that being said, however, he could very well end up being the gamble that pays off in the end.
George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.
