Kamar Aiken could be the No. 1 WR in Baltimore before long
Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes the disparity between the Expert Consensus Ranking and Average Draft Position.
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There’s always a gap between how fantasy football experts and the masses view any given player. This could be due to off-season news, injuries, clouded perception of last year’s performance or any number of other factors. Using FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and Consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) I’ve identified two players at each position that the experts and the public can’t agree on; one that is getting overhyped and another that is being overlooked and could provide huge value at their current ADP.
Overhyped
Jared Goff (QB – LA): ECR: 239 ADP: 174
Why he’s overhyped
Obviously, the Rams like what they see in Goff as they paid handsomely to acquire the first overall pick and draft him. Barring any complications, he will be the day-one starter and should be given a long leash to play with.
What the experts see
Regardless of who the starting QB is the Rams’ offense is going to run through Todd Gurley. Even without Gurley factored into the equation there aren’t a whole lot of viable receiving threats for Goff to throw to. This combination of a run-first offense and total lack of weapons means that it will be extremely difficult for Goff to live up to his QB2 ADP.
Darren McFadden (RB – DAL): ECR: 144 ADP: 110
Why he’s overhyped
McFadden performed admirably last year, racking up 1,417 all-purpose yards after separating himself from a crowded Dallas backfield. He’s being drafted in the ninth round in 12-team standard leagues with the hope that he will have primary rushing duties should Ezekiel Elliott suffer an injury or fail to perform.
What the experts see
The path to fantasy production is very murky for McFadden and that was before he broke his elbow this week. Not only would things have to go very wrong for Elliott, but he would also have to beat out Alfred Morris for the early-down workload in order to provide significant value. With all of the pieces that must fall into place, it doesn’t make sense to pick him up at his current RB3 ADP.
Sammy Watkins (WR – BUF): ECR: 32 ADP: 23
Why he’s overhyped
Watkins is coming off of a solid stretch of games at the end of last season. He is the clear-cut primary receiver for the Bills and will be headed into his second season with QB Tyrod Taylor.
What the experts see
While there is some cause for optimism with Watkins there is also equal cause for concern in the status of his recovery from offseason foot surgery. Even if he’s full go for the start of the season he is capped by the Bills low-volume, run-first offense. There are plenty of healthy players out there with a more established track record that make it tough to justify Watkins as your WR1.
Jimmy Graham (TE – SEA): ECR: 124 ADP: 102
Why he’s overhyped
Just three years ago Graham produced one of the best seasons ever from a tight end with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns. This was hardly an anomaly as he eclipsed 1,300 yards two seasons prior. There is a perception that the Seahawks’ offense is trending more towards the pass and that Graham could be an integral part of that transition.
What the experts see
Let’s get this out of the way: Jimmy Graham is attempting to come back from a torn patellar tendon which is one of the worst injuries an NFL player can suffer. Despite positive reports, there is no guarantee he even sees the field this year. Even if he does there may never be a return to form. And even if he does come back at full strength the Seahawks’ offense still follows a run-first scheme that will offer limited upside for this once great tight end.
Overlooked
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – FA): ECR: 168 ADP: 235
Why he’s overlooked
Despite his solid performance last year Fitzpatrick is still a free agent. If he doesn’t end up signing with a team he will obviously have no fantasy value and therefore wouldn’t make sense to roster.
What the experts see
Despite the ongoing contract disputes, it is almost certain that Fitzpatrick returns to the Jets in 2016. Assuming this is the case he would be coming back to the same offense that he was able to produce QB1 numbers in last season. At his current ADP, Fitzpatrick is barely being drafted which doesn’t make any sense considering his upside.
Charles Sims (RB – TB): ECR: 100 ADP: 120
Why he’s overlooked
Sims was overshadowed by Doug Martin‘s return to form last year. In the age of the RBBC, he is seen as purely the third-down option on a team that has historically not had an elite rushing attack.
What the experts see
Despite finishing last year as an RB2 in standard leagues, Sims is falling into the tenth round in many drafts. If everything goes the same this year he’ll return huge value. In the not unlikely scenario that Martin falters or is injured Sims could even produce RB1 numbers as there isn’t any clear competition for that workhorse role on the roster. There is almost no downside to reaching a round or two to snag Sims in 2016.
Kamar Aiken (WR – BAL): ECR: 146 ADP: 214
Why he’s overlooked
Aiken didn’t truly start to shine until late last season. He now presumably has competition in the return of Steve Smith Sr. and Breshad Perriman as well as the addition of Mike Wallace. The Ravens’ offense as a whole seems to have a lot of uncertainty which is leading many to stay away entirely.
What the experts see
Aiken is already being talked up as the No. 2 receiver, but it isn’t really certain who the No. 1 is. The Ravens’ receiving squad is riddled with injured and declining players which makes it likely that Aiken will be able to claim the top spot early in the season. While he’s being drafted in the late-round flyer range I see Aiken as a safe WR3 with upside.
Dwayne Allen (TE – IND): ECR: 126 ADP: 190
Why he’s overlooked
Coby Fleener was always the clear pass-catching tight end for the Colts and therefore he was the one that got all of the hype when departing for the Saints. Allen has never maintained a significant pass-catching role and therefore isn’t going to be high on many draft boards this year.
What the experts see
Allen showed that he was a capable red zone threat in 2014 by hauling in eight touchdowns despite limited targets. When the Colts let Fleener go in free agency it showed that they have faith in Allen to take a big step this year. He is already on the field for a large share of snaps due to his blocking ability, and if he is able to develop more chemistry with Luck there is TE1 upside at an extremely low price here.
