Will Kirk Cousins continue his torrid pace from the second half of last season?

Eric Moody breaks down the fantasy value of three different quarterbacks who are entering a contract year in 2016.

Imagine you are a professional football player? Seventy thousand pairs of eyes are fixed on you while millions around the world watch you on television. You are a top performer, but have dealt with adversity like many other players. You are entering a contract year and your livelihood is on the line. Pressure raises self-awareness and anxiety about your performance. Will you execute your assignments efficiently or will you crumble under the pressure? This is the epitome of an NFL player entering a contract year season. Money talks in the NFL just like in other lines of business. The purpose of this series is to highlight notable running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends who are looking to get paid in 2016. My goal is to highlight players who have the potential to finish within the top five of their position or outperform their draft position that I am aggressively targeting. The third part of this series will focus on quarterbacks.

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Tyrod Taylor

Taylor finished 2015 as the sixteenth best fantasy quarterback. Only Cam Newton (636) had more yards rushing than Taylor (568). He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game and produced 0.56 fantasy points per touch last season. The only two quarterbacks with higher points per touch were Newton (0.62) and Russell Wilson (0.57). The common denominator with Taylor, Newton, and Wilson is their ability to use their legs to generate fantasy points. Taylor produced a ridiculous 0.77 fantasy points per rush last season. He and the Bills’ front office were unable to put together a long-term deal. The belief is that they want to see if Taylor can maintain his 2015 momentum for two straight seasons. Taylor will be looking to make a statement statistically this season to prove to the Bills’ front office that he is a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. He is currently the QB19 according to FantasyPros consensus ADP (average draft position) rankings. He is an excellent value and a perfect target for fantasy owners who prefer to wait on drafting a quarterback. 

Kirk Cousins

Cousins finished 2015 as the eighth-best fantasy quarterback. He averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game last season and generated 0.54 fantasy points per pass attempt last season. ProFootballTalk.com reported Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan did not meet Kirk Cousins’ asking price during their long-term talks because the front office believes they can find a cheaper replacement for him within the next two years. Cousins was a great fit in Jay Gruden’s offensive scheme due to his ability to throw from the pocket. The Redskins have an excellent receiving core including DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, and Pierre Garcon. The team is likely to have to lean more on their receivers due to the uncertainty of the running game heading into 2016. Another strong statistical season will be the leverage Cousins needs to negotiate a massive contract with another NFL team. He is currently the QB15 according to FantasyPros consensus ADP (average draft position) rankings. Cousins is also an excellent value and a perfect target for fantasy owners willing to wait on drafting a quarterback.

Drew Brees

Brees led the NFL in passing yards (4,870) in 2015, threw the seventh most touchdowns (32), and had the second most pass attempts (627). His passing yardage and touchdown continue have declined in each of the last three seasons, but Brees enters 2016 with the best receiving core of his career. He and the Saints front office have not actively discussed a contract extension since March. I would be surprised to see the Saints front office let him go after this season. The Saints defense will still be atrocious and the team will continue to lean on the offense. Here is a visual courtesy of the RotoViz NFL Drive app of how bad they performed last season.

Brees’ fantasy production since he has arrived in New Orleans is well documented. He is currently the QB6 according to FantasyPros consensus ADP (average draft position) rankings. Brees is one of the few early-round quarterbacks I would be open to drafting in 2016.

Conclusion

If you are a believer in targeting quarterbacks entering a contract year this article provided context on the ones I anticipate finishing within the top five or outperform their draft position. Here are my personal 2016 projections for the quarterbacks mentioned above.

What is your perspective on the quarterbacks I mentioned? Do you feel differently? Let’s connect via Twitter to have a discussion. I encourage you to follow me at @EricNMoody.

• 6 Contract Year Wide Receivers
• 3 Contract Year Running Backs

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