Can Jordy Nelson return to form in 2016?
Even in the early rounds, it’s all about value. We have all heard the saying you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it. What that saying really means is that there is minimal equity to be gained in the early rounds. Is DeAndre Hopkins likely to be a top five wide receiver this year? Yes, but he better be if you’re using a first-round pick on him.
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Most of the equity to be gained is in the later rounds. Just ask owners who selected Cam Newton or Devonta Freeman last year. Hitting it big late in the draft is a good way to win fantasy championships. Does this mean equity can’t be gained in the early rounds? Absolutely not.
2016 is shaping up to be the year of the wide receiver. They’re flying off draft boards faster than ever before. In ESPN’s latest Top 300 they have five receivers ranked inside the top 10, including three of the top four, which is a significant difference from the days when there would only be one or two.
Simply put, even in the second round Jordy Nelson is a value. In ESPN’s latest top 300 he is ranked as the eighth best wide receiver and 17th overall. The ranking is understandable. Jordy is 31 years old and coming off an ACL tear. However, fantasy championships aren’t won without taking on a little bit of risk.
In 2014, his last healthy season, Nelson had a career year. He turned a whopping 151 targets into 98 catches for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns to finish the season as the overall WR2 in fantasy football. Had he done that in 2015 with the way the industry is approaching receivers this year he would be a borderline top five pick. Nelson also has a nice floor. In his past three full seasons he has finished as the WR2, WR11, and WR2.
Of course, Nelson carries risk, but he also has two WR2 finishes on his resume. The receivers going around him – Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery – don’t have that track record.
Due to being an early-round pick, Nelson alone won’t be a league winner the way Newton or Freeman were last season, but a guy with top two receiver upside going off the board as the WR8 is someone worthy of your attention.
Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, follow him @toomuchtuma.
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