Billy Hamilton was a great value play last week

This article will be posted each week to document success in cash games on FanDuel so that we can try to discern what is important when constructing rosters. For this article, I am going to enter a $2 double up on FanDuel, and I will highlight each day of the week that I play and trends that I noticed. This is my fourth season playing DFS MLB and it is by far my favorite to play. The grind can get to you in the middle of the summer, but it’s key to keep a level head as DFS baseball is the most volatile fantasy sport.

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Before I break down last week went, I want to recap the prior week:

Week of July 11^th: $4 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $4
Average Cash Line: 120.65 fantasy points
My Average Score: 144.8 fantasy points

I will keep a running total in this spot each week.

Data Through July 24^th:

$166 entries, $172 winnings, net profit: $6
Average Cash Line: 134.06 fantasy points
My Average Score: 138.13 fantasy points

Monday (7/18)        
Jose Fernandez squared off against a putrid Philadelphia offense on Monday night, so it made sense to target his high floor that comes from his strikeout rate. While he didn’t get the win, he still produced 55 fantasy points, which was a little more than a third of my overall scoring. Mike Leake ($6,900) was also a viable option if you really wanted to load up on hitters, but I just wasn’t comfortable risking it in cash games (he did score 60 fantasy points), which was echoed by his ownership levels (6.7%). Despite locking up $12,000 of my total salary on Fernandez, I did so with confidence due to some value hitters being available in good situations. It all started for me with Billy Hamilton ($2,600) and Justin Upton ($2,300), two hitters who certainly can make owner’s stomachs churn. The salaries were just too low, however, given their individual situations. Hamilton scored 33.4 fantasy points, which stemmed from three stolen bases on the defensively challenged A.J. Pierzynski. Upton was also in a good spot against Ricky Nolasco, and he responded with 21.7 fantasy points. The Cubs were facing an ailing Steven Matz, so I looked towards Kris Bryant (15.2 fantasy points) and Javier Baez (15.2 fantasy points). All in all, it was a strong start to the week.

$2 double up, 451 entries
Cash line: 141.3 FanDuel Points
My score: 158.5 FanDuel Points, 117^th place finish, $4 winnings
Weekly Totals: $2 entries, $4 winnings, net profit: $2
Overall Totals: $156 entries, $160 winnings, net profit: $4

Tuesday (7/19)
Tuesday was tricky in regards to pitching, with Jake Arrieta not representing a must-play in cash games due to a high salary and recent struggles. Carlos Martinez against the Padres was the logical choice, but the weather in St. Louis soured quickly, so I was forced to shift to Vincent Velasquez against the Marlins. Velasquez struck out just five hitters, but he did allow just one run in seven innings. Without the win, it wasn’t quite the production we needed from our starter (33 fantasy points). Luckily there were some hitters to bail me out that night. David Ortiz (25.7 fantasy points), Marcus Semien (21.2 fantasy points), Rougned Odor (15 fantasy points) and Mike Trout (21.4 fantasy points) all were in good situations, so it made sense to target them in my lineups. This enabled me to absorb a zero and three hitters scoring six fantasy points or less to go with a shaky outing from my pitcher.

$2 double up, 451 entries
Cash line: 123.2 FanDuel Points
My score: 128.3 FanDuel Points, 152^nd place finish, $4 winnings
Weekly Totals: $4 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $4
Overall Totals: $158 entries, $164 winnings, net profit: $6

Wednesday (7/20)
The main slate on Wednesday night left a lot to be desired in regards to starting pitching. Michael Pineda was the top target as he likely was going to be facing a watered down lineup (no Chris Davis). Pineda scored 54 fantasy points, so I certainly was well on my way. Jonathan Villar (24.7 fantasy points) and Mike Trout (15.2 fantasy points) were my bright spots, but I just didn’t have enough of hitters from Boston and/or Washington (just David Ortiz and Daniel Murphy). This ultimately ended up being my demise, as those two games had combined scores of 18 runs and nine runs respectively.

$2 double up, 451 entries
Cash line: 148.3 FanDuel Points
My score: 130.5 FanDuel Points, 313^th place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $6 entries, $8 winnings, net profit: $2
Overall Totals: $160 entries, $164 winnings, net profit: $4

Friday (7/22)
Scoring was depressed on Friday night, but I was able to sort through a difficult batch of starting pitchers and put forth a good line. Lance McCullers ($8,800) and Matt Shoemaker ($8,700) were facing each other, with both offering solid potential while not breaking the bank. I sided with Shoemaker (29 fantasy points), but he was vastly outperformed by McCullers (63 fantasy points). To make matters sting just a bit more, I had an extra $100 after constructing my lineup, so the lineup article I wrote on Friday really could have been top-notch. Nonetheless, going the mid-tier route at pitching freed up some funds to spend on hitting, which I nailed. Miguel Cabrera (31.2 fantasy points), Daniel Murphy (18.7 fantasy points), Billy Hamilton (33.4 fantasy points) and Miguel Sano (15.5 fantasy points) all had strong performances to anchor my lineup.

$2 double up, 451 entries
Cash line: 105.5 FanDuel Points
My score: 152.5 FanDuel Points, 313^th place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $8 entries, $12 winnings, net profit: $4
Overall Totals: $162 entries, $168 winnings, net profit: $6

Saturday (7/23)
The fun continued Saturday night as I kept the momentum going with another solid cash. Max Scherzer ($11,800) was the top option on the hill as he faced the Padres, and while he didn’t get the win, he still produced 45 fantasy points. I had to take three zeroes, but I was saved by Hanley Ramirez (31.7 fantasy points), Jean Segura (15.2 fantasy points), Miguel Sano (30.9 fantasy points), Billy Hamilton (12.2 fantasy points) and Ben Revere (15.7 fantasy points). Ramirez stuck out at $2,800, as Boston had an implied run total pushing six runs against Ricky Nolasco. Sano felt a bit too cheap given his power upside against lefties in a park that really feeds right-handed power, despite facing David Price. Hamilton was again in my lineup, which was a result of softer pricing earlier in the week coupled with him finding his way on base a bit more recently.

$2 double up, 113 entries
Cash line: 122.5 FanDuel Points
My score: 150.7 FanDuel Points, 18^th place finish, $4 winnings
Weekly Totals: $10 entries, $16 winnings, net profit: $6
Overall Totals: $164 entries, $172 winnings, net profit: $8

Sunday (7/24)
Sunday was a tricky slate as I went the value route at pitching with Jameson Taillon ($6,800) in an effort to load up on hitters. That strategy didn’t ultimately doom me (missed cashing by just four fantasy points), which is evidenced by having four hitters score 24 fantasy points or more. I took my lone zero from Josh Donaldson, which really hurt. I missed out on Houston, which was a self-inflicted wound as I chose to eschew them despite knowing they were in a phenomenal situation against Tim Lincecum. Despite knowing this, I still was excruciatingly close by going my own way, but that doesn’t ease the sting.

$2 double up, 113 entries
Cash line: 149.7 FanDuel Points
My score: 145.1 FanDuel Points, 61^st place finish, $0 winnings
Weekly Totals: $12 entries, $16 winnings, net profit: $4
Overall Totals: $166 entries, $172 winnings, net profit: $6

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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.