Gerrit Cole makes for a nice DraftKings value play for Friday night
Full slate on a Friday night and it’s going to be a good one! Nearly all of the games have an over/under of 8.0 or more.
The Twins at Red Sox currently have the same over/under (10.5) as Coors Field. Only two games have an over/under below 8.0. The Giants at Yankees (7.0) and Rangers at Royals (7.5). Tanner Roark and Gerrit Cole weigh in as the biggest favorite(s) with both the lines currently sitting at -230.
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Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner (SF): $13,000 @ NYY
Bumgarner comes in as the top-priced pitcher across the industry tonight and rightly so. The Yankees have the second lowest strikeout rate (17.2%) against left-handed pitching this season, which may shy potential owners away. You can throw that strikeout rate out the window when it comes to an elite pitcher like Bum and his 28.8% strikeout rate this season, which is a career high.
The Yankees have the third lowest projected team total (TT) tonight at 3.72 and aren’t very good against left-handed pitching. They have the third lowest ISO (.131), fifth lowest wRC+ (87) and fourth lowest wOBA (.304). Bumgarner grades out as my highest ranked pitcher tonight in all formats.
Gerrit Cole (PIT): $7,400 vs. PHI
Cole returned from the disabled list on July 16 and was only able to go four innings while allowing four earned runs on seven hits and two walks. Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington mentioned that Cole “reported no problems” after his start.
The Phillies have the lowest projected TT tonight at 3.28 and Cole’s salary is far too cheap for his matchup at home in PNC Park. The Phillies have the third lowest wRC+ (81) and third lowest wOBA (.295) against right-handed pitching this season and get a huge downgrade in park factor.
Cole will likely be a chalky option in all formats but given that it is a full slate, percentages aren’t usually through the roof on any given player. You can feel free to get exposure to Cole tonight in all formats.
Catcher
Welington Castillo (ARI): $2,600 @ CIN
The catcher position is usually a position worth punting and tonight is no different. Castillo has been extremely cold but this lineup only had $2,800 in salary left and Castillo still garners home run upside and he can’t kill you at $2,600.
The Diamondbacks and Reds have a respectable game total of 9.5 and the Diamondbacks don’t get a huge downgrade in park factor in Cincinnati. This is merely a punt option that provides salary relief and upside.
First Base
Brandon Belt (SF): $3,300 @ NYY
Belt hasn’t been seeing the ball too well lately but I have a feeling that Yankee Stadium and the short porch in right field could be the cure to his funk. Belt is having a phenomenal season and has crushed the ball on the road against right-handed pitching with a .413 wOBA, 168 wRC+, .259 ISO. Due to Belt’s recent slump his ownership could be lower than it should be and his salary of $3,300 is laughable. Belt is a very high point-per-dollar play and is one of my favorite tournament options tonight.
Second Base
Ben Zobrist (CHC): $4,100 @ MIL
Zobrist is only $4,100, hitting in Milwaukee, facing a pitcher who struggles against left-handed hitters. The Cubs have a decent 4.56 projected TT and Zobrist will hit at the top of the lineup. Zobrist is mashing right-handed pitching on the road this season with a .396 wOBA, 149 wRC+, .216 ISO.
Jimmy Nelson is allowing a .575 FIP with a meager 15.0% strikeout rate while allowing a massive 38.7% hard hit rate against left-handed hitters at home this season. I love the park shift for the Cubs and with there being a full slate their ownership percentages won’t be high.
Third Base
Miguel Sano (MIN): $4,100 @ BOS
Sano or Kris Bryant could fill this position due to their multi-position eligibility on DraftKings. This game has all the makings to add more dents to the Green Monster in left field at Fenway Park. Do yourself a favor and get exposure to Miguel Sano tonight. He is always on one my favorite tournament options that goes low-owned while provide multi-home run upside. Sano has feasted off left-handed pitching on the road this season with a .455 wOBA, 189 wRC+ and a .316 ISO.
Shortstop
Brandon Crawford (SF): $4,000 @ NYY
Crawford is one of the best shortstops in baseball and doesn’t seem to get as much respect as he should. Crawford doesn’t have extreme splits and sees the ball well from either handedness of pitcher with a .330 wOBA. I will have plenty of exposure to Brandon Crawford and his teammate Brandon Belt this weekend while they get their rare chance to hit at Yankee Stadium.
Outfield
Kris Bryant (CHC): $4,900 @ MIL
Jason Heyward (CHC): $3,300 @ MIL
Adam Eaton (CWS): $3,100 vs. DET
Bryant is arguably the NL MVP at this point in the season and probably won’t be slowed down tonight in Milwaukee against Jimmy Nelson. The handedness of the pitcher really doesn’t matter and Bryant gets a positive shift in park factor at Miller Park. Bryant owns a .434 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .313 ISO against right-handed pitching on the road this season.
Heyward is having a down year and his salary has dipped along with his spot in the lineup. This play is strictly due to targeting a left-handed hitter in the Cubs lineup at Miller Park against Nelson with the upside that JHey can still provide.
Eaton is a fun player to roster when he is going right. Eaton has looked well of late and his matchup against Michael Fulmer will surely keep his ownership down. Eaton is a player that can get you points in many different ways and if all of those cylinders click, you have an awesome tournament player.
Recommended Tournament Lineup
Madison Bumgarner (SF): $13,00 @ NYY
Gerrit Cole (PIT): $7,400 vs. PHI
Welington Castillo (ARI): $2,600 @ CIN
Brandon Belt (SF): $3,300 @ NYY
Ben Zobrist (CHC): $4,100 @ MIL
Miguel Sano (MIN): $4,100 @ BOS
Brandon Crawford (SF): $4,000 @ NYY
Kris Bryant (CHC): $4,900 @ MIL
Jason Heyward (CHC): $3,300 @ MIL
Adam Eaton (CWS): $3,100 vs. DET
If you have any questions or need suggestions, feel free to tweet me at anytime. Best of luck tonight!
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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.
