Eddie Lacy is one of the more polarizing players entering the 2016 season
We’re taking a look at one of the most polarizing fantasy players entering the 2016 season, Packers RB Eddie Lacy. Following an extremely disappointing 2015 campaign, in which he carried an ADP of No. 3 overall entering the season, Lacy is currently sporting an Expert Consensus Ranking of No. 24 overall and RB11. We’ve selected two experts, one that is higher than the consensus rankings for Lacy and one that is lower, to provide their dissenting opinions. Derek Lofland of Fantasy Football Maniax has Lacy as the No. 13 overall player (RB5) while DraftStars’ Adam Sutton considers the Packers’ rusher as the No. 41 overall player (RB16). Here’s a recent email exchange the experts had about their rankings for Lacy.
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Derek:
Eddie Lacy is a great value this year because many people soured on him when he had only 946 yards from scrimmage and five rushing touchdowns. A big problem last year was injuries and being out of shape. While no one is sure what weight Lacy played at in 2015, the consensus seems to be that it was around the 260-pound mark. That is too heavy for a running back to play at, and Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy let it be known at the end of last season that Lacy needed to be closer to his college weight of 235 pounds.
If Lacy were still in the 260-pound area and not taking that advice seriously, I would have him at an RB4 or lower. He has been working out with P90X creator Tony Horton all off-season and the result has been that he has lost about 20 pounds and looks much leaner. Good conditioning and a healthy lifestyle should allow Lacy to return to an RB1 after a terribly disappointing 2015 season.
Adam:
Lacy certainly had a tough year in 2015, which likely left fantasy owners with buyer’s remorse. With all of the news circulating that he has lost weight and is in better shape, there could be a bit of artificial inflation in his draft stock. While it’s still a bargain if he does return to form, I need to see it happen first. As fantasy owners, we have to take chances and step into the unknown, but I have some trepidation that this issue could resurface. Will he be able to maintain his weight all season?
Derek:
There is an old saying, “Fool Me Once Shame on You, Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me.” I can see where Lacy skeptics do not want to have the burden of drafting Lacy high this year and being burned with a second consecutive mediocre campaign. However, a big motivation for him is going to be a contract year. When Lacy was drafted in the second-round back in 2013, he signed a four-year, $3.392 million contract. While that is a good sum of money, it is nothing compared to the contract he could command if he is a Top-6 fantasy running back this year, similar to what he was in 2012 and 2013 when he was in NFL shape.
If his problem were drugs or alcohol, I would be a little more skeptical that he could overcome those demons, we see players throw away money all the time due to addiction to drugs and alcohol. His problem was food and conditioning and he seems to have received the memo loud and clear by how he has trained this offseason. Similar to Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Doug Martin last year, I think Lacy will have the motivation to keep up his conditioning and diet so that he can stay healthy and cash in with the Green Bay Packers or in NFL free agency in 2017. A contract year gives me a ton of confidence in Lacy having a big season.
Adam:
I would counter that “contract year motivation” is conjecture, as no evidence supports this theory. The nature of NFL contracts actually further pushes this theory to the side, as contracts are low and less guaranteed when compared to the NBA or MLB. I am not saying owners shouldn’t like Lacy, but I am exercising caution as well as noting that the reasoning shouldn’t be him entering a contract year. I definitely hedging my shares heading into 2016, and will take the lumps if I am undervaluing him. No matter what the weight issue was, it still was an issue and I am taking a wait and see approach with Lacy as a result.
Derek:
I agree with Adam that there is no evidence that the majority of players in contract years always have good years. However, Lacy was sixth among fantasy running backs in 2013 and 2014 according to Pro Football Reference, so he has shown that when in good physical condition, he can perform at a RB1 level. The Packers will also have WR Jordy Nelson back from injury and TE Jared Cook was signed in free agency. They also drafted promising Indiana T Jason Spriggs in the second round. The offense should be much improved over last year, which will help Lacy have a rebound season in addition to his improved conditioning.
I am in a similar boat to Adam; I will take my lumps if I am wrong about Lacy. I have been wrong about players in the past and there is no guarantee that being in shape and in a contract year will mean that Lacy can maintain that conditioning throughout the season. However, I think there is an excellent opportunity to draft a player that has RB1 upside at a reasonable price, which makes Lacy one of the better bargains in fantasy football this year.
