Don’t be fooled by his ERA, Pineda’s xFIP is 7th in baseball
Welcome to the Monday edition of the FanDuel value plays. We have a nice 11 game slate tonight, but there are three games that have a threat of rain tonight (STL at NYM, DET at BOS and COL at BAL). Be sure to check the team lineups as they are released to make sure these recommendations are actually in the lineup. Let’s go ahead and take a look at some value plays for tonight.
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Pitcher
Michael Pineda (NYY): $8,100 at HOU
Since there are safer options on the slate, this recommendation is better suited for GPPs. Michael Pineda has pitched much better than his 5.25 ERA indicates, considering he has a 3.88 FIP. The Astros can be a dangerous team at times, but they definitely have their share of strikeouts with a 23.7% K%. If Pineda can just limit his walks tonight he could be a sneaky option with great upside.
- Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $8,600 vs. HOU
Catcher
Victor Martinez (DET): $2,900 at BOS
There really aren’t any solid value catcher options at the moment, so I probably will be paying up for someone in the middle tier. However, if you do want to take a shot at a value catcher I recommend trying out Victor Martinez in a GPP lineup. Martinez has historically crushed left-handed pitching over his career with a 0.370 wOBA and a 0.181 ISO. Although Drew Pomeranz has pitched well this season, I am expecting some regression since his new destination requires facing the DH more often and is a negative park shift for pitchers.
First Base
Justin Smoak (TOR): $2,800 vs. SD
The Blue Jays have a great matchup tonight against Colin Rea, who has struggled this season with a 4.81 FIP. Also, Justin Smoak has done pretty well against right-handed pitchers this season with a 0.339 wOBA and a 0.211 ISO.
- Tommy Joseph (PHI): $2,700 at MIA
Second Base
Derek Dietrich (MIA): $2,500 vs. PHI
Jeremy Hellickson has been a reverse splits pitcher his entire career. However, he has struggled against left-handed hitters as well allowing a 0.345 wOBA this. Dietrich typically hits in the middle of the order for the Marlins against right-handed pitchers and he has excelled with a 0.362 wOBA against righties.
- Starlin Castro (NYY): $2,400 at HOU
Third Base
Danny Valencia (OAK): $2,700 at TEX
Danny Valencia has cooled off some recently, but he still smashes left-handed pitchers with a 0.436 wOBA and a 0.244 ISO against left-handed pitchers. Valencia and the Athletics also get a nice park shift to Texas against Martin Perez, who we should not fear.
- Alex Rodriguez (NYY): $2,400 at HOU
Shortstop
J.J. Hardy (BAL): $2,500 vs. COL
Similar to catcher, I’ll probably be looking to pay up at shortstop unless a surprise value option pops up when lineups are released. If you do decide go the value route here I suggest using J.J. Hardy. Hardy has been okay this season against left-handed pitchers with a 0.314 wOBA and a 0.185 ISO. He has a great matchup tonight against Jorge de la Rosa, who has allowed a 0.391 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.
Outfielders
Travis Jankowski (SD): $2,300 at TOR
I wouldn’t pick on Aaron Sanchez too much since he has pitched well this season. However, if you want to punt an outfield spot consider using Travis Jankowski. Jankowski has done a great job in the leadoff spot against right-handed pitchers with a 0.352 wOBA. He’s also a threat to steal multiple bases in any particular game.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis (MIL): $2,900 vs. ARI
One of my favorite things to do is target hot bats and Kirk Nieuwenhuis is starting to heat up with three home runs and five RBI over the weekend. Tonight he has a decent matchup against Braden Shipley, who is making his first major league start.
Jake Smolinski (OAK): $2,600 at TEX
Jake Smolinski is another value A’s player who we can use in a great park shift to Texas. Smolinski has been great against left-handed pitching this season with a 0.499 wOBA and a 0.380 ISO in a small sample size of 56 plate appearances.
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Kaz is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kaz, follow him @DraftStars_Kaz. You can find more of Kaz’s work at DraftStars.net.
