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Overhyped or Overlooked – ECR vs ADP (Part Two)

Overhyped or Overlooked – ECR vs ADP (Part Two)
C.J._Anderson_Broncos

Where do the experts stand on C.J. Anderson this season?

Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes the disparity between the Expert Consensus Ranking and Average Draft Position.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.

There’s always a gap between how fantasy football experts and the masses view any given player. This could be due to off-season news, injuries, clouded perception of last year’s performance or any number of other factors. Using FantasyPros’  Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and Consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) I’ve identified two players at each position that the experts and the public can’t agree on; one that is getting overhyped and another that is being overlooked and could provide huge value at their current ADP.

Overhyped

Cam Newton (QB – CAR): ECR: 31 ADP: 23

Why he’s overhyped
Cam Newton had an amazing season in 2015 and the pieces seem to be in place for him to repeat this year. In addition to his returning receivers, Kelvin Benjamin is on track to come back at full strength from his torn ACL which could provide another facet to Newton’s passing game.

What the experts see
While last year’s performance was extremely impressive, when you look at his career performance as whole there is some room for regression in Newton’s game. Last year’s 35 passing touchdowns was a substantial improvement over his previous career clip of 20 per season. Even if he does manage to repeat that efficiency Newton offers no value in the second round considering how deep the quarterback position is this year.

Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL): ECR: 21 ADP: 16

Why he’s overhyped
Freeman was a breakout star that very few saw coming in 2015. Using his ability in the passing game he was able to win many owners multiple weeks in the first half of the season. The Falcons didn’t add anybody of note at the running back position which leads many to believe that Freeman could repeat his performance in 2016.

What the experts see
It’s easy to forget that Freeman was beat out by Tevin Coleman in last year’s preseason and was only handed the starting role due to injury last year. With the potential for Coleman’s increased workload as well as a beefed up receiving squad, I don’t believe they will be forced to rely on Freeman to the same extent they did last year. Freeman will still be the running back to own in this offense but he’s a risky pick in the early to mid second round.

Kelvin Benjamin (WR – CAR): ECR: 44 ADP: 36

Why he’s overhyped
Benjamin had a solid rookie season with over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Panthers had a potent passing offense last year despite the absence of their young star receiver. If the offense continues to ascend there is reason to believe that Benjamin will be an integral part of that.

What the experts see
Returning from a torn ACL is no easy feat which makes a repeat of Benjamin’s 2014 performance, let alone an improvement, no guarantee. The Panthers figured out a way to get things done without him involved in the passing game and were far more efficient than previous years in the process. With a third round ADP, there is very little room for value in drafting Benjamin this year.

Delanie Walker (TE – TEN): ECR: 73 ADP: 66

Why he’s overhyped
Walker was a target hog in the Titans’ offense last year with 94 receptions for 1,088 yards. As the top safety blanket for Marcus Mariota many believe he will be able to replicate or even improve on this performance in 2016.

What the experts see
The Titans made it very clear how they want to win games when they traded for DeMarco Murray and drafted Derrick Henry during the off-season. They also added Tajae Sharpe who is competing with Dorial Green-Beckham for a starting role if you believe the pre-season hype. All signs point to less targets to go around in Tennessee which could mean that Walker has difficulty living up to his ADP.

Overlooked

Matthew Stafford (QB – DEN): ECR: 122 ADP: 141

Why he’s overlooked
Stafford was wildly inconsistent for a large portion of 2015 which put a bad taste in the mouth of many fantasy owners. With Calvin Johnson‘s retirement there is a large void in the receiving game that no individual receiver will be able to fill.

What the experts see
Looking at the game splits from last year there was a substantial improvement in Stafford’s game once Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator. While Johnson’s departure may take away a certain facet of their game I believe it will also allow the Lions to more efficiently spread the ball around. If Stafford can replicate his second half numbers from last year he will be a top 12 candidate that can be drafted in the vicinity of many back caliber quarterbacks.

C.J. Anderson (RB – DEN): ECR: 30 ADP: 37

Why he’s overlooked
The Broncos chose to utilize a RBBC last year, much to the detriment of those that drafted Anderson in the first or second round. It was impossible to tell which week he would be a viable starter which led to him either being traded or dropped in many leagues.

What the experts see
During their playoff run the Broncos relied on Anderson to carry the load when it really counted. If Ronnie Hillman manages to make the 53 man roster it’s hard to believe they will give him anywhere near the same amount of touches he received last year and Devontae Booker will likely be a non-factor to start the season. The Broncos willingness to sign Anderson’s $18 million contract clearly demonstrates that they view Anderson as “their guy” in 2016 and beyond.

Willie Snead (WR – NO): (WR – NO): ECR: 99 ADP: 118

Why he’s overlooked
Brandin Cooks and Coby Fleener are the two New Orleans players getting a lot of love this year. It is presumed that they will be getting a huge portion of the targets leaving little for the rest of the receivers. Snead was a virtual unknown coming into last season and barely made onto the radar despite a great breakout performance.

What the experts see
Drew Brees has consistently been good for approximately 5,000 yards for the last six seasons which is impressive, even in the current age of pass happy offenses. Even if Snead find himself the third target in New Orleans (which I find unlikely) there are plenty of yards to go around. I expect an increase in targets, yardage and touchdowns which would easily make him a WR2/WR3 candidate this year. This is incredibly out of synch with his current ADP.

Zach Miller (TE – Chi): ECR: 100 ADP: 120

Why he’s overlooked
Miller had limited work in the passing game last year. While he performed well when called upon the limited sample size despite his tenure in the NFL leads many to doubt whether he is a starting caliber tight end. There are also quite a few question marks around whether Jay Cutler can maintain his efficiency from last year.

What the experts see
Miller is now the clear cut top tight end in Chicago. In 2015 he was able to replicate Bennett’s yardage despite starting fewer games. If Cutler is able to replicate his efficiency from last year and Miller maintains his trust then there is definitely top 10 upside here in the double digit rounds.

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