On top of having a favorable early-season schedule, Matt Ryan also has a good Week 9 (Patriots’ bye week) matchup
It’s official. Tom Brady will sit out the first four games of the regular season. The question now isn’t, “Should I draft Brady or not?” The question is, “Who do I draft to fill his spot for the first four weeks?”
Brady is still a top 10 QB despite the suspension, and a good replacement QB plus Brady could add up to a top five QB by the end of the season. The following five QBs are later round guys that, based on the matchups over the first four weeks, offer the highest upside for a fairly low price.
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Please note that ADP is as of July 17
Matthew Stafford (DET) – ADP 144
- @ Colts
- vs Titans
- @ Packers
- @ Bears
Stafford is one of my favorites to be a good replacement over the first four weeks of the season. He has a favorable schedule, and I could see the Colts and Packers games becoming shootouts. His ADP is low enough that you won’t have to pass on any high upside RBs or WRs to draft him, and once Brady comes back, you can feel comfortable dropping him.
Jay Cutler (CHI) – ADP 199
- @ Texans
- vs Eagles
- @ Cowboys
- vs Lions
The first game of the season may be a bit unappealing, but the other three games are against sub-par defenses. Cutler is going undrafted in some leagues, so you won’t have to waste a good pick on him. You can have him in the last round before you take your kicker and defense.
Matt Ryan (ATL) – ADP 152
- vs Buccaneers
- @ Raiders
- @ Saints
- vs Panthers
It’s no secret that I’m not a fan of Ryan this year, but as a four-week fill-in for Brady, he could be viable. The Panthers game in Week 4 doesn’t look all that appealing, but the Falcons do play the Panthers tough in Atlanta. If you remember, it was the Falcons that ended the Panthers’ bid for a perfect season last year.
Ryan has the bonus of having a good matchup against the Buccaneers Week 9, Brady’s bye week, so you could hold on to him to cover the bye week as well. The other QBs on this list either have bad matchups or are on byes themselves in Week 9.
Derek Carr (OAK) – ADP 111
- @ Saints
- vs Falcons
- @ Titans
- @ Ravens
Carr has by far the best schedule of any the QBs I’ve mentioned, but he is also the one you will have to reach the most for. Three of the four games are away, but the Saints and Falcons had historically bad defenses last year, and the Ravens and Titans weren’t much better.
A perfect storm would be if Carr has four great games against weak competition, and when Brady comes back, you can sell high on Carr. He may be the only QB on my list with any trade value after the first four games.
Kirk Cousins (WAS) – ADP 126
- vs Steelers
- vs Cowboys
- @ Giants
- vs Browns
Steelers and Giants could be improved defenses over last year, but the Cowboys and Browns figure to be bad once more. The fact that three of the four games will be in Washington bodes well for Cousins. His ADP is a little higher than I would like from a replacement QB that won’t hold much trade value, but those home games would be nice.
Geoff Lambert is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can read more from Geoff by visiting his site GoingFor2.com or follow him on Twitter @GeoffLambert77.
