Le’Veon Bell’s outlook beyond 2016 is very troubling

R.C. Fischer discusses the dynasty impact of the Le’Veon Bell suspension.

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If you own Le’Veon Bell in fantasy today, a lot of air just got let out of your 2016 fantasy season balloon. You might have DeAngelo Williams as a handcuff to soothe the pain, but the pain still runs deeper for some of you (more on that in a moment). For those Le’Veon owners without the DeAngelo insurance policy…you might be wondering if you can get your 2016 league fees refunded, and skip out of your league unnoticed. You never liked the guys and gals in that league anyway.

It’s a bad day to be in the Le’Veon Bell business. Real bad.

We all know the immediate fantasy ripple effect of Bell being out for a period of time. We’ve seen this movie before — last year. We all know it’s ‘stock up’ for Williams, an RB1 for however long the Bell suspension might be. We all know it’s some amount of ‘stock down’ for Bell, who is a universal top pick in any draft today…or at least was before today. The transfer of power/fantasy stats goes to Williams for a spell. We all know this.

But what about those who possess Bell in dynasty formats? Your worst nightmares are coming true. Bell is the kind of fantasy running back we all seem comfortable overlooking a lot of things about. Smoking weed with LeGarrette Blount, and thus a minor suspension last year? No problem! Horrific leg injury in 2015? It’s OK, he’ll be back better than ever this year!!

How are you going to excuse this latest rumor/news?

The long-term outlook on Le’Veon Bell just went from a mild concern you try not to think about to a full-scale crisis. You have two problems to worry about:

1) If Bell skipped out on a drug test (or multiple tests), that means there is a SERIOUS issue. He didn’t make a simple calendar snafu — he already had a drug mark on his record, so the ramifications of a missed test would be obvious. This probably was not an ‘honest mistake.’ Fantasy GMs can only surmise that Bell, most likely, cannot be trusted to stay out of trouble moving forward – and you’ve seen talented players throwing away their careers being stupid a bunch of times over the past few years. Bell is walking the same crooked path. It’s a problem now…and you have to assume it will be moving forward as well. Next time, he’ll be joining Martavis Bryant in a year off without pay/fantasy stats.

Considering Bell is a free agent to be, and wants to be the league’s highest-paid running back – this ‘missed’ test also ensures millions of dollars lost. It’s a serious problem Bell is dealing with, and it looks like he is more attached to ‘it’ than earning future millions. That’s a major issue going forward.

2) The Steelers will likely be done with Bell at season’s end. Are you as excited about Le’Veon as a Jacksonville Jaguar or Cleveland Brown? The Steelers normally don’t mess around with this type of problem player. They certainly are not going to give him a massive contract extension. You know some other desperate team will roll the dice. Bell is all but done in Pittsburgh. Was there really that big of a drop-off in offense with DeAngelo vs. Le’Veon?  How valuable is Bell, in non-fantasy terms?

I don’t think Bell’s extreme PPR fantasy production is all of his creation. I believe the Pittsburgh offense takes something great with Bell and makes it magical. You probably don’t get the same eye-popping PPR numbers with Bell on many other teams. What if Bell lands in a bad non-Steelers spot in 2017? It could be a fantasy feeling described as the difference between possessing DeMarco Murray in November 2014 vs. one year later.

Dynasty GMs have put up with a lot, ignoring many warning signs with Bell…but this new revelation cannot be easily whisked away. The problems can no longer be ignored. You’re likely to have, at most, 11 fantasy games left (if you’re lucky) with Bell as a Steeler. The thought of that should make Le’Veon owners cry in their pillows tonight…on a number of levels.

Today likely marks the fantasy tipping point on Le’Veon Bell. The general mood is going to shift from blind trust to severe skepticism. Several dark clouds still lie ahead. Those clouds were always there in 2016, we all just tried to pretend they weren’t.

If all these rumors turn out to be false…forget you read half of this. I still think the 2017 change of teams is likely, and of some concern.