With Dion Lewis out, will Blount get the lions share of the carries?
The running back position has been a fading commodity in today’s NFL, however, in fantasy football, it is making its way back to prominence. With up and coming talents that include Todd Gurley and David Johnson headlining the position’s ADP, there are a plethora of players outside of the top 30 who appear poised for a big year. Below, we will take a look at some of the potential sleepers at the running back position entering the 2016 fantasy football campaign.
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Rashad Jennings (NYG) – ADP: RB34, Overall 91
If you’ve read any of my previous work this offseason, you would see a number of players from the New York Giants on my lists as the are primed to be an offensive juggernaut in 2016, and this one is not any different. Rashad Jennings is coming off of his best statistical season as a pro in 2015 as well as being the first time in his six-year career that he never missed a game. In 16 contests, he rushed for 863 yards and three touchdowns including two 100-yard rushing games. Jennings also caught 29-of-40 targets for 296 yards and a score to add to his totals. The veteran rusher finished the campaign as the 20th ranked running back in total fantasy points scored with 135.9 and an 8.5 FPPG average.
In 2016, Jennings is expected to be the lead back in a by-committee approach as he was for the past two seasons. However, the players that follow him on New York’s depth chart could never produce enough statistically to cut into Jennings’ production with the exception of Shane Vereen, who is the club’s primary receiver out of the backfield. Andre Williams and Paul Perkins are not legitimate threats to Jennings but the rookie could receive his opportunities this year as he is an unknown at the pro level.
The Giants are expected to emerge as one of the NFL’s best offenses in 2016 and Jennings will have a role in their success or failure. Of course, the unit lives and dies on the performance of Eli Manning and his tremendous cast of wideouts that include Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard, but the running game will have to contribute its share of the production to provide a balance to the offense. Jennings is an outstanding value at his RB34 ADP for a player who will likely once again crack the top 20 in total fantasy points scored by year’s end. He should be considered a low-end RB2/ Flex who garners more reward than risk in the upcoming fantasy football campaign.
Danny Woodhead (SD) – ADP: RB35, Overall 82
Since joining the San Diego Chargers in 2013, Danny Woodhead appears to be a sleeper on a yearly basis, if he remains healthy that is. Woodhead is coming off of another season in 2015 where he was PPR gold. He caught 80-of-106 targets for 755 yards and six touchdowns adding another 335 yards and three scores on the ground. Woodhead finished the 2015 season as the 10th ranked running back with 163.1 total fantasy points and a 10.2 FPPG average over a 16-game span.
Woodhead is the No. 2 rusher on San Diego’s depth chart behind Melvin Gordon. Gordon was a disappointment, to say the least, last season and Woodhead reaped the benefits of his struggles. In 2016, Gordon’s RB26 ADP is nine spots ahead of Woodhead’s RB35 ADP, which generously boosts the scat backs value. If Gordon struggles again this season, there is a good chance that Woodhead breaks the top 15 in fantasy points scored among running backs for the second consecutive year.
San Diego employs a pass-first offense and regardless of Gordon’s production on the ground, Woodhead will see his targets as the team’s primary receiver out of the backfield. Woodhead should be considered a mid-range RB2 who has a much higher ceiling in PPR scoring formats than in standard. Nevertheless, the value at Woodhead’s #82 overall ADP overshadows the fact that he is the No. 2 back on the depth chart and he should be selected closer to the sixth round of 12-team drafts and higher if he is a player you are targeting in 2016.
LeGarrette Blount (NE) – ADP: RB41, Overall 119
LeGarrette Blount will surprisingly enter the 2016 season as the No. 1 rusher on the New England Patriots in the wake of Dion Lewis‘ knee injury. Lewis was recently given the news that he would require a second procedure on his knee that will sideline him for up to 10 weeks. He will likely begin the year on the PUP list and won’t be eligible to return until Week 7 per league rules.
Another favorable aspect surrounding Blount is that Tom Brady will also miss the first four weeks of the season as he will serve out his four-game ban stemming from Deflategate. An inexperienced Jimmy Garoppolo will start in his place which could mean that the Patriots will rely heavily on their rushing attack at least for the first quarter of 2016.
Blount is not a player to overlook by any means. He is a great fit in New England’s offense accumulating 19 total touchdowns (one receiving) since joining the club in 2013. Last season, Blount was on pace to set new career highs, but he missed four games throughout the course of the year, including the final two due to a hip injury. The Patriots roll with a by-committee approach to their backfield, but that shouldn’t hinder Blount’s fantasy draft stock as he is the team’s primary rusher. Blount should be considered a low-end RB2/ Flex in the upcoming fantasy football campaign who’s upside is 8-to-10 touchdowns if he plays a full 16-game slate.
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Anthony Cervino is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Anthony, check out h is archive or follow him on Twitter @theRealNFLguru.
