Thomas Rawls provides upside, but how will the Seahawks divide carries in 2016?
Since 2011, the Seattle backfield, led by Marshawn Lynch, has been a focal point for fantasy owners. If you drafted Lynch, you rostered a durable, almost guaranteed top RB. You saw Lynch run through defenders and appear invincible, even earning the nickname “Beast Mode.”
In 2015, Seattle struggled early with blocking as Lynch fought through injuries. In Week 3 against Chicago, Lynch was sidelined with a hamstring strain and undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls burst on the scene with 104 yards and a TD. He showed versatility, explosiveness and punished defenders at the end of runs. In a short time, he revived the Seattle running game and appeared to be the next great thing. Lynch returned for four weeks but did not deliver his usual production and eventually ended his season (and ultimately career) with a sports hernia injury.
Start preparing for your draft now with our NFL Draft Simulator 
In week 11 against San Francisco, Rawls rushed 30 times for 209 yards and a TD. He added three catches for 46 yards and another TD. Fantasy owners who used a waiver claim or spent their remaining FAAB on Rawls were instantly rewarded with 37.50 standard fantasy points. In weeks 12 and 13, Rawls finished with 14.10 and 16.30 fantasy points, respectively. It appeared Rawls’ owners had a clear path to the championship until he followed the injury theme of 2015 and fractured his ankle in Week 14.
According to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Rawls is being drafted as RB14 and 33rd overall, but not without risk. His 2015 performances are still fresh on the minds of fantasy owners, but his time off allowed other running backs to gain confidence and trust among the Seattle coaching staff. Christine Michael, the often overvalued and underachieving RB, has reemerged as a threat to Rawls after a strong finish to the 2015 season and an outstanding offseason. Michael rushed for 192 yards in three games of relief for Rawls in Weeks 15, 16, and 17 and has drawn rave reviews from coaches about his rededicated approach and sharp focus.
Also, Seattle drafted C.J. Prosise out of Notre Dame in the third round with the 90th overall pick. Prosise is big, fast and talented, but he is relatively inexperienced at RB and had a few offseason injuries that helped Michael secure his spot on the depth chart. Look for Prosise to push for playing time as the season progresses. He could be a potential lottery pick and eventually be the lead back in Seattle if either Rawls or Michael get injured, though a lot of his initial impact is expected to come in the passing game.
Fantasy Impact
Rawls undoubtedly has a high ceiling running in an ideal system where RBs flourish. And, with his 2015 volume of 20-plus touches, he was one of the safest players with one of the highest floors. Fantasy owners should draft Rawls with caution, but also with the understanding that they could be getting an RB1 in the late 3rd round. He is Seattle’s best RB, but his injury history will likely lead to a more cautious approach in his carries. In the preseason, Michael rushed 24 times for an average of 6.7 YPC. If he can produce those numbers, the Seahawks would be wise to utilize an RBBC approach and maintain the health of their RBs for a postseason run.
Draft Advice
If you draft Rawls, get Michael. Do not reach for Rawls because it would be wiser to get Michael for a much better value later in the draft. Rawls could return to his 2015 greatness, but his physical, punishing running style makes him a high-risk choice. Some might be scoffing at Michael, particularly after being burned for several years by him, but HC Pete Carroll views he and Rawls as a “1-2 punch.” Perhaps he is just building Michael’s confidence, but Michael has been impressive in the preseason.
If Rawls falls to you, draft him with confidence, but if not, draft Demaryius Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins or Carlos Hyde at a similar ADP. As for me, I still believe in Rawls’ upside. I took my advice and avoided him early and secured Michael late in the draft when others were picking defenses. As a result, I traded Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart for Thomas Rawls based on RBBC reports. Typically, this trade would not make much sense to me, but I believe in the upside and know I have Seattle’s backfield secured. My first four picks in the draft at 11, 14, 26 and 37 (made draft pick trades) were DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas and Carlos Hyde. I could have plug and played Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart depending on the matchup, but I play for championships, and I like Rawls’ upside.
How do you feel about the trade? Which side do you prefer?
Gore/Stewart or Rawls (already own Michael)
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | RSS
Brad Cowger is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brad, check out his archive and follow him @FP_BradCowger.
