Will Marcus Mariota be this season’s Blake Bortles?

This is Part IV of the Predicting the Top 10 series. This time we’re examining quarterbacks. As with the others, this is an UPDATE to last year’s piece.

Please check out:

• Part One: Running Backs
• Part Deux: Wide Receivers
• Part Three: Tight Ends

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According to Wikipedia, in theories of competition in economics, barriers to entry are obstacles that make it difficult to enter a given market.

Another kid sets up a computer repair stand. He’s worked with computers all his life and knows where motherboards go and gigabyte this and gigabyte that. I could try and replicate the business, but all I’d be able to do is locate the power button and ask gigabyte who?

The quarterback position is the hardest to project, but the easiest to evaluate. There are so many unquantifiable variables. Just read this scouting report on Jamarcus Russell. He’s big, strong, and has a cannon for an arm. That’s great, but how does he read coverages? Is he a student of the game? Does he have grasp of offensive principles? We all know how the Jamarcus experiment went. Head coach Dennis Allen didn’t feel comfortable starting him because he couldn’t get a handle on the offense. Then when he played, you could just see it…or not see IT.

We all know the story of Tom Brady; sixth-round pick to Super Bowl hero.

There are significant barriers to entry for the NFL quarterback position. You can’t just pull some guy, who was bagging groceries, off the street and have him lead the team to a Super Bowl victory.

Don’t worry. I had Kurt Warner in my mind. That just accentuates the barrier to entry aspect. Arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time had a difficult time even getting a chance to prove his mettle.

Why am I babbling about all of this? Out of all the positions, the quarterback position should be the most predictable according to ADP. We all have a sense of who’s good and who’s not. Injuries and freak things happen, so the percentage will never be perfect, but I envision a high predictability rate.

Below is a chart that shows the predictive percentage of the final top 10 quarterbacks from preseason ADP.

(Historical ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com. Historical fantasy points data courtesy of footballguys.com. Data is for standard scoring.)

Interesting. I would’ve thought most of the years would be greater than 70%. It’s definitely more predictive than for running backs and wide receivers, though.

Come take a journey with me to see if we can ascertain any nuggets of information that may shed light on the findings.

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PAST 11 YEARS

2005

The Studs

• Peyton Manning
• Trent Green
• Kerry Collins
• Michael Vick
• Tom Brady
• Matt Hasselbeck

The Disappointments

• Daunte Culpepper – Missed nine games due to injury. Had a career year in 2004 (39 touchdowns).
• Donovan McNabb – Missed seven games due to injury. Had a career year in 2004 (31 touchdowns) and led the Eagles to the Super Bowl.
• Marc Bulger – Missed eight games due to injury. Missed two games in 2004, one game in 2003, and nine games in 2002.
• Brett Favre – Threw a career high 29 interceptions. Lost linemen, Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle, in free agency. Injuries ravaged the skill positions (Javon Walker,Ahman Green, and Bubba Franks).

The Replacements

• Carson Palmer – ADP #11. Third year in the league. Became the starter in 2004 and played well.
• Eli Manning – ADP #25 – Second year in the league. As with most quarterbacks, struggled his rookie year (first start was 11/21/2004).
• Drew Bledsoe – ADP #28 – Released by the Bills in 2004, Bledsoe reunited with Bill Parcells in Dallas.
• Drew Brees – ADP #13 – Drafting of Phillip Rivers by the Chargers in 2004 muddled the air a bit in San Diego.

2006

The Studs

• Peyton Manning
• Carson Palmer
• Tom Brady
• Marc Bulger

The Disappointments

• Matt Hasselbeck – Missed four games due to injury. Led Seahawks to Super Bowl in 2005. Lost All-Pro lineman, Steve Hutchinson, in free agency. Shaun Alexander broke down.
• Eli Manning – Finished #11 QB. Stats very close to 2005.
• Donovan McNabb – Missed six games due to injury.
• Jeff Garcia – This was an interesting situation. Garcia was signed to a one-year deal in the offseason to back up Donovan McNabb, who missed seven games the prior year. Fantasy drafters were split right down the middle, placing their bets on who would win the job for Andy Reid’s explosive West Coast offense. McNabb’s ADP was #6 QB and Garcia’s ADP was #7 QB. McNabb started 10 games and Garcia started six but played in eight.
• Jake Delhomme – Missed three games due to injury.
• Daunte Culpepper – Missed 12 games due to injury. Was traded to the Dolphins. Missed nine games in 2005, two games in 2003, and five games in 2001.

The Replacements

• Drew Brees – ADP #16 – Signed with the New Orleans Saints. First year with Sean Payton. Suffered a shoulder injury in 2005, which was one of the reasons why Nick Saban chose Daunte Culpepper over him in Miami. Finished as the #2 QB.
• Michael Vick – ADP #13 – Always about health for Vick. Became the first quarterback in the modern era to rush for over 1,000 yards.
• Jon Kitna – ADP #26 – Signed with the Detroit Lions. Played decently in Super Bowl XL (2006) after Carson Palmer went down with an injury.
• Brett Favre – ADP #21 – Will he retire? Won’t he retire? I had repressed that period of time from my brain too. My brain is angry with my brain. The 2005 version of Favre was terrible, as he threw 29 interceptions with 20 touchdowns.
• Phillip Rivers – ADP #22 – Third year in the league. Became the unquestioned starter.
• Ben Roethlisberger – ADP #17 – Third year in the league. Missed one game in 2006, four in 2005, and two in 2004. Didn’t have a great year but ended as the #10 QB: 3,513 yards, 18 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, and two rushing touchdowns.

2007

The Studs

• Peyton Manning
• Carson Palmer
• Tom Brady
• Drew Brees
• Tony Romo
• Matt Hasselbeck

The Disappointments

• Marc Bulger – Missed four games due to injury. Signed a six-year, $62.5 million contract extension before the season. Multiple injuries on the offensive line. Threw more interceptions more than touchdowns for the first time in career. Extensive injury history.
• Donovan McNabb – Missed two games due to injury.
• Vince Young – Missed one game due to injury in 2007 and one game in 2006. Won NFL Rookie of the Year in 2006. Lower TD total (both passing and rushing) and increased INT total.
• Phillip Rivers – Took over the reins from Drew Brees in 2006. Norv Turner took over as head coach of the Chargers in 2007. Rivers had a decent 2007 but threw more interceptions than in 2006. Finished as the #15 QB.

The Replacements

• Derek Anderson – Was not drafted in fantasy. The epitome of a “broken clock is right twice a day.” The Browns had a quarterback “battle” with Charlie Frye, Brady Quinn, and Derek Anderson as the “combatants.” Anderson finished with 3,787 yards, 29 touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, and 19 interceptions.
• Ben Roethlisberger – ADP #13 – First year for offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. Tossed 32 touchdowns and increased ypa from 7.49 to 7.81.
• Brett Favre – ADP #16 – First year for offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Favre was 37 years old and coming off a terrible 2006 campaign.
• Kurt Warner – Was not drafted in fantasy. Matt Leinart was the starter, until he showed the world that he was Matt Leinart.

2008

The Studs

• Peyton Manning
• Tony Romo
• Drew Brees
• Donovan McNabb
• Jay Cutler

The Disappointments

• Tom Brady – Missed 15 games due to injury. Coming off historic 50 TD season. The New York Giants defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl to prohibit them from executing the perfect season.
• Carson Palmer – Missed 12 games due to injury.
• Ben Roethlisberger – Touchdown total dipped from 32 in 2007 to 17 in 2008. Lost lineman Alan Faneca. Steelers signed Roethlisberger to an eight-year, $102 million contract. The Steelers defense led the league in almost every defensive category. Had not attempted more than 469 passes in any season up to that point.
• Derek Anderson – Missed six games due to injury. Coming off a career year in which he threw 29 touchdowns.
• Matt Hasselbeck – Missed nine games due to injury. Coming off a career year in which he threw 28 touchdowns.

The Replacements

• Aaron Rodgers – ADP #18 – Favre finally retired. Rodgers became the starter.
• Kurt Warner – ADP #21 – Matt Leinart was named the starter, but coach Ken Whisenhunt said that there was a possibility that Warner could start.
• Phillip Rivers – ADP #14 – Played the AFC Championship game the prior year with a torn ACL, which required surgery. His first two years starting were decent but not earth shattering. Finished 2008 with 34 touchdowns.
• Matt Cassel – Was not drafted in fantasy – Replaced Tom Brady
• David Garrard – ADP #13 – After backing up Byron Leftwich for years, Garrard was given the keys to the team in 2007. He entered 2008 as the unquestioned starter. The rushing stats boosted his fantasy value.

2009

The Studs

• Drew Brees
• Tom Brady
• Peyton Manning
• Aaron Rodgers
• Phillip Rivers
• Tony Romo

The Disappointments

• Kurt Warner – Missed one game due to injury. Finished as the #12 QB.
• Donovan McNabb – Missed two games due to injury. Finished as the #13 QB.
• Matt Ryan – Missed two games due to injury. Second year in the league.
• Jay Cutler – Finished as the #11 QB.

The Replacements

• Matt Schaub – ADP #11 – Coming off consecutive years in which he missed five games each due to injury.
• Brett Favre – ADP #17 – Signed with the Minnesota Vikings.
• Ben Roethlisberger – ADP #13 – Coming off a Super Bowl victory the prior year. Only threw 17 touchdowns during the regular season though.
• Eli Manning – ADP #14 – Since entering the league, Manning had been about as exciting as watching paint dry. He was going to play 16 games, throw for 3,250 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. His floor was established. 2009 marked the time when Eli took that next step up: 4,000 yards and 25+ touchdowns.

2010

The Studs

• Aaron Rodgers
• Drew Brees
• Peyton Manning
• Tom Brady
• Matt Schaub
• Phillip Rivers

The Disappointments

• Tony Romo – Missed 10 games due to injury.
• Joe Flacco – Finished as the #12 QB.
• Brett Favre – Final season in the NFL. Missed three games due to injury.
• Kevin Kolb – Became the starter after sitting on the bench his first three years in the league. Donovan McNabb was traded to the Redskins. Missed nine games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Michael Vick – Was not drafted in fantasy – Second year of the Michael Vick rejuvenation tour. Vick got his chance after Kevin Kolb got injured.
• Eli Manning – ADP #14 – Continued to progress as he crossed 30 touchdowns for the first time.
• Josh Freeman – ADP #32 – Second year in the league. Played as a rookie and had his struggles. Unquestioned starter entering the 2010 season.
• Matt Ryan – ADP #11 – Third year in the league. Missed two games in 2009. First two years showed that he belonged in the league.

2011

The Studs

• Aaron Rodgers
• Tom Brady
• Drew Brees
• Phillip Rivers
• Tony Romo
• Matt Ryan

The Disappointments

• Michael Vick – Missed three games due to injury. Missed four games in 2010, four games in 2009, one in 2005, one in 2004, 11 in 2003, one in 2002, and eight in 2001. Still finished as the #11 QB.
• Peyton Manning – Missed the whole season due to injury.
• Matt Schaub – Missed six games due to injury. Coming off career year in which he threw for 29 touchdowns.
• Ben Roethlisberger – Missed one game due to injury. Missed four in 2010, one in 2009, one in 2007, one in 2006, four in 2005, and two in 2004. Finished as the #13 QB.

The Replacements

• Cam Newton – ADP #24 – Rookie year. 4,051 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 706 rushing yards, and 14 rushing touchdowns.
• Matthew Stafford – ADP #11 – Third year in the league. Missed 13 games in 2010 and six in 2009. Threw for 5,038 yards with 41 touchdowns to finish as the #5 QB.
• Eli Manning – ADP #13 – Ho hum. Every year he gets drafted as either the #13 or #14 quarterback. Every year he ends of replacing someone in the top 10. When’s a brother gonna get some love? Eli threw for a career high 4,933 yards, 29 touchdowns, and a 8.38 ypa. His previous ypa high was 7.90.
• Mark Sanchez – ADP #18 – Third year in the league. Was named team captain prior to the 2011 season. Sanchez was a game manager his first two years with the Jets, as the team boasted a great defense and solid running game.

2012

The Studs

• Aaron Rodgers
• Tom Brady
• Drew Brees
• Cam Newton
• Matthew Stafford
• Matt Ryan
• Peyton Manning
• Tony Romo

The Disappointments

• Eli Manning – Finished as the #14 QB. Coming off a career year in which he threw for 4,933 yards. Of course, after drafters finally show Eli some love, he settles in right at the #14 spot. Hilarious.
• Michael Vick – Missed six games due to injury. Shocking.

The Replacements:

• Robert GriffinIII – ADP #12 – Rookie year. #2 pick in the NFL Draft.
• Andrew Luck – ADP #16 – Rookie year. #1 pick in the NFL Draft.

2013

The Studs

• Drew Brees
• Peyton Manning
• Cam Newton
• Matt Ryan
• Matthew Stafford
• Andrew Luck

The Disappointments

• Aaron Rodgers – Missed seven games due to injury.
• Colin Kaepernick – Finished as the #11 QB. Supplanted Alex Smith as the starter in 2012.
• Robert GriffinIII – Missed three games due to injury. League figured out the read-option. As a result, the rushing touchdown total plummeted from seven to zero.
• Tom Brady – Finished as the #13 QB. Lost Danny Woodhead and Wes Welker to free agency. Aaron Hernandez was released. After three consecutive seasons with 30+ touchdowns, finished 2013 with 25.

The Replacements

• Andy Dalton – ADP #15 – Finished as the #3 QB. Third year in the league. Third year playing with A.J. Green. Increased every statistical passing category from his rookie season to year two.
• Phillip Rivers – ADP #23 – Norv Turner out. Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt in. Had a poor 2013, so was named the Comeback Player of the Year.
• Ben Roethlisberger – ADP #16 – Missed three games in 2012, one in 2011, four in 2010, one in 2009, one in 2007, one in 2006, four in 2005, and two in 2004. Now that is an injury history. Le’Veon Bell was drafted in the 2013 NFL Draft.
• Russell Wilson – ADP #11 – Second year in the league. Coming off a Super Bowl victory. Seahawks a run-oriented offense.

2014

The Studs

• Peyton Manning
• Aaron Rodgers
• Drew Brees
• Andrew Luck
• Tom Brady
• Matt Ryan

The Disappointments

• Matthew Stafford – First year for head coach Jim Caldwell. Calvin Johnson missed three games and was ineffective in many of the games that he did play. Finished as the #15 QB with only 22 touchdown passes. People keep thinking about his 2011 season in which he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. He attempted 663 passes that year and 727 the following year. In 2014, Stafford attempted 602 passes.
• Nick Foles – Missed eight games due to injury. Coming off a career year in which he threw 27 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions.
• Cam Newton – Missed two games due to injury. When he did play, injuries hampered his play. Rushing touchdowns have trended down every year since his rookie campaign: 14 in 2011, 8 in 2012, 6 in 2013, and 5 in 2014.
• Colin Kaepernick – A strange season for the 49ers. There was dissention in the locker room, which ultimately led to the 49ers moving on from Jim Harbaugh. The offense became very conservative and did not incorporate as much read-option, spread principles that had allowed Kaepernick to be successful.

The Replacements

• Russell Wilson – ADP #11 – Third year in the league. Stats from rookie season and year two are almost identical across the board. Coming off Super Bowl loss. Seahawks still a run-heavy team.
• Ben Roethlisberger – ADP #17 – Offense opened up as Roethlisberger and Haley got on the same page in 2013. He threw for a career high 584 times. The Roethlisberger-to-Antonio Brown connection really solidified in 2013.
• Eli Manning – ADP #22 – Terrible year in 2013, in which he threw only 18 touchdowns with 27 interceptions. Drafted God…I mean OBJ aka Odell Beckham Jr. in the 2014 NFL Draft.
• Ryan Tannehill – ADP #20 – Third year in the league. First year for offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. The Chip Kelly principles that he learned while working in Philadelphia were perfectly suited for Ryan Tannehill.

2015

The Studs

• Cam Newton
• Tom Brady
• Russell Wilson
• Drew Brees
• Aaron Rodgers

The Disappointments

• Andrew Luck – Missed nine games due to injury. Coming off a 40 touchdown campaign in 2014.
• Peyton Manning – Missed six games due to a combination of suckitude and injury. 40 years old. Lost Super Bowl the previous year.
• Ben Roethlisberger – Missed four games due to injury. Coming off career year.
• Matt Ryan – Lowest TD since rookie year. Finished as the #18 QB.

The Replacements

• Blake Bortles – ADP #22 QB. Second year. Game script called for tons of point chasing.
• Carson Palmer – ADP #16 QB. Missed 10 games in 2014. Age concerns as well (35 years old).
• Eli Manning – ADP #12 QB.
• Kirk Cousins – ADP #27 QB. Became the unquestioned starter over RG3.

DECIPHERING THE DATA

Below is a chart showing characteristics for the disappointments.

The injuries are the main reason, of course. All we can focus on are the quarterbacks that have an injury history. With that said, the way the league is protecting quarterbacks now, the number of injuries should decrease in future years. The two characteristics I want to focus on are 1) Coming off a career year and 2) Lost Super Bowl prior year. As all the disclaimers say on CNBC, past performance is not indicative of future performance. A fantasy football cliché is; don’t pay for last year’s stats. It’s human nature though. The Super Bowl is the last game of the year so that game will always be in the consciousness of drafters.

Below is a chart showing characteristics for the replacements.

With the sophistication of the game at the lower levels, quarterbacks are coming into the league more prepared than in the past. It’s not unheard of for them to make an immediate impact. Never discount a starting quarterback. A change in offensive coordinators is huge. The flip side to not paying for last year’s stats is looking for bounce-back candidates.

PREDICTION RESULTS FROM 2015

PREDICTIONS FOR 2016

2016 ADP

1. Cam Newton
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Andrew Luck
4. Russell Wilson
5. Drew Brees
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Tom Brady
8. Blake Bortles
9. Carson Palmer
10. Eli Manning

Since the average percentage for the past 10 years is 60% prediction rate, I will take out four and replace them with four currently outside of the top 10 ADP.

FOUR OUT

• Cam Newton (CAR)
  It’s tough fading Superman, but I have to try and pick four and Newton has the most checkmarks for reasons why quarterbacks disappoint. COMING OFF CAREER YEAR/LOWER TD TOTAL: 3,837 yards passing on 495 attempts with 35 touchdowns. Add in 636 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Insanity. He scored more than 40 points more than the No. 2 QB last year (Tom Brady). Everything broke right for Newton last year. I have a difficult time seeing that hyper-efficiency replicated. LOST SUPER BOWL PRIOR YEAR: I don’t know if this is really a thing, but it’s happened four other times in the past. I’m thinking the extra games played has something to do with this. RUNNING QB: Newton has only missed two games in his five-year career, which is amazing considering the amount of punishment he takes. At some point, the effects from all that pounding are going to rear their ugly little heads.

• Eli Manning (NYG)
  LOWER TD TOTAL: In his 12-year career, Manning has eclipsed the 30 touchdown mark in only three seasons. FINISH JUST OUTSIDE TOP 10: Other than his rookie year and 2013, Manning is usually in the vicinity of the top 10, but often comes up short.

• Blake Bortles (JAC)
  COMING OFF CAREER YEAR/LOWER TD TOTAL: Granted, he’s only been in the league for two years, but the jump from 11 to 35 touchdowns was astronomical. The stars aligned last year for fantasy production, primarily due to game script. With an improved defense and a defensive-minded head coach, the number of pass attempts should decrease. In addition, Bortles got away with a ton of mistakes last year. Those could easily translate into interceptions or incompletions.

• Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
  This pains me because I had Antonio Brown and Sammie Coates both ending up as top 10 wide receivers. Oops. INJURY HISTORY: Has played all 16 games only three times in his career. To be fair, he’s played 15 games in four seasons. He’s played 12 years, so do the math. INJURY TO SKILL POSITION PLAYER: Martavis Bryant is suspended for the whole year. The Steelers scored almost a touchdown more with Bryant in the lineup than without (28.6 vs 22.2 points per game). I thought Coates could slide in seamlessly into the Bryant role, but all indications in preseason don’t show that happening.

FOUR IN

• Tyrod Taylor (BUF)
  My man TyGod. At least I got him correct last year. BECAME STARTER PRIOR YEAR: This will be Year Two of the TyGod experience. He knows he’s the man now and he has that one year under his belt. Confidence should be sky high. RUSHING YARDAGE: Rushed for 568 yards and four touchdowns last year in 14 games. INJURY CONCERNS: Missed two games and left early in others. It’s all about health for Tyrod. Even though the Bills are conservative on offense, he showed the ability to be super-efficient in the passing game and potent on the ground. If he plays all 16 games, he has a good chance of ending as a top 10 quarterback.

• Kirk Cousins (WAS)
  BECAME STARTER PRIOR YEAR: This is Cousins’ team now and he has a bevy of weapons to help him out. You have DeSean Jackson taking the top off the defense, Pierre Garcon challenging defenses vertically and horizontally, Jamison Crowder breaking ankles, Jordan Reed abusing linebackers and safeties in the belly of the defense, and running back Chris Thompson jitterbugging out of the backfield. I do like that!!! 

• Marcus Mariota (TEN)
  I could see Mariota being this year’s Bortles. The defense isn’t that good so there could be plenty of point chasing. A definite concern would be the “exotic smashmouth” that the coaching staff wants to employ, but I think that will actually help Mariota and open more seams in the secondary. In addition, the Titans have more weapons in the passing game this year. SECOND YEAR: Should be more comfortable in the league and understand what it takes to succeed. He displayed his potential during his rookie year, but he also made a ton of mistakes. If he cleans those up, the sky is the limit. INJURY CONCERN: Mariota missed four games last season. He supposedly put on 10-15 pounds in order to hold up to the pounding. RUSHING: A prolific runner, Mariota rushed for only 252 yards and two touchdowns last year. For some reason, he did not run as much as expected last season. That aspect of his game should be on full display this year.

• Matthew Stafford (DET)
  NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jim Bob Cooter took over play calling duties halfway through the season last year. The glimpses of what we saw are very encouraging from a fantasy perspective. There was an emphasis on shorter routes and getting the ball out quicker. As a result, Stafford completed 67% of his passes, which was a career-best mark. The 32 touchdowns were the highest total since his insane 41 touchdowns back in 2011. In addition, Cooter wants to employ more uptempo and no-huddle. Efficiency plus increased volume. Yummy.

CONCLUSION

The one thing that writing this series has shown me is that you can’t go chalk. When’s the last time a person won the March Madness pool by picking all the favorites? What should’ve been the most predictable position, quarterback, yielded a 60% prediction rate from preseason ADP.

As many in the fantasy community say, trust the process, not the results. S@!t happens. You get lucky. You get unlucky. You are right on a player. You are wrong on a player. We are all in the fantasy football fortune telling business, whether we like it or not.

Don’t just follow the herd. Think. Formulate reasons on why you like a certain player or hate a certain player. Have a process. With experience, that process will become more refined and hopefully will be able skew the odds in your favor.

I thank you all for taking this journey with me. You can contact me on Twitter about anything. Good luck to all of you this season!

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Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.