Will Demaryius finish fourth in targets again this season?

Eric Moody lets fantasy owners know how the Broncos QB situation will impact key skill players this season.

Quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian, are battling each other every day to be named the starting quarterback of the Denver Broncos for the 2016 campaign. The two are splitting reps with the first team offense. Sanchez started the first preseason with Siemian set to the start the second. Fantasy owners have questions about how this competition will affect the fantasy outlook of other players. Can Demaryius Thomas be effective in a post-Manning world? What about Emmanuel Sanders? How will this impact the prospects of C.J. Anderson and the Broncos running game? This article will share three things you should know about the Broncos and this quarterback competition heading into Week 2 of the preseason.

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1. Broncos’ head coach Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme is quarterback proof

Kubiak knows quarterbacks and the ability to get the most out of whoever lines up under center. NFL offensive schemes continue to evolve and become more complex. Kubiak’s scheme does a great job of not putting the full command of the offense in the quarterback’s hands. He prefers the quarterback to focus on executing the play call rather than rationalizing if it will work or if it should be changed. Kubiak’s offenses have historically built its foundation on the running game and complemented with play-action and bootlegs. Tempo is also important in his scheme, with the mindset of not wasting much time at the line of scrimmage. All of the quarterbacks Kubiak has worked with throughout the years have demonstrated success. This list includes Steve Young, John Elway, Jake Plummer, Brian Griese, and Joe Flacco. During his time with the Broncos (1995 to 2005) as the offensive coordinator, Kubiak’s offense generated 66,501 total yards and 465 touchdowns, the most in the NFL during that time frame. Here is a snapshot of how quarterback Matt Schaub performed with Kubiak during his time as the Texans starting quarterback from 2007 to 2013.

Source: FantasyData

Schaub is a perfect example of the positive impact of Kubiak’s scheme on quarterbacks. He was selected 90th overall in the third round of the 2004 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons. Schaub was backup to Michael Vick. The Texans acquired Schaub via a trade with the Falcons in March of 2007. The statistical production speaks for itself. Here is excerpt on Sanchez from an article I wrote for RotoViz regarding five reasons you should target Demaryius Thomas.

Despite a subpar NFL career thus far, Sanchez had the physical profile and collegiate production to have success as an NFL quarterback, which is why he was selected as a first-round pick.

The purpose of leveraging our Box Scout Scout app is not to suggest Sanchez will suddenly become Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. It is to suggest that Sanchez may have untapped potential that Kubiak can bring to the surface as he becomes more acclimated to the scheme. Kubiak has been positively influencing quarterback play for nearly two decades. The two most recent examples have been Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and Texans quarterback Matt Schaub.

Sanchez or Siemen can be viable in this scheme in 2016. What effect would this have on Thomas and Sanders?

2. Thomas and Sanders’ target volume should continue

Kubiak has a history of relentlessly targeting the X wide receiver in his offenses. Thomas and Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson have a similar physical profile. Here is another excerpt from my article.

Both players are around 6 feet 3 inches, 225 pounds, and ran a 4.4 forty yard dash. Kubiak has also demonstrated success in the past with Broncos wide receiver Rod Smith. He averaged 140 targets, 86 receptions, 1,165 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns during the seasons Kubiak was the Broncos offensive coordinator where Smith started 14 or more games. He received 170 targets or more in 2000 and 2001. This despite the Broncos having the fourth most rushing attempts (516) in 2000 and the sixth most (481) in 2001.

The perception among many fantasy players is that a robust Broncos running attack cannot coexist with an explosive passing attack. The statistics above suggest otherwise. Johnson built his career on Kubiak’s passing attack. Here is a visual of how he performed during Kubiak’s tenure as head coach from 2006 to 2013:

Source: FantasyData

Thomas has a renewed focus heading into 2016 after managing numerous injuries, off the field distractions, a high number of dropped passes, and the physical breakdown of quarterback Peyton Manning. He is a WR1 you can draft in the third or fourth round depending on the size of your league.

Sanders has been very consistent in his fantasy production since arriving in Denver. He has averaged a target share of 23.5 percent in his first two seasons. I anticipate this type of target share to continue. Kubiak’s offense can support two wide receivers. Sanders is entering a contract year and is a great value at his current ADP in the middle rounds.

Source: FantasyData

3. Eight Running Backs have broken the 1,000 yard milestone in Kubiak’s offense

The beauty of Kubiak’s scheme is that a few of these eight running backs had multiple 1,000 yard seasons.

Terrell Davis was a sixth-round draft pick who played in this scheme from 1995 to 1998. The NFL was a different game back then, but he averaged 1,603 rushing yards a season during that four year time frame. Here is a visual of how Davis performed:

After the 1998 season, lower leg injuries derailed Davis’ NFL career. Olandis Gary was the next running back in Kubiak’s scheme to exceed 1,000 yards rushing in 1999. He rushed for 1,159 yards and scored seven touchdowns on 276 attempts. Mike Anderson, a sixth-round draft pick, kept the trend going in 2000 and 2005. Clinton Portis, a second round pick, filled in the gaps in 2002 and 2003. Reuben Droughns, a third-round draft pick, achieved the milestone in 2004 and 2005.

Kubiak continued the trend with the Texans in 2008 when third-round draft pick Steven Slaton rushed for over 1,000 yards. Arian Foster, who was an undrafted free agent, excelled with Kubiak from 2010 to 2012. Here is a visual of his production during that time frame:

Justin Forsett, a journeyman who was drafted in the seventh round, achieved the milestone when Kubiak was with the Baltimore Ravens as the offensive coordinator prior to accepting the head coaching job in Denver.

The opportunity will be there for C.J. Anderson to produce in Kubiak’s zone running scheme. The biggest risk to his success and for fantasy owners who draft him is his health. Anderson is classified as a medium injury risk (41 percent) according to Sports Injury Predictor.

Anderson disappointed fantasy owners last season as he was drafted in the early rounds. I get a sense he may not physically be able to handle a large workload. Broncos rookie Devontae Booker will play a role in 2016 and will form a running back by committee. He has an opportunity to be a season changer for fantasy owners if Anderson misses time.

Conclusion

Kubiak’s offenses have demonstrated success throughout his NFL career. The outlooks for Thomas, Sanders, Anderson, and other fantasy relevant players are not going to change by whoever the coaching staff names as the starting quarterback. You could make an argument that many of the Broncos are undervalued in fantasy.

Does this change your perspective of Thomas, Sanders, or Anderson heading into fantasy drafts? Feel free to comment below or better yet reach out to me on Twitter. You can find me @EricNMoody.

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