LeSean McCoy has a solid floor, but does he provide week-winning upside at this stage of his career?
It’s becoming more difficult these days to find a running back who’s a true feature back – someone who can play on any down, catch passes and score touchdowns.
The Buffalo Bills have such a player in LeSean McCoy.
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However, his prospective fantasy owners may want to ask how much of a good thing that is.
There’s no denying his talent. When he was healthy last season, his first in Buffalo, he flashed his Pro Bowl form.
When the Bills returned from their bye in Week 9, McCoy enjoyed a six-game stretch in which he averaged 22.5 touches, 120 total yards and five targets a game. His rushing average in that stretch was 4.9 yards per carry. In four of those games, his snap count was above 80 percent. Overall, his touches per game ranked seventh in the league.
But he wasn’t healthy for significant portions of the season. A career of heavy workloads showed signs last season of taking its toll.
McCoy developed a hamstring issue during the preseason and unwisely tried to play through it. In the first three games, he averaged only 3.4 yards a carry before he was shut down for the next two games. Even during his hot streak he wasn’t 100 percent, as he suffered a shoulder strain in the first game after the bye. On Dec. 20, a sprained MCL ended his season two games early.
McCoy turned 28 in July. He now has 2,043 touches in his career, including playoffs. Data shows a productivity cliff at the 1,800-carry mark as heavily abused bodies begin to break down.
So what’s easier to believe? That his 2015 was an anomaly, or that durability is an increasing concern going forward?
Moreover, McCoy is involved in a unique situation this year, as his primary backup, Karlos Williams – who scored nine total touchdowns to McCoy’s five last season – is suspended for the first four games of 2016. Rookie Jonathan Williams, who some thought would supplant Karlos, is in trouble after getting arrested on DWI charges.
The Bills are concerned enough about backfield depth and not putting too much on McCoy’s shoulders that they signed veteran Reggie Bush. That’s good news and bad news for McCoy, as it may put a cap on his touches but ease wear and tear early in the season.
Bush, one of the top receiving backs of the past decade, could especially hurt McCoy’s PPR value. While he’s not a receiving liability, McCoy doesn’t get a bump either; he was 11th in standard RB scoring per game last year, and 12th in PPR.
Another strike against McCoy is the Bills’ schedule. Three of those first four games are against the Jets, Cardinals and Patriots, all top-10 run defenses last year. That may hinder the value McCoy would have as a sell candidate before Karlos Williams returns. The rest of the season doesn’t get much easier, as it includes the Bengals and Seahawks, plus the up-and-coming Raiders and Jaguars.
Some fantasy owners scoff at risk, and I would, too – if a player had enough game-winning upside to justify it. McCoy doesn’t. In standard fantasy scoring, he didn’t break 20 points once last year. Jeremy Langford did it twice. So did Matt Jones.
In fantasy redrafts, McCoy has RB1 talent and a role that gives him a high floor, but I wouldn’t be comfortable with him at the top of my depth chart. As of July 31, his Average Draft Position is 12th among running backs, in the early third round of a 12-team redraft. That’s about right. There are enough week-winning studs with lower risk (counting all positions) that I’d want two of them on my roster before giving Shady a shot.
Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
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