The best is likely yet to come for Odell Beckham Jr.

Eric Moody analyzes wide receiver targets from 2015 to help owners prepare for 2016 fantasy drafts.

How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many fantasy owners will use this information to make draft decisions, start/sit decisions, determine which players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. Let’s take a different perspective in evaluating the wide receiver target totals from the 2015 season. The first article in this series focused on wide receivers who had 170 targets or more. This article will focus on wide receivers who were targeted between 140 to 170 times.

This group of wide receivers represents the second tier as it relates to targets. Odell Beckham and Allen Robinson are the statistical phenoms of this tier. It makes you wonder what type of production they could generate with a higher target share. Landry had 10 or more targets in 11 games in 2015. Beckham, Robinson, and Fitzgerald had 10 or more targets in seven games last season. Michael Crabtree greatly outperformed his ADP (average draft position). He had a career renaissance last season. Crabtree set a career high in targets (146), had the second most receiving yards in his career (922), and matched his career high in touchdowns (9). He finished the season with more targets than rookie Amari Cooper (132). Mike Evans was a frustrating wide receiver to own in 2015. He had the lowest fantasy points per target (0.92) in this tier. Evans had the highest target share among this group of wide receivers, but the lowest catch rate. Evans’ and Landry’s low touchdown rate (0.02) capped their fantasy upside.

How ironic is it that Landry led this tier of wide receivers in red zone targets, but only scored four touchdowns. Crabtree made the most of his opportunities in the red zone by scoring nine touchdowns in 2015. Allen Robinson (14) and Odell Beckham (13) were the only receivers in this tier to score double-digit touchdowns. The RotoViz Freak score is a simple way to describe the mix of size and speed that a wide receiver has. The result will be a scaled number (0-100) that has a rough fitting relationship with a prospect’s potential to score touchdowns in the NFL. Beckham (54) and Robinson (57) have relatively low Freak scores, but they are still finding ways to score touchdowns in bunches on the NFL level. Meanwhile, a wide receiver like Evans has a Freak score of 76 yet only scored three touchdowns in 2015. Beckham has scored 10 or more touchdowns in back to back seasons.

Snap %: Percentage of offensive and defensive snaps played (only includes games where player played)

Target %: Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt

Source: FantasyData

Landry’s (0.95) and Evans’ (0.92) fantasy points per target are a great example of how a lack of touchdowns limit a wide receiver’s fantasy upside. Landry should continue to play a high percentage of snaps, but the Dolphins’ receiving core could reduce his target share. Landry, DeVante Parker, Leonte Carroo, and Jordan Cameron will all be vying for targets in Dolphins head coach Adam Gase’s offensive scheme. Beckham and Robinson will continue to play a high number of snaps which will result in sufficient target volume. Evans is due for some positive regression after a preseason hamstring injury limited his snaps for the first half of the season. Crabtree has averaged 742.5 offensive snaps over the last two seasons. He will be on the field as long as his health permits after signing a four-year, $34 million contract with more than $16.5 million guaranteed late last season. Crabtree has averaged 116.3 targets over the previous three seasons he has played 14 or more games. Crabtree may see his target share decrease this season due to the rising talent Cooper. It will be challenging to match his 146 targets from 2015.

Sports Injury Predictor is an excellent site that was built to predict which NFL players are likely to get injured in a season using an algorithm. The site has Beckham listed as a high risk. Robinson and Evans are listed as medium risks. Crabtree, Fitzgerald, and Landry are listed as low risks. Risk and reward are two elements that are critical when building your fantasy football team.

Projection Summary Results via the RotoViz WR Similarity Score App in PPR formats

The RotoViz WR Similarity app is a tremendous resource that RotoViz provides which enables you to run projections and view the results of what similar players did after they had a season that was comparable to the subject player. Reviewing the potential range of outcomes is very important when evaluating wide receivers. The chart above displays the potential point outcomes on a weekly basis. The chart below will display an average of comparable seasons from the WR Similarity app.

Average of Comparable Seasons Summary Results via the RotoViz WR Similarity Score App

Target volume was always Landry’s greatest asset. That volume may not be there in 2016 and he is a candidate to be overvalued. Another concern is that a high percentage of his targets travel less than 15 yards.

Landry lacks elite explosiveness and play speed. He is a possession receiver with very good hands who works the short to intermediate areas of the field. Landry’s role and lack of success in the red zone limits his upside. I do not recommend buying shares of Landry at his current ADP.

Odell Beckham is my candidate to dethrone Antonio Brown as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver this season. He and the Giants’ offense got off to a slow start in 2015. Nearly 60 percent of his targets came from Week 8 on. Beckham generated 2.71 fantasy points per reception during that time frame. Quarterback Eli Manning had the fourth most pass attempts (618) and fifth most passing touchdowns (35) last season. Beckham has the potential to top 200 targets in 2016. I recommend buying shares of Beckham at his current ADP and am even very comfortable drafting him first overall.

Robinson led this tier of receivers in yards per target (9.3) and touchdowns (14), but he had the second lowest catch rate (53 percent). The Jaguars offense may regress this season after scoring the third most passing touchdowns (35) last season. The Jaguars made numerous upgrades in the offseason to improve a defense that gave up 2.05 points per drive and allowed 31 percent of them to make it to the red zone. They added Malik Jackson, Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey, Prince Amukamara, and Tashaun Gipson. 2015 first round pick Dante Fowler is also set to return to assist the pass rush. The offseason acquisition of Chris Ivory in free agency suggests the Jaguars want to run the football. Robinson is the still the Jaguars No. 1 wide receiver, and he will see a similar number of overall targets while continuing to be targeted heavily downfield. His number of touchdowns is likely to regress, but Robinson will still finish the 2016 season as a solid WR1. I recommend buying shares of Robinson at his current ADP.

Mike Evans’ ADP is ridiculously high considering he disappointed fantasy owners last season. The Buccaneers plan on opening up the offense for Jameis Winston in his second season as a professional after a successful rookie season. The team plays in the high scoring NFC South. The Panthers (ranked first) and Saints (ranked eight) were both in the top 10 in offensive points scored in 2015. The Falcons had the eighth most (5,988) offensive yards in the NFL last season. The Buccaneers are going to have to leverage their passing attack to win games. Evans can bounce back in 2016 and 150 targets is attainable, but how effective can he be? Evans is the epitome of a risk/reward player at his second round ADP. I am not buying Evans at his current ADP. I would feel much more comfortable drafting him in the third round.

Crabtree’s ADP and top 20 finish are what made him an excellent pickup last season. He is the type of wide receiver that can provide fantasy owners a safe floor, but he lacks the explosive week-winning upside. All the data suggests Crabtree may see anywhere from 20 to 30 targets taken away. I am not buying him at his current ADP. There are other wide receivers that have more upside where Crabtree is being drafted that I would prefer to invest in.

Fitzgerald rewarded fantasy owners who drafted him last season. The Cardinals’ offense does not feature any one wide receiver. John Brown (101) and Michael Floyd (89) also had a high number of targets.

When you look at the Cardinals wide receiver production at 60,000 feet things begin to look less hazy. Floyd is in a contract year and is essentially auditioning for the Cardinals No. 1 wide receiver position. Fitzgerald is entering his age-33 season and the last two years of his contract are voidable. Floyd and Brown also run all of the vertical routes in Bruce Arians’ aggressive passing attack while Fitzgerald champions the short to intermediate routes from the slot.

The target volume should be fairly consistent among all three Cardinals wide receivers. This an offense you want a piece of on your fantasy team. The Cardinals scored 2.37 points per drive, making it to the red zone on nearly 40 percent of their total drives, and once in the red zone scored a touchdown on nearly 70 percent of them. The best approach to take is to draft whichever Cardinals wide receiver is left out of Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd. It also is a good idea to draft J.J. Nelson in different leagues if any of the Cardinals wide receivers mentioned above were to miss games due to an injury.

Conclusion

The second target tier (Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Michael Crabtree, and Larry Fitzgerald) of wide receivers I analyzed in this series helped a number of fantasy owners this past season. The biggest takeaways from this analysis is that I sense we have not seen the best statistical season from Odell Beckham and that we are not receiving any kind of discount on Mike Evans. The purpose of this article was to dive deeper into the statistics in order to provide a thorough analysis and a different perspective. The third article in this series will present the same methodology for the third target tier (wide receivers who were targeted between 130 to 140 times) that includes Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, Eric Decker, and Amari Cooper.

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