What should fantasy owners make of Todd Gurley’s tough start?
R.C. Fischer discusses Five Fantasy Football Things We Learned From Week 2.
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After each week of preseason games, I’ll be discussing things that stood out to me — things I believe the football media is shaping the wrong way or has totally overlooked. Here’s my take after watching all the Week 2 contests…
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5) Amari Cooper…trouble ahead — in a few weeks, and for a few years?
San Diego cornerback Jason Verrett has become a shutdown corner. He locked down Allen Robinson in Week 2, and pretty well squashed Jeremy Maclin Week 1 – and Verrett was showing shutdown skills last season. Verrett has arrived. Which means the AFC West now features Jason Verrett, Marcus Peters, and Aqib Talib…three of the best corners in the NFL, all in one division – and Amari Cooper has them on the schedule six times this year (five for regular fantasy, including FF-playoffs).
Cooper will face each of these foes over the next seven weeks – Week 5 (SD), Week 6 (KC), Week 9 (DEN). You may consider cashing out ‘high’ ahead of that, in a redraft format. You may want to consider targeting Michael Crabtree as a way to play that stretch. Having a WR1 (Cooper) who is a shaky start for nearly 50% of the middle of the fantasy season is going to be frustrating.
Additional note – Amari and Derek Carr are going to be saddled with this schedule nuisance…for what? A couple of years ahead? I love Cooper, but I wish he didn’t have this cloud hanging over his head in a few weeks, or for the next few years in Dynasty.
4) Devonta Freeman…PPR sit?
I have never been a Freeman fan, at all, but I thought the only redeeming fantasy value he had was catching lots of dump-off passes. Week 2 marks the second time this season where Tevin Coleman has seen more targets than Freeman in a game. In Week 1, 6-to-4 for targets in favor of Coleman. In Week 2, Freeman was iced…2-to-0 for Coleman. Freeman has just four catches for 20 yards this season.
I don’t care if Freeman is taking more carries, because he’s not a workhorse runner. Freeman has rushed for just two TDs in his last 11 games. I don’t want a +/- 200-pound running back who is not the main RB in the passing game. Freeman’s fantasy value is plummeting fast.
3) Fear the New York Giants defense?
The new-look Giants defense has given up only one TD pass this season, and they’ve held opposing teams to 3.3 yards per carry – shutting down Ezekiel Elliott and Mark Ingram.
Matt Jones, Adrian Peterson (or not), and Eddie Lacy ahead in the run game the next three weeks – running backs that have made fantasy owners uneasy as it is this season. On the pass-game side — suddenly embattled Kirk Cousins and then new-to-town Sam Bradford without AP over the next two weeks.
Is it time to downgrade offensive weapons against the Giants?
Is it time to consider them as an actual DST play?
2) Believe in Sam Bradford…
Consider Bradford’s career – he began with ‘the destroyer of quarterbacks’ (and NFL franchises) Jeff Fisher. So, are we shocked he flopped with the Rams for years? Last season, Bradford played for the circus of disappointment that was Chip Kelly’s Eagles…and Kelly was dismissed because of that circus.
Now, Bradford plays with the best running game and with the best receiving weapons he’s ever had. He was making Stefon Diggs his personal Antonio Brown by the first half of Sunday Night Football. You may not believe strongly in Bradford for fantasy, but at least believe that the Vikings’ offense will not be a rollover anymore, and Diggs may go to WR1-land…Diggs is that good, and Bradford is that competent.
1) Todd Gurley, RB3/bench player extraordinaire…
What’s going to change the narrative here? The Rams won a game in Week 2, so Jeff Fisher will probably feel he is ‘on the right track.’ Nothing is going to change soon, not at head coach or quarterback – so why wouldn’t you trust what Gurley’s awful output is screaming at you…
Gurley has just one 100+ yard rushing game in his last 11 games (so does Fozzy Whittaker). He’s caught a measly 13 passes over those last 11 games…so enjoy that PPR cornucopia. Only 3.7 yards per carry the last 11 games…2.7 yards per carry this season, after two weeks.
What’s going to change next week? On the road at a very good run defense with Tampa Bay, followed by on the road against a quality Arizona group, and then home to face Buffalo…and the only thing the Bills do decently is play the run (and Marcell Dareus will be back).
Gurley could be a ‘sit’ until further notice…or a boat anchor in your starting lineup. Every team is going to stack the box while Case Keenum is the QB. You’re going to keep starting Gurley waiting for the turn, and it could be devastating to your fantasy efforts. Ask owners of C.J. Anderson, Melvin Gordon, and Eddie Lacy how the ‘play your studs’ theory worked out last year, as they destroyed many a fantasy seasons with 5-to-8+ weeks of chasing butterflies.
