Marcus Mariota and the Titans’ offense have been abysmal

Welcome to another edition of “Analyzing Vegas Odds”. Last week was certainly an interesting week, with some premier offenses getting shut down, including the Steelers which I mentioned in this article last week. Jim Schwartz knows how to run a defense, and this is something I would consider moving forward. As usual, our top game of the week features the New Orleans Saints and their continuously disappearing defense. With all that being said, let’s move on to the picks!

Import your team for free to get waiver wire advice

New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers – Total: 53.5; Spread: -4.5 San Diego

This is the highest total on the day, and quite frankly, it will be surprising to me if the Saints are not in the game with the highest total every week this year. Their defense might, in fact be the worst of all time. The Saints also don’t play the best on the road, but something tells me that things will work out for them this week in San Diego.

I highlighted a few weeks back that Drew Brees splits tend to favor him at home, and even though it has only been three weeks, his fantasy production has been better at home. I don’t mind him as a tournament play. Brandin Cooks, as always, makes for a nice tournament play with his upside, but I also don’t love him here. If Willie Snead is forced to miss time again, I do like Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener a lot. I think Fleener is in play either way, as things finally seem to be settling in for him. I think my favorite play here is probably Mark Ingram. The Saints finally forced him into the offense this past week, and he didn’t have a bad game at all. San Diego still has a very bad run defense, and I think Ingram may fly under the radar. San Diego is especially poor with pass catching backs, which Ingram can be, as Travaris Cadet is used a little differently out of the backfield.

Moving over to the San Diego side of things, I am going to take a hard pass on Philip Rivers. I think the opportunity is there for him to have a nice game, but we haven’t seen quarterbacks have big games against New Orleans thus far this year. Derek Carr had a good game, but then both Eli Manning and Matt Ryan came up short for one reason or another. I definitely think this could take place again here. Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are affordable options in tournaments that I wouldn’t mind using. If Antonio Gates is out again with injury, Hunter Henry is basically a plug and play for me in cash games at minimum price. The main portion of this offense I want is Melvin Gordon. We’ve seen multiple running backs have their way with New Orleans [4 in 3 games as a matter of fact], and Gordon might be the best pure back they’ve faced thus far. He will get touches and I would set his floor at 80 yards, a touchdown and 2-3 catches for 15-20 yards. Not a bad fantasy day at all. His ceiling? It’ll win you a tournament.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons – Total: 50; Spread: -3.5 Carolina

Next up for the week, we have a high scoring game between two division rivals, with one coming off a short week. I typically don’t read a ton into this, because it is only one day, and this game being in Atlanta seals the deal for me. I think it will be close and high scoring.

Immediately, Cam Newton jumps off the page to me as someone who should very well be a good play this week. That is, until I looked at his history on the road in Atlanta. In his time as a starting quarterback, he’s had one good fantasy game, and it wasn’t an amazing outing. I will take this very seriously, and he’s going to be a tournament play only for me. I think this could be a better week to run Cameron Artis-Payne out against, as the Falcons can give up some yards. I still don’t love him, but I get it if Jonathan Stewart is out. Greg Olsen is always in play, and Kelvin Benjamin should have no issue topping his performance from last week. I think they will work hard to get him involved in the offense this week.

The Falcons sure did look good on Monday night, but make no mistake about it, this Panthers defense is a much different defense than the Saints. I think that many people might look to Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman after what they did, but I am not into it. I definitely think that this will be a week where Matt Ryan will have to throw a little bit more, so he’s there as a decent tournament play. Julio Jones should see more attention his way and I think, much like Kelvin Benjamin, there will be an effort to get him involved. Jacob Tamme is also in play here, as he continues to be a favorite of Matt Ryan. If Mohamed Sanu is unable to play, that leaves the door open for Aldrick Robinson or Taylor Gabriel to be a punt tournament option.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans – Total: 40.5; Spread: – 6.5 Houston

This is one of the lowest totals we are likely to see on the year, and quite frankly, I think it could be lower than that and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston win by more. This is a Titans team that just isn’t clicking, and I don’t see it happening this week.

So where do we start with the Titans? Well, in my opinion, it starts and ends with one player: DeMarco Murray. We can all pretend that Derrick Henry is going to cut into his reps, and perhaps, in time, he will. The difference here is that Derrick Henry is a running back, and DeMarco Murray is a playmaker. That isn’t a slight with Henry; he could end up being the next great running back strictly from a running perspective. Houston has been air tight against the pass this year, though it did come against Jay Cutler, Alex Smith and Jacoby Brissett, none of which are top-tier quarterbacks, but neither is Mariota. The receiving unit hasn’t shown enough to be trusted, and I think Delanie Walker is a low-end tournament play this week.

To be honest, I don’t find Brock Osweiler impressive. I think he can function as a game manager, but I am not seeing it from a fantasy perspective. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins are fine plays in tournaments this week, due to the fact that I do think that the Texans defense will give Osweiler a lot of pressure. Ryan Griffin has seen a high amount of targets, and I think he makes a really nice tournament play if Braxton Miller is out again. Stephen Anderson was supposed to get more run, but he himself came out with a hamstring injury. Lamar Miller is another top overall play, as he is heavily involved in the offense, and should see ample opportunity to score this week. Last but not least, the Texans defense is my top overall defense this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Total: 47.5; Spread: -5.5 Pittsburgh

This will be the final game of the main slate this Sunday, and I think Vegas is shooting a bit low. This is going to be a Steelers team coming off a terrible loss, their worst in almost 20 years. The Chiefs dominated in victory over the Jets, but it was mostly defensive, so the offense still has a lot to prove. I think this will be an exciting game, chock full of fantasy options.

Alex Smith is always in the back of my mind as a tournament play because he is always low owned and will scramble and end up with more rushing touchdowns than you would think by years end. I love him in a game I think that will be both close and high scoring. The running back situation could become even more convoluted this week as Jamaal Charles could possibly return. If I am taking one in tournaments, it will definitely be Spencer Ware. Travis Kelce had his first big game of 2016 last week, and I look for him to build on that success this week. Jeremy Maclin really sucked it up last week, so I think this is a nice bounce back spot, despite the fact I think he will still carry high ownership. Chris Conley is a nice deep tournament option, as he has been seeing a high amount of targets this year too.

I’m sure the vast majority of people who played the Steelers last week are not wanting to read about how good I think they will be this week. This week marks the return of Le’Veon Bell, who I think will be a major factor right off the bat. I think Ben Roethlisberger is going to put up big numbers, and I think he will find Antonio Brown more than once for a touchdown, making them my top combo in both cash games and tournaments. Outside of that, I really can’t say that I like anyone else. Sammie Coates is continuing to improve, so I guess he could be considered a tournament play. Markus Wheaton looked awful last week, and Eli Rogers is currently in a boot. I’d stick to the main three this week.

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Nicholas Volinchak is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicholas, follow him @researchandwin. You can find more of Nicholas’ football work at Research Fantasy.