Derrick Henry was very impressive in his first NFL preseason

Eric Moody provides the numbers behind the preseason to help fantasy football owners prepare for Week 1.

Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another.

It is a fine line in analyzing statistics from the NFL preseason. Many of the performances do not always translate into fantasy production during the regular season. I prefer to use it to provide context on narratives and predictions that were formed leading up to the regular season. My intent is to discuss 10 statistical takeaways I had from diving into the preseason numbers.

The fantasy football season will always be a rollercoaster filled with numerous twists and turns. The fun officially starts on September 8th as the NFL season kicks off with the Denver Broncos versus the Carolina Panthers. The goal of this weekly column is to share stats, provide clarity, and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team.

With that in mind, it’s time to dive into the statistical analysis of certain players from the 2016 preseason games.

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1. Derrick Henry produced 1.13 fantasy points per touch.

Henry had a very productive preseason playing 81 offensive snaps. He had a rushing attempt on 42 percent of them. Henry averaged 6.0 yards per carry and scored three rushing touchdowns. I have been high on Henry since he was selected by the Titans in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft. DeMarco Murray, who was acquired by the Titans this past offseason, has also performed well in the preseason and has received praise from the team’s coaching staff in the media. I anticipate this “exotic smash mouth” (echoing the words of head coach Mike Mularkey) running back by committee will start with Murray being given 60 percent of the touches to Henry’s 40 percent. Henry is a threat to Murray’s workload, and I could envision a scenario by the second half of the season where the two roles are reversed. Given the spike in Henry’s average draft position (ADP) through August many in the fantasy football community share that sentiment. Here is a visual of his preseason production:

Source: FantasyData

2. Dak Prescott produced 0.97 fantasy points per touch.

The fragility of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo continues to be a thorn in the side of the Cowboys’ organization. He suffered a broken bone in his back and could miss anywhere from six to 10 weeks. Many questioned if the organization had a viable backup in case this scenario reared its ugly head. Prescott answered the bell and many fantasy owners are excited about the opportunity he has. I wrote an article that details the ripple effect that Romo’s injury has on the Cowboys’ offense. Prescott has the potential to be a QB2 with upside with the Cowboys. The team has him surrounded with an excellent offensive line, an elite running back, and one of the top wide receivers in the game. The coaching staff will add more to his plate each and every week. It will be critical to see how Prescott adapts especially when opposing defensive coordinators have game film to break down. It may take anywhere from three to four weeks for teams to put together a scouting report for him. I have seen Prescott’s average draft position fluctuate all over the place in local and expert fantasy football leagues. I recommend drafting him as a QB2 or QB3 in Superflex or 2QB formats. He is not a quarterback I would reach for.

3. Vance McDonald (1.54), Jared Cook (1.30), and Virgil Green (1.57) produced similar fantasy points per target.

It continues to amaze me how a big preseason game can influence a player’s ADP. This happened with McDonald, but Cook and Green continue to fly under the radar. Tight end is a position many fantasy owners have various strategies on how to address each season. I wrote an article outlining various strategies on how to attack the position in 2016 fantasy drafts. There is a great deal of value in the middle to late rounds of drafts. The players outlined above are excellent targets late in fantasy drafts. McDonald has the potential to lead the 49ers in targets under new head coach Chip Kelly. Could Cook be the third receiving option that the Packers are looking for? He has always been an athletic marvel, but this is the most explosive offense he has ever been attached to. Green is another player criminally underused by the Broncos. He has been frustratingly used as a blocking tight end up to this point of his NFL career. Green has very good ball skills, play speed, and overall athleticism. He has the fantasy profile of a TE2 with upside in Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak’s tight end-friendly offensive scheme. These tight ends are all excellent targets if you prefer to take the committee approach with your fantasy football team.

4. The Eagles D/ST scored 72 fantasy points.

The Eagles are one of my favorite defensive units to bounce back in 2016. This unit has a great deal of talent at the defensive line, linebacker, cornerback, and safety positions. I am ecstatic about the arrival of new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz who led the Bills D/ST to a top three finish back in 2014. If you are looking for a defensive unit to stream in Week 1 I recommend prioritizing the Eagles.

5. Mike Evans was targeted on 16 percent of his 77 offensive snaps.

Evans had a strong preseason and most importantly was healthy. This time last year he was dealing with a hamstring injury that cut his preseason short and ultimately impacted his 2015 season. Evans had a great offseason and appears to be in better shape heading into 2016. The Buccaneers offense plans on running more no huddle this season as head coach Dirk Koetter slowly adds more offensive responsibilities to quarterback Jameis Winston’s plate. A healthy Vincent Jackson will also have a positive effect on Evans in 2016. He has the potential in this offensive scheme to finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver.

6. Spencer Ware touched the football or was targeted on 30 percent of his 107 offensive snaps.

Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is recovering from a torn ACL at the age of 29. The Chiefs front office signed Ware to a contract extension. All signs have pointed to him being the No. 2 running back and not Charcandrick West. Ware has been a player I have aggressively targeted in all of my fantasy football leagues. Even before the recent news that Charles needs more time to be field ready. What will life without him look like for the Chiefs? We will find out in Week 1 as the Chiefs face off against the Chargers. Ware becomes a high-end RB1 in that matchup. I would find ways to put him in your lineups as opposed to finding reasons not to. How long will Charles be out until he is field ready? Hope is not a winning fantasy football strategy. Charles is still a medium injury risk (32 percent) according to Sports Injury Predictor. I recommend holding onto Ware all season. This backfield could turn into a running back by committee with Charles in the receiving back role.

7. Kenny Stills was targeted 13 percent of his 83 offensive snaps.

DeVante Parker’s well-documented struggles to stay healthy continue. He has even been called out publicly by new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase. Parker’s ADP has always been too high for me. I do not own him on any of my fantasy teams heading into the 2016 season. Gase, courtesy of the Miami Herald, revealed that Parker has dealt with injuries to both of his hamstrings this summer. Fantasy owners who invested in him are likely to keep him stashed, but that does not change Parker’s high injury risk (74 percent) according to Sports Injury Predictor. Stills is the Dolphins wide receiver that stands to benefit and is essentially free.

8. Demaryius Thomas produced 0.76 fantasy points per opportunity according to Pro Football Focus.

I have been championing Thomas all summer. He is a wide receiver I have been aggressively targeting on many of my fantasy teams. Thomas is a WR1 that can be drafted at the price of a WR3 or WR4. His usage was very encouraging and Thomas had one of the highest fantasy points per opportunity among wide receivers this preseason. It is a metric courtesy of Pro Football Focus that quantifies how effective a player is with his opportunity. The article mentioned above addresses many of the objections fantasy owners would have in regards to drafting Thomas.

9. Jameis Winston produced 0.66 fantasy points per drop back according to Pro Football Focus.

Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter has a number of offensive principles that pair up well with fantasy football. He wants to create explosive plays, convert third downs, and limit turnovers. Koetter did a tremendous job of bringing Winston along slowly last year. He was adamant about not repeating the mistakes made under his watch with former Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Winston is a great quarterback to roster in order to execute a streaming strategy. I wrote an article on how to address the quarterback position in fantasy drafts which you can read. Winston faces a number of tough pass defenses during the first five weeks of the 2016 season. It would be perfect to pair him with another quarterback like Derek Carr who is in the opposite situation early in the season. Winston has the potential to finish as a QB1 this season.

10. Alfred Morris produced 0.85 fantasy points per touch on 78 offensive snaps. 

Morris can be very effective in the right offensive scheme. He was not a good fit for Redskins head coach Jay Gruden’s scheme in 2015. I was thrilled once he was signed by the Dallas Cowboys, but that excitement was taken away after the team selected Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 NFL Draft. The Cowboys power running attack is perfect for Morris and his preseason production reflects that. He will be leaned upon in the scenario that Elliott misses games this season. Morris is one of my favorite players to target late in fantasy drafts. He could be a season-changer if given the opportunity in the Cowboys’ offense.

Conclusion

The majority of fantasy football drafts have been completed. We will have clarity on many players starting this Sunday. Will Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham start the season off with a statistical bang? Can Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, or Thomas Rawls produce for fantasy owners? Will Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener break out with their new teams? If you missed my previous articles covering running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks please click on the links. By The Numbers will be a weekly column at FantasyPros every week of the regular season. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter. You can find me @EricNMoody and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Until next time!

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