Will Carlos Hyde build off his strong Week 3 performance?
Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another.
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Ezekiel Elliott led all running backs in carries (30). Seven other running backs had 20 or more carries. Elliott also led all running backs in rushing yards with 140. Six other running backs produced 100 or more rushing yards. Seven running backs scored two touchdowns. DeMarco Murray averaged 7.1 yards per carry. Christine Michael averaged 4.0 yards after contact. Charles Sims and Theo Riddick led all running backs in targets with eight.
Two notable running backs suffered injuries in Week 3. Jeremy Langford suffered an ankle injury and is expected to miss four to six weeks according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Shane Vereen tore his triceps and is out for the season.
I am writing this article while watching Monday Night Football between the Saints and Falcons. Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman both have 20 plus points in standard formats.
The fantasy football season continues to be a rollercoaster filled with numerous twists and turns. The goal of this weekly column is to share stats with you to provide you context, clarity, and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team. With that in mind, it’s time to dive into Week 3.
Top 15 Fantasy Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Team | Att | Yds | Yds/Att | TD | Targets | Rec | Yds | TD | Fum | Lost | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | Tevin Coleman | ATL | 12 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26.9 |
| 2 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | 14 | 152 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26.7 |
| 3 | Carlos Hyde | SF | 21 | 103 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24.5 |
| 4 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | 17 | 110 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23.6 |
| 5 | David Johnson | ARI | 19 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 6 | Christine Michael | SEA | 20 | 106 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 7 | LeGarrette Blount | NE | 24 | 105 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.5 |
| 8 | Jeremy Hill | CIN | 17 | 97 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.7 |
| 9 | DeMarco Murray | TEN | 16 | 114 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.5 |
| 10 | Todd Gurley | LA | 27 | 85 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Darren Sproles | PHI | 2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 128 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 12 | Mark Ingram | NO | 15 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 13 | Charles Sims | TB | 13 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 14 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 30 | 140 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 15 | Frank Gore | IND | 21 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14.3 |
Source: FantasyData
I would like to share some observations regarding the statistics above. If you did not buy into Coleman being an RB2 the first two weeks your perspective has likely changed after his impressive Monday Night Football performance. Both he and Freeman should be started every week.
Carlos Hyde was the only bright spot of the 49ers offense. He produced 1.11 fantasy points per touch and remains a solid RB2. LeSean McCoy also had a very productive game producing 1.18 fantasy points per touch against the formidable Cardinals defense. He remains a low-end RB1 in the Bills run-heavy scheme. Christine Michael produced like an RB1 when given a huge workload. He averaged 4.0 yards after contact. Michael is the better running back and it would be foolish if the Seahawks do not give him a high percentage of the touches. Gurley was inefficient overall, but two rushing touchdowns trumps all.
LeSean McCoy also had a very productive game producing 1.18 fantasy points per touch against the formidable Cardinals defense. He remains a low-end RB1 in the Bills run-heavy scheme. Christine Michael produced like an RB1 when given a huge workload. He averaged 4.0 yards after contact. Michael is the better running back and it would be foolish if the Seahawks do not give him a high percentage of the touches. Gurley was inefficient overall, but two rushing touchdowns trumps all.
Christine Michael produced like an RB1 when given a huge workload. He averaged 4.0 yards after contact. Michael is the better running back and it would be foolish if the Seahawks do not give him a high percentage of the touches. Gurley was inefficient overall, but two rushing touchdowns trumps all.
David Johnson continues to perform as advertised leading up to the 2016 season. He has been given a large workload and continues to produce 1 fantasy point per touch through three games.
Blount is currently a top five fantasy running back. He should still be actively involved once Patriots quarterback Tom Brady returns from his suspension.
Hill was one of my favorite targets in fantasy drafts heading into the season. He faced a number of tough run defenses to start the season. Things lighten up considerably for Hill after Week 4.
The Titans have not exactly been executing an “Exotic Smash Mouth” rushing attack, but Murray continues to perform like a solid RB2. He has produced 0.95 fantasy points per touch through Week 3.
Gurley is averaging 2.9 yards per carry through three games. He scored two touchdowns, but is not out of the woodshed yet in a terrible Rams offense. This a great time to sell high.
Sproles continues to be a gadget player who could go boom on any given touch. He is more useful in PPR formats as opposed to standard. Sproles is also another sell high candidate. Smallwood may be the Eagles running back to own coming out of their Week 4 bye week.
Ingram finally came alive against the Falcons offense. He was a great buy-low candidate the first two weeks of the season, but Ingram’s price tag just went up. He is producing 0.64 fantasy points per touch through three games.
Sims was one of my favorite late round targets heading into the season and he shined when given an opportunity to be the featured back.
Elliott has produced 0.54 fantasy points per touch this season. He exploited a great matchup against the Bears defense. Elliott should get stronger as the season rolls on.
Gore continues to defy father time. He is producing 0.61 fantasy points per touch so far this season.
Top 24 Offensive Snaps Among Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Team | Snaps | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | Util % |
| 1 | David Johnson | ARI | 79 | 96 | 24 | 8 | 32 |
| 2 | Charles Sims | TB | 68 | 76 | 19 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Lamar Miller | HOU | 54 | 76 | 39 | 9 | 48 |
| 4 | Todd Gurley | LA | 52 | 80 | 52 | 4 | 56 |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 52 | 75 | 58 | 4 | 62 |
| 6 | Melvin Gordon | SD | 52 | 87 | 31 | 14 | 44 |
| 7 | DeAngelo Williams | PIT | 52 | 87 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| 8 | DeMarco Murray | TEN | 51 | 75 | 31 | 10 | 41 |
| 9 | Jordan Howard | CHI | 49 | 75 | 18 | 12 | 31 |
| 10 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | 48 | 75 | 35 | 8 | 44 |
| 11 | Kenyan Drake | MIA | 48 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 23 |
| 12 | CJ Anderson | DEN | 48 | 72 | 29 | 8 | 38 |
| 13 | LeGarrette Blount | NE | 46 | 72 | 52 | 0 | 52 |
| 14 | Christine Michael | SEA | 45 | 64 | 44 | 7 | 51 |
| 15 | Spencer Ware | KC | 45 | 71 | 44 | 2 | 47 |
| 16 | Theo Riddick | DET | 45 | 66 | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| 17 | Andy Janovich | DEN | 45 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Frank Gore | IND | 43 | 61 | 49 | 7 | 56 |
| 19 | Justin Forsett | BAL | 43 | 64 | 16 | 16 | 33 |
| 20 | Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 42 | 51 | 36 | 2 | 38 |
| 21 | Duke Johnson | CLE | 41 | 50 | 24 | 17 | 42 |
| 22 | Matt Forte | NYJ | 41 | 60 | 37 | 10 | 46 |
| 23 | Jamize Olawale | OAK | 41 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 24 | Carlos Hyde | SF | 40 | 70 | 53 | 3 | 55 |
Source: FantasyData
The visual above does not include data from the Monday Night Football game between the Falcons and Saints. A high number of snaps presents opportunities. Snap percentage refers to the percentage of total offensive snaps the respective player participated in. Rush percentage helps us understand what percentage the respective player had a rushing attempt. Target percentage refers to what percentage the respective player was targeted by a pass attempt. Utility percentage refers to what percentage the respective player touched the football or was targeted. Let us discuss some observations from the visual above.
Johnson continues to leverage his opportunity. He was on the field for 96 percent of the Cardinals offensive snaps. Gordon (87) was also on the field for a high percentage of the Chargers snaps. In an NFL world filled with committees, this high snap percentage is hard to come by.
Elliott and Smallwood were utilized on a high percentage snaps. This type of usage is very encouraging. If you are in need of running back help I recommend that you target Smallwood if you happen to miss out on the other big waiver wire names. He may be under the radar due to the Eagles Week 4 bye week.
Coleman, Hyde, Lacy, and Ingram all had a utility percentage over 50 percent. The stock of all of these running backs is trending up. Miller continues to play a high number of snaps (166) and has touched the football on 51 percent of them, but the fantasy production is simply not there. I would continue to be patience. Riddick has touched the football on 39 percent of his 120 snaps. He does not have the physical profile of a featured back. Lions running back Dwayne Washington could see more work this week against the Bears according to ESPN reporter Michael Rothstein.
A high number of snaps place running backs in a position for success, but how successful are they with the opportunity?
Top 50 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity Among Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Team | Fantasy Points | PPO | PPS |
| 1 | Tevin Coleman | ATL | 28 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| 2 | Darren Sproles | PHI | 19 | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| 3 | Damien Williams | MIA | 8 | 0.89 | 0.25 |
| 4 | Jay Ajayi | MIA | 9 | 0.82 | 0.39 |
| 4 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | 27 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| 6 | Jeremy Hill | CIN | 22 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| 7 | LeGarrette Blount | NE | 22 | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| 8 | Christine Michael | SEA | 23 | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| 9 | Orleans Darkwa | NYG | 12 | 0.67 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Shane Vereen | NYG | 15 | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| 11 | Carlos Hyde | SF | 22 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| 12 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | 23 | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| 13 | Wendell Smallwood | PHI | 14 | 0.61 | 0.5 |
| 14 | DeMarco Murray | TEN | 22 | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| 15 | Latavius Murray | OAK | 10 | 0.5 | 0.33 |
| 15 | Bobby Rainey | NYG | 2 | 0.5 | 0.11 |
| 17 | Mark Ingram | NO | 17 | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| 17 | Todd Gurley | LA | 20 | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| 19 | Benny Cunningham | LA | 4 | 0.4 | 0.15 |
| 20 | Frank Gore | IND | 14 | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| 21 | Charles Sims | TB | 18 | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| 21 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 16 | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| 23 | Jalen Richard | OAK | 4 | 0.36 | 0.2 |
| 24 | David A. Johnson | ARZ | 23 | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| 24 | Derek Watt | SD | 1 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| 24 | Eddie Lacy | GB | 10 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| 24 | Melvin Gordon | SD | 14 | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| 28 | Duke Johnson | CLV | 8 | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| 29 | Cameron Artis-Payne | CAR | 6 | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| 30 | Mike Gillislee | BUF | 2 | 0.29 | 0.06 |
| 31 | Isaiah Crowell | CLV | 8 | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| 32 | Fozzy Whittaker | CAR | 6 | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| 32 | Bilal Powell | NYJ | 7 | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| 34 | Matthew Jones | WAS | 7 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| 35 | Kenyan Drake | MIA | 5 | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| 36 | Lamar Miller | HST | 11 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| 36 | Derrick Henry | TEN | 4 | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| 36 | Spencer Ware | KC | 8 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| 39 | Josh Ferguson | IND | 3 | 0.21 | 0.1 |
| 40 | Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 5 | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| 40 | Jordan Howard | CHI | 9 | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| 42 | Dwayne Washington | DET | 4 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| 42 | Andy Janovich | DEN | 2 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| 42 | Mike Tolbert | CAR | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| 45 | Matt Forte | NYJ | 6 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| 46 | Giovani Bernard | CIN | 4 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| 47 | Jacquizz Rodgers | TB | 2 | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| 47 | Jonathan Grimes | HST | 2 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| 47 | Matt Asiata | MIN | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| 50 | Theo Riddick | DET | 5 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, or PPO, is another resource provided by the great team at Pro Football Focus. It provides a more finely tuned point average that captures what an NFL player does with the one thing that he can truly control – his opportunity on the football field. PPO is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run. Points Per Snaps breaks down how productive a player was relative to the number of snaps played. These statistics are useful in attempting to identify players in a position to break out. The visual above represents the top 15 running backs in PPO who played 25 percent or more of the offensive snaps. Here is what I observed from Week 3’s data.
Smallwood is being criminally underrated. Eagles Ryan Mathews‘ snap count and touches have been sporadic all season. Orleans Darkwa has an opportunity to shine with Giants Shane Vereen out for the season and Jennings nursing a thumb injury. Jay Ajayi has an opportunity to shine with Arian Foster out, but the Dolphins coaching staff does not seem to trust him.
Lacy was finally given a consistent number of touches. The problem was that the Packers only had two rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. I sense better days are ahead for Lacy and his fantasy owners. Hyde continues to make the most of his opportunities. If DeMarco Murray continues to produce at this high of a level then it may be difficult for talented rookie Derrick Henry to receive more touches.
Bernard continues to be inefficient with his touches. Ware was in position for a much better fantasy day, but missed out on a six-yard touchdown after it was ruled a fumble. Much better fantasy days are ahead for Jordan Howard and Dwayne Washington.
Top 10 Teams in Fantasy Points Allowed To Running Backs Through Week 3
| Rank | Team | Team | Games | RB Pts | FP Allowed / Gm |
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | NO | 3 | 33.5 | 89.5 |
| 2 | Indianapolis Colts | IND | 3 | 28.1 | 80.3 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | WAS | 3 | 27 | 89 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 3 | 25.9 | 99.6 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT | 3 | 25.7 | 77.4 |
| 6 | Oakland Raiders | OAK | 3 | 22.5 | 90.8 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB | 3 | 22.4 | 88 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | CHI | 3 | 21.8 | 77.8 |
| 9 | San Diego Chargers | SD | 3 | 21.7 | 82.9 |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | BUF | 3 | 21.5 | 74.7 |
Source: FantasyData
The Saints defense gave up 308 total yards and four touchdowns to the Falcons running back by committee of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. This defense is an abomination and continues to give up a high number of fantasy points per game to running backs. The Colts, Redskins, and Falcons continue to be prime defenses to target when setting your starting running backs for your fantasy teams. The Falcons, Raiders, and Saints continue to allow a high number of total fantasy points per game.
Top 10 Teams in Red Zone Carries Through Week 3
| Team Name | Games | RZ In20 | RZ In10 | RZ In5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 24 | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 23 | 5 | 3 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 22 | 2 | 2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 18 | 2 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 3 | 18 | 4 | 3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| New England Patriots | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 14 | 2 | 2 |
Source: Rotowire
These statistics do not include data from Monday Night Football. The Eagles running backs have had a high number of rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. Ryan Mathews has benefited from it. The 49ers, Jets, and Broncos are up there as well. It has been unfortunate that Eddie Lacy has not been able to capitalize on the Packers rushing attempts. The impressive rushing performance last night from Coleman and Freeman will catapult the Falcons into the top 10 of red zone carries.
Quick Hitting Stats
The top four fantasy running backs in standard formats through three weeks are David Johnson (57), DeMarco Murray (55), Tevin Coleman (53), and DeAngelo Williams (53). The Zero RB methodology is alive and well in 2016.
Devonta Freeman (6.3), Isaiah Crowell (6.1), DeMarco Murray (6.0), Christine Michael (5.2), and Eddie Lacy (5.0) have 40 or more carries through three games and all average over 5.0 yards per carry.
Tevin Coleman is leading all running backs in fantasy points per snap (0.60) through three weeks.
DeAngelo Williams (21) is leading all running backs through three weeks in targets. David Johnson (169) is leading all running backs in receiving yards.
LeGarrette Blount (295) is leading all running backs in rushing yards and is tied for the most touchdowns (4). He also happens to be tied for the most fumbles with two through three weeks.
Derrick Henry (16.7), Tevin Coleman (16.0), and Spencer Ware (15.4) all have produced an impressive yards per target through three weeks.
Conclusion
The running back position continues to present volatility to fantasy owners on a weekly basis. There are a lot of statistics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. The purpose of this column is to assemble that data in an organized manner to enable you to make better decisions regarding your teams. What statistics stood out to you? Feel free to leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me on Twitter @EricNMoody where I am very active.
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