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By The Numbers: TE Edition (Week 3)

By The Numbers: TE Edition (Week 3)
Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen continues to see a steady diet of targets in the Panthers’ offense

Eric Moody provides the numbers behind Week 2 TE performances to help fantasy football owners prepare for Week 3.

Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another.

Dennis Pitta (12) was the only tight end to receive double-digit targets. He also led all tight ends in receptions with nine. Delanie Walker caught all of his six targets. Pitta, Martellus Bennett, and Greg Olsen were the only tight ends with 100 or more receiving yards. Eight tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points.

The fantasy football season continues to be a rollercoaster filled with numerous twists and turns. The goal of this weekly column is to share stats with you to provide you context, clarity, and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team. With that in mind, it’s time to dive into Week 2.

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Rk Player Team Targets Rec Pct Yds TD Long Yds/Target Yds/Rec FP
1 Greg Olsen CAR 8 5 63 122 1 78 15 24 18.2
2 Martellus Bennett NE 6 5 83 114 1 37 19 23 17.4
3 Delanie Walker TEN 6 6 100 83 1 32 14 14 14.3
4 Vance McDonald SF 2 1 50 75 1 75 38 75 13.5
5 Jacob Tamme ATL 8 5 63 75 1 19 9 15 13.5
6 Clive Walford OAK 7 6 86 50 1 31 7 8 11
7 Jordan Cameron MIA 7 5 71 49 1 13 7 10 10.9
8 Dennis Pitta BAL 12 9 75 102 0 30 9 11 10.2

Source: FantasyData

Olsen paid dividends for those fantasy owners who invested in a tight end early in drafts. He owns a 24.3 percent target share with the Panthers. Bennett displayed the potential he has in the Patriots offense when given an opportunity to make plays. Walker and the Titans offense recalibrated to make him a focus of the offensive game plan. McDonald continues to live or die by the big play. The highly touted breakout candidate only has five targets through two games. This is hardly the volume fantasy football championship dreams are made of. Tamme owns a 22.2 percent target share and has received 16 targets through two games. Could the Cameron breakout actually happen in 2016? This is positive momentum and he has a plus matchup against the Browns in Week 3. Pitta continued to be the favorite target of Ravens QB Joe Flacco. He owned a 26.7 percent target share among Ravens receivers.

Top 8 Offensive Snaps Among Tight Ends

Rk Player Team Snaps Snap Pct Tgt Pct
1 Martellus Bennett NE 86 100 7
2 Jesse James PIT 82 100 6
3 Greg Olsen CAR 76 92 11
4 Jason Witten DAL 73 100 6
5 Eric Ebron DET 71 90 10
6 Brent Celek PHI 67 74 2
7 Dwayne Allen IND 62 85 7
8 Julius Thomas JAX 61 92 12

Source: FantasyData

Bennett’s number of snaps moving forward will be tied to how often the Patriots will use two tight end formations. I anticipate that the Patriots will leverage it quite a bit once quarterback Tom Brady returns. I view Bennett as a TE2 with TE1 upside once Gronkowski returns. Allen is the beneficiary of wide receiver Donte Moncrief’s absence. He is the most legitimate red zone threat that the Colts have. Allen has elevated himself to TE1 status. Thomas only has a 13.6 percent target share among the Jaguars pass catchers. I was high on him heading into the season, but Thomas needs to be given consistent target volume in order for him to be successful.

Top 14 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity Among Tight Ends

Rank Player Team PPO
1 Vance McDonald SF 0.82
2 Martellus Bennett NE 0.71
3 Jacob Tamme ATL 0.54
4 Delanie Walker TEN 0.52
5 Greg Olsen CAR 0.50
6 Trey Burton PHI 0.44
7 Clive Walford OAK 0.37
8 Dennis Pitta BLT 0.31
8 Jesse James PIT 0.31
10 Virgil Green DEN 0.29
11 Kyle Rudolph MIN 0.27
12 Lance Kendricks LA 0.24
13 Levine Toilolo ATL 0.20
14 Jordan Reed WAS 0.19

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, or PPO, is another resource provided by the great team at Pro Football Focus. It provides a more finely tuned point average that captures what an NFL player does with the one thing that he can truly control – his opportunity on the football field. PPO is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run. These statistics are useful in attempting to identify players in a position to break out. The visual above represents the top 10 tight ends in PPO who played 50 percent or more of the offensive snaps. Here is what I observed from Week 2’s data.

McDonald desperately needs more targets. Tamme will be more important to the Falcons offense than I anticipated. He has a chance to repeat last week’s production in a plus matchup against the Saints on Monday Night Football. Walker was very efficient, but part of his 2015 intrigue revolved around his target volume. Rudolph is a tight end to target if you need assistance at the position. The Vikings are a pass-first team now with quarterback Sam Bradford under center. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner will be able to execute his scheme without having to cater to future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson. Reed remains my favorite buy-low candidate at the position. He should go boom sooner rather than later.

Top 8 Teams in Fantasy Points Allowed To Tight Ends Through Week 2

Rank Player Team Gms TE Pts
1 Detroit Lions DET 2 22
2 Atlanta Falcons ATL 2 15.9
3 Green Bay Packers GB 2 13.2
4 Oakland Raiders OAK 2 12.3
5 San Diego Chargers SD 2 12.1
6 Dallas Cowboys DAL 2 11.4
7 Miami Dolphins MIA 2 10.6
8 San Francisco 49ers SF 2 10

The matchup against the Falcons sets up very well for Saints tight end Coby Fleener. He has disappointed fantasy owners through two games this season, but starting him could pay dividends for those owners willing to take a leap of faith. The New Orleans Advocate mentioned that Saints quarterback Drew Brees said Fleener is “going to be an even bigger part of the offense” once the two find their chemistry. Could that connection come to fruition on Monday night in New Orleans within the Superdome? Walker, Allen, and Zach Miller all have intriguing matchups in Week 3.

Conclusion

It is difficult to find week to week point consistency at the tight end position. If you do not own Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, or Jordan Reed you throw one into your starting fantasy lineup and hope for the best. There are a lot of statistics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. The purpose of this column is to assemble that data in an organized manner to enable you to make better decisions regarding your teams. What statistics stood out to you? Feel free to leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me on Twitter @EricNMoody where I am very active.


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