Doug Baldwin continues to produce despite the Seahawks’ offensive concerns
Eric Moody provides the numbers behind Week 3 WR performances to help fantasy football owners prepare for Week 4.
Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another.
Twenty wide receivers had double-digit targets with Antonio Brown leading the way with 17. Brown (12) and Evans (10) were the only wide receivers with double-digit catches. Twelve wide receivers had 100 or more receiving yards with Marvin Jones leading the way with 205. Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson, and Allen Robinson all scored two touchdowns in Week 3. Quincy Enunwa led all wide receivers in drops with three. Cole Beasley caught all seven of his targets.
Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant suffered a knee injury in Week 3. It does not appear to be serious, but something to keep on your radar. Steelers wide receiver Eli Rogers is dealing with a toe injury and is likely to miss Week 4.
The fantasy football season continues to be a rollercoaster filled with numerous twists and turns. The goal of this weekly column is to share stats with you to provide you context, clarity, and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team. With that in mind, it’s time to dive into Week 3.
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Top 20 Fantasy Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Team | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | Marvin Jones | DET | 8 | 6 | 75 | 205 | 2 | 73 | 26 | 34 | 32.5 |
| 2 | Terrelle Pryor | CLE | 14 | 8 | 57 | 144 | 0 | 40 | 10 | 18 | 23.9 |
| 3 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 13 | 9 | 69 | 117 | 2 | 41 | 9 | 13 | 23.7 |
| 4 | TY Hilton | IND | 11 | 8 | 73 | 174 | 1 | 63 | 16 | 22 | 23.4 |
| 5 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 7 | 6 | 86 | 101 | 2 | 49 | 14 | 17 | 22.1 |
| 6 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 10 | 8 | 80 | 164 | 1 | 59 | 16 | 21 | 22 |
| 7 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 12 | 7 | 58 | 120 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 17 | 19.6 |
| 8 | Mike Evans | TB | 13 | 10 | 77 | 132 | 1 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 19.2 |
| 9 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 11 | 7 | 64 | 57 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 17.7 |
| 10 | Tavon Austin | LA | 8 | 5 | 63 | 82 | 1 | 43 | 10 | 16 | 16.4 |
| 11 | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 8 | 5 | 63 | 96 | 1 | 44 | 12 | 19 | 15.6 |
| 12 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 7 | 6 | 86 | 100 | 1 | 55 | 14 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 18 | 12 | 67 | 140 | 0 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 14 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | 7 | 4 | 57 | 78 | 1 | 55 | 11 | 20 | 13.8 |
| 15 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 7 | 5 | 71 | 73 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 15 | 13.3 |
| 16 | Michael Thomas | NO | 11 | 7 | 64 | 71 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 13.1 |
| 17 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 11 | 7 | 64 | 121 | 0 | 26 | 11 | 17 | 12.1 |
| 18 | Brian Quick | LA | 2 | 2 | 100 | 53 | 1 | 44 | 27 | 27 | 11.3 |
| 19 | Devante Parker | MIA | 6 | 3 | 50 | 51 | 1 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 11.1 |
| 20 | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 11 | 8 | 73 | 102 | 0 | 31 | 9 | 13 | 10.2 |
Marvin Jones produced 5.41 fantasy points per reception and helped owners win fantasy leagues in Week 3. He should continue to be viewed as a weekly WR2 with WR1 upside any given week. Terrelle Pryor is the utility tool of fantasy football. This is how Tim Tebow should have been used by NFL coaching staffs. The upside is there for him, but it would be wise to have proper expectations moving forward. Emmanuel Sanders continues to provide owners a great value relative to his average draft position. He is averaging 12.1 yards per reception through three games. Hilton made fantasy owners cringe if they benched him in Week 3. He produced 2.93 fantasy points per reception and is back on the WR1 radar. Another wide receiver performance that helped win fantasy matchups. Nelson (4) is currently leading all wide receivers in touchdown receptions and continues to be an elite WR1 in the Packers explosive offense.
Doug Baldwin continues to trounce on the talk of negative regression. He continues to rack up catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Baldwin has caught 80 percent of his 25 targets for 272 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. He can be viewed as a low-end WR1 each and every week. Landry continues to be pile up targets in the Dolphins offense. Only Antonio Brown and Mike Evans have more through three games. Allen Robinson got back on track in Week 3 and produced 2.53 fantasy points per reception. Can Tavon Austin be trusted in a dysfunctional Rams offense? The answer is no, but his upside places him on the WR3 radar.
DeSean Jackson can go boom any given week. All it takes is one play as 46 percent of his receiving yardage came on one play. Demaryius Thomas is back on the WR2 radar. The Broncos offense decided to lean on the passing game against the Bengals in Week 3. Brown would have had a much bigger fantasy day if he scored a touchdown. The silver lining of owning him in fantasy is simple. You have the safest floor in fantasy football as your weekly WR1. Brown is currently the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver. Crowder is a must-own player in PPR formats. He is currently leading the Redskins wide receivers in targets for the season with 23. Shepard continues to meet expectations only three games into his rookie season. He has produced 2.18 fantasy points per receptions through Week 3.
Michael Thomas had an opportunity to shine, but remember the Saints offense loves spreading targets around. Odell Beckham got back on track in Week 3. The touchdowns will come. He remains an elite WR1. DeVante Parker has looked solid in his first two games of the season. He has 18 targets, 11 receptions, 157 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Parker has also played on 87 percent of the Dolphins offensive snaps in his two games. Michael Crabtree (24) continues to get fed a higher number of targets. Amari Cooper only has four more targets on the season, but Crabtree has more fantasy points.
Top 20 Offensive Snaps Among Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Team | Snaps | Snap % | Tgt % | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 80 | 98 | 15 | 6 |
| 2 | Terrelle Pryor | CLE | 78 | 95 | 18 | 23.9 |
| 3 | Mike Evans | TB | 78 | 87 | 17 | 19.2 |
| 4 | Brandin Cooks | NO | 78 | 96 | 10 | 1.9 |
| 5 | Vincent Jackson | TB | 77 | 86 | 8 | 3.7 |
| 6 | Michael Floyd | ARI | 74 | 90 | 15 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Michael Thomas | NO | 72 | 89 | 15 | 13.1 |
| 8 | Will Fuller | HOU | 71 | 100 | 10 | 3.1 |
| 9 | Brandon Coleman | NO | 69 | 85 | 12 | 7.8 |
| 10 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 69 | 97 | 12 | 5.6 |
| 11 | Eric Decker | NYJ | 68 | 100 | 9 | 3.1 |
| 12 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 67 | 100 | 16 | 12.1 |
| 13 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 66 | 99 | 18 | 19.6 |
| 14 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 66 | 99 | 11 | 13.3 |
| 15 | Victor Cruz | NYG | 66 | 99 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 66 | 97 | 15 | 2.7 |
| 17 | Marvin Jones | DET | 65 | 96 | 12 | 32.5 |
| 18 | Kenny Stills | MIA | 65 | 97 | 12 | 7.6 |
| 19 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 65 | 100 | 11 | 7 |
| 20 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 64 | 97 | 17 | 17.7 |
A high number of snaps presents opportunities. Snap percentage refers to the percentage of total offensive snaps the respective player participated in. Target percentage refers to what percentage the respective player was targeted by a pass attempt.
Larry Fitzgerald continues to be the Cardinals wide receiver to own in fantasy. He continues to lead the team in targets (30), fantasy points (41), and is the field for nearly all of the offensive snaps. Terrelle Pryor also played a high percentage of the Browns snaps and was used in multiple ways, but he needs to improve on his 54 percent catch rate as a wide receiver in order to provide consistent fantasy value. Michael Floyd and Vincent Jackson are on the field a high percentage of the snaps, but they are simply not producing for fantasy owners through three games. Michael Thomas played his highest snap count of the season in Week 3. This was due to Willie Snead being inactive. Brandon Marshall actually ended up playing 97 percent of the Jets offensive snaps. Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz, Marvin Jones, and a number of wide receivers were on the field for nearly all of their respective team’s offensive snaps.
Top 30 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Team | PPS | PPO |
| 1 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 0.49 | 0.81 |
| 2 | Marvin Jones | DET | 0.5 | 0.73 |
| 3 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 0.41 | 0.71 |
| 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| 4 | Rod Streater | SF | 0.1 | 0.67 |
| 6 | Brian Quick | LA | 0.33 | 0.65 |
| 7 | Tavon Austin | LA | 0.31 | 0.64 |
| 8 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | 0.4 | 0.61 |
| 9 | Justin Hardy | ATL | 0.32 | 0.60 |
| 10 | Terrelle Pryor | CLV | 0.31 | 0.55 |
| 11 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| 12 | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| 13 | James Wright | CIN | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| 14 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| 15 | Davante Adams | GB | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| 15 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| 17 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| 17 | Dez Bryant | DAL | 0.2 | 0.40 |
| 19 | Terrance Williams | DAL | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| 19 | Mike Evans | TB | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| 21 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| 21 | Cole Beasley | DAL | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| 23 | Seth Roberts | OAK | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| 23 | Steve L. Smith | BLT | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| 25 | Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| 25 | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| 25 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 0.2 | 0.30 |
| 28 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| 29 | Jordan Matthews | PHI | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| 30 | Michael A. Thomas | NO | 0.18 | 0.25 |
Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, or PPO, is another resource provided by the great team at Pro Football Focus. It provides a more finely tuned point average that captures what an NFL player does with the one thing that he can truly control – his opportunity on the football field. PPO is calculated by taking a player’s total fantasy points scored and dividing it by his carries plus his pass routes run. These statistics are useful in attempting to identify players in a position to break out. The visual above represents the top 30 wide receivers in PPO who played 25 percent or more of the offensive snaps. Here is what I observed from Week 3’s data.
Marvin Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, and Doug Baldwin continue to be very effective despite being criminally underrated heading into the 2016 season. Jamison Crowder is leading the Redskins wide receivers in targets with 23. He continues to emerge as a viable component of the Redskins offense in the absence of Josh Doctson due to his injury woes. Jarvis Landry continues to be ridiculously effective relative to his target volume. Terrelle Pryor is a fantasy wild card, but he should continue to see a high number of targets with Corey Coleman out with a hand injury.
Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley stand to benefit from Dez Bryant’s knee injury. Demaryius Thomas is firmly back on the WR2 radar. Steve Smith will not go away quietly into the night. He still has fantasy viability in 2016. DeVante Parker continues to emerge as the Dolphins No. 2 wide receiver. Michael Crabtree continues to sap the fantasy value away from Amari Cooper.
Top 10 Teams in Fantasy Points Allowed To Wide Receivers Through Week 3
| Rank | Team | Team | WR Pts |
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | GB | 43.9 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN | 40 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | CLE | 38.3 |
| 4 | New York Giants | NYG | 36.4 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | DET | 33.6 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | LA | 33.5 |
| 7 | Washington Redskins | WAS | 32.4 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB | 30.7 |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins | MIA | 29.4 |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 27.2 |
The Packers, Browns, Giants and Lions continue to be prime targets when making start or sit decisions with your wide receiver core.
Quick Hitting Stats
- Victor Cruz is averaging 17.7 yards per reception and has caught 79 percent of his 14 targets.
- Brandon Marshall (27) only has two more targets than Quincy Enunwa (25).
- Michael Floyd has only caught 39 percent of his 23 targets this season.
- Jaron Brown has an aDOT or depth of target of 19.3 yards, has played 40 percent of the Cardinals total offensive snaps, and was targeted on 12 percent of them. He is someone to monitor in deeper formats.
Conclusion
The wide receiver position continues to drive fantasy production on a weekly basis. There are a lot of statistics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. The purpose of this column is to assemble that data in an organized manner to enable you to make better decisions regarding your teams. What statistics stood out to you? Feel free to leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me on Twitter @EricNMoody where I am very active.
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