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DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 3 (Thu/Sun)

DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 3 (Thu/Sun)
Eli Manning

Eli Manning should be able to bounce back following a disappointing fantasy showing Week 2

NFL Week 3 is approaching quickly! Start your research here and let me help you find a few diamonds in the rough. This article features multiple correlation plays that provide the upside you need to take down a tournament. Game flow, Vegas spreads and projected outcomes are always considered when constructing this lineup.

The Miami Dolphins weigh in as the heaviest favorite with the spread currently at -10.0. The San Diego Chargers and Indianapolis Colts currently post the highest over/under (o/u) on DraftKings’ main slate at 51.5. The Green Bay Packers are making their debut in Lambeau Field and own the highest projected team total (TT) at 28.0, while the San Francisco 49ers have a putrid projected TT of only 15.5.

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Quarterback

Eli Manning (NYG): $7,000 vs. WAS

The New York Giants burned a lot of people last week after they continued to torch the Saints in the air, but somehow managed to stay out of the end zone. Plenty of people had exposure to the Giants and/or Saints last week and will be irked by the thought of going back to the well.

Vegas currently has the o/u at a respectable 46.5. However, I’m very confident in that number going over. Eli Manning has a plethora of options at the wideout position, starting with Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz.

If you have watched the Redskins play or have been able to watch tape on them, you’ll notice they have been getting torched in the air. Sure, Ben Roethlisberger can light anyone up, but what about a rookie quarterback playing on the road like Dak Prescott? This game is in New York at MetLife Stadium where Eli is comfortable chucking the ball and the Redskins won’t have any crowd control, playing their first road game of 2016.

The Redskins have already allowed 65 points in their first two games and the Giants have a solid projected TT at 25.5. One way of getting exposure to the elite wide receivers is by taking their quarterback. If you roster Manning and fade Beckham Jr., you won’t be as upset when he goes off. Note: Fading OBJ altogether is not advised.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray (TEN): $6,300 vs. OAK

Writing up DeMarco Murray last week was a success even though he received the most mixed reviews from my audience. DraftKings is a full point-per-reception (PPR), giving Murray tons of upside due to his solid pass-catching abilities out of the backfield. Murray has 12 receptions on 14 targets along with 25 touches on the ground over his last two games.

The Titans have a welcoming projected TT of 24.3, and the Raiders have allowed over 1,000 yards and 69 points in their first two games. To put it simply, the Raiders are having a very difficult time keeping points off the board.

The Raiders aren’t going to lay over in this one, and I expect it to be a competitive game, but either scenario plays into Murray’s favor yet again. If the Titans are in a shootout, Murray stays on the field and racks up points in multiple ways. If they are down, Murray likely grabs a ton of balls in the air while playing from behind or in garbage time.

Melvin Gordon (SD): $5,800 @ IND

Melvin Gordon very well might be the chalk play of the week. If so, I’m okay with that because I’m going to be overweight in tournaments regardless. Everyone loves the new flavor of the week in the NFL and with so many injuries already occurring, the guys that are being mentioned are Jay Ajayi, Jerick McKinnon/Matt Asiata, Fozzy Whittaker/Cameron Artis-Payne, Theo Riddick/Dwayne Washington, so on and so on.

The Chargers were dealt a difficult card when their versatile and elite pass-catching back Danny Woodhead tore his ACL. With Woodhead out for the season, the Bolts’ backfield is all Gordon’s now. The second-year running back out of the University of Wisconsin is having a stellar start to his sophomore year, posting 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 38 attempts.

In Week 1, Gordon didn’t register a single target in the passing game. After Woodhead went down in Week 2, Gordon hauled in three receptions on all three targets. Don’t even begin to panic about Dexter McCluster being signed, and don’t overthink Gordon’s ownership this week. The Colts are atrocious on defense and can’t stop anyone on the ground.

This game features the highest o/u at 51.5 with the Chargers only being a -2.5 dog on the road. Vegas expects this game to stay close with plenty of points being scored from both sides.

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,600 @ PHI

Football is supposed to fun and enjoyable to watch while making a boatload of money by Sunday night. What better way to maximize your upside than rostering Antonio Brown? There really isn’t any other way. Sure, I know you’re already thinking about last week’s dud that he put up. Trust me, that is not going to happen this Sunday. This actually might be a rare week that you can get Brown at sub-20% in tournaments. If so, you better be overweight.

The Eagles haven’t faced a true test this season after facing the Browns and “Da Bears.” Vegas doesn’t seem to think the Eagles are the real deal just yet as they are underdogs at home (+3.5). Big Ben and the Steelers’ prolific offense is going to force the Eagles into a shootout, no matter how slow the Eagles want to keep this game for their rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. The Steelers are averaging the highest plays per game, with an average of 67.5.

The question isn’t if Brown scores a touchdown on Sunday. The question is will he try to do his gyration that he calls “Boomin” for his celebration? If he does, he will be fined by the NFL again, but we already know Brown’s thoughts on that.

“Nothing to a boss” – Antonio Brown

Sterling Shepard (NYG): $5,500 vs. WAS

ROUND 2: Josh Norman vs. Odell Beckham Jr.

You had to know one of the Giants’ wideouts was going to be featured after reading about Eli Manning. Even though I would love to include Odell in this lineup, he isn’t the Giants’ receiver I’m the highest on this weekend after considering salary and ownership.

Sterling Shepard has impressed me in every facet of his game thus far, catching 11 of his 12 targets after two games. What I noticed the most after watching film, was Eli’s chemistry and trust he has with Shepard. Half of Shepard’s 12 targets have been on third down and he is a perfect 6-for-6 in those situations, with five of them resulting in a first down.

This game is going to be a shootout and $5,500 is a laughable salary for Shepard. Game flow is going to increase as the game goes on, and the Giants love to get into a hurry-up offense once they get in a rhythm. Eli isn’t shy about going right back to what works. The way I see it, Shepard is going to be the guy who gets fed the most in this game.

Josh Doctson (WAS): $3,000 @ NYG

After Josh Doctson blows up this Sunday, the world will notice Sterling Shepard and Ezekiel Elliot have competition for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Doctson was limited this offseason while dealing with an Achilles injury. The Redskins didn’t have to put him on the PUP list and slowly eased him into action in Week 1. Last week, his snaps were increased and he was able to show off his elite talent with a 57-yard reception. It was very encouraging to see Redskins’ quarterback Kirk Cousins target Doctson five times with three targets in the red-zone.

If Doctson stays healthy going forward, his reps are going to continue to increase, similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. This is another week in the right direction and the Redskins are going to need to score plenty of points to keep up in this one. $3,000 for a player with this upside and elite abilities is criminal. Health aside, you will never see Josh Doctson for $3,000 again going forward. Buy now.

Tight End

Clive Walford (OAK): $2,800 @ TEN

Walford is legit and you probably don’t know that, but I won’t fault you for it. Walford’s efficiency this season has been stellar, grabbing nine of his 12 targets. Those 12 targets currently rank ninth overall at the tight end position.

The Raiders are a pass-heavy offense with Walford molding in very well in his second season with the silver and black. His size at 6’4”, 250, is a mismatch for most defenders and it’s only a matter of time until he puts it all together.

Last week could very well be an indication of things moving forward for Walford and the Raiders’ offense as he was targeted seven times with six receptions, 50 yards and a touchdown.

FLEX

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $6,900 vs. CHI

41 carries, four targets and two touchdowns in two games. Love that. #volume

Elliott hasn’t busted out by any means yet, but that time is coming on Sunday. Vegas has the Cowboys as a -7 favorite and their projected TT is the third highest on the main slate at 26.0.

The game flow will be negative as the Cowboys love to slow games down by running the ball. The Bears’ defense is below-average if you want to put it nicely, and the Cowboys’ offensive line is arguably the best in the league. You can safely assume 20-plus carries for Elliott and his targets should increase each week with his chemistry building stronger with rookie teammate Dak Prescott.

The popular strategy tends to be finding value at running back and paying up at wide receiver. With there being so many savings throughout DraftKings in Week 3, that very well might be the case on Sunday. Now that DraftKings doesn’t include Monday Night Football on the main slate, Sunday Night Football is our honorary late-night hammer. If you’re at the top come primetime, you’ll be a happy camper with your Elliott exposure.

Defense/Special Teams

Miami Dolphins: $3,000 vs. CLE

So far, so good in the defense/special teams (D/ST) department for us! In Week 1, the Minnesota Vikings were featured and they produced with a defensive touchdown while being racking up 21 fantasy points (FPTS). In Week 2, the Denver Broncos were featured and they mustered up two touchdowns and 22 FPTS. That was then, this is now.

The Miami Dolphins grade out as my highest projected D/ST when considering point-per-dollar. Getting exposure to teams playing at home, and even more so when it’s their home opener, is something I love to do. After two brutal matchups in Seattle and New England, the Dolphins head home to Miami and will face a depleted Browns’ offense that has seen better days.

The Browns are down to their third option at the quarterback position and that guy is Cody Kessler. Reports last week stated that Kessler wasn’t even ready to play. Fortunately for us, he has to. Josh Gordon isn’t going to play and now Corey Coleman (hand) isn’t going to touch the field either. In other words, the Browns don’t have much talent on the offensive side of the ball this Sunday.

Chalky as the Dolphins might be, this is a play that warrants exposure in all formats. Their defense has plenty of talent and they currently weigh in as the heaviest favorite on the slate at -10.0, and the Browns have the second lowest projected TT at 15.8. Kessler will be forced to throw way more than anybody wants him to, which equals more opportunities for the defense. Hell, the Dolphins could have Ray Finkle at kicker and they would still cover the spread.

Recommended Tournament Lineup

If you have any questions or need suggestions, feel free to tweet me at any time. Best of luck this week!

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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.

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