Despite two nice performances from Carlos Hyde, his price continues to fall
Week 4 is here, and there are two teams on the bye, as well as a game being played early in London. I will exclude the London game, along with the Monday night contest, from this lineup.
We took a step back in Week 3, after two solid lineups to start the season. Marcus Mariota looked bad in his game against Oakland, and his fantasy output (7.76 DKP) reflected that. He scored at least 17 DKP in his first two starts, and the Raiders had been blasted in the passing game the first two weeks, so the logic was relatively sound for tournaments.
C.J. Anderson (5.1 DKP) was the other big letdown, as the Bengals sold out to stop the run and let Trevor Siemian throw for a monster game. The hits included: David Johnson (26.1 DKP), DeVante Parker (14.1 DKP), Sterling Shepard (18.3 DKP), Tyrell Williams (12.9 DKP) and Ezekiel Elliott (21 DKP).
Hopefully we can avoid the pitfalls this week and get back on track. Let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for the main Sunday slate (1 PM start) on DraftKings.
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Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $7,100 vs. KC
The Steelers add Le’Veon Bell back into the mix this week, which will likely lead to some owners flocking towards the running back. I am going to lean on Roethlisberger, with the notion that he should be more dangerous with another weapon at his disposal. Roethlisberger’s price is down from the start of the season, and he could be a bit lower owned after last week’s debacle.
Other Notables:
- Cam Newton (CAR): $7,800 @ ATL
- Carson Palmer (ARI): $6,300 vs. LA (GPP)
- Philip Rivers (SD): $6,900 vs. NO
- Dak Prescott (DAL): $5,700 @ SF (GPP)
Running Back
LeGarrette Blount (NE): $5,000 vs. BUF
A lot of owners tend to overlook Blount on DraftKings, as he is rarely utilized in the passing game (zero catches thus far). However, it’s important to note that Blount leads the league in rushing attempts (75), and he’s currently eighth in DKPs per game (19.6). The Patriots are home favorites against the Bills, who have struggled to defend opposing rushing attacks, so I expect another healthy dose of Blount in Week 4.
Carlos Hyde (SF): $4,200 vs. DAL
Hyde scored 23.3 DKP in Week 1, yet his price dropped $500. In Week 2, he scored just 7.2 DKP, which led to his price dropping to $4,400. He bounced back in Week 3, scoring 28.5 DKP, and his price dropped another $200!
Through three games, Hyde received 20+ carries in those two strong performances, and he still had 14 carries in the Week 2 game. This tells me that game script isn’t likely to affect Hyde, and he will have a good matchup to try and keep things rolling.
Other Notables:
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $6,900 @ SF (GPP)
- Melvin Gordon (SD): $6,300 vs. NO
- Spencer Ware (KC): $5,700 @ PIT (GPP; ownership % could be down with Jamaal Charles back)
- Isaiah Crowell (CLE): $4,400 @ WAS (GPP)
- Jordan Howard (CHI): $3,700 vs. DET
Wide Receiver
Doug Baldwin (SEA): $6,100 @ NYJ
Baldwin has scored at least 24 DKP in two out of three games, and he’s seen at least six targets in all three contests. With Russell Wilson banged up, I expect him to stay in the pocket and throw, rather than scramble, which should lead to more targets against the Jets. The Jets rank in the bottom third in regards to fantasy points allowed per game to receivers, making Baldwin a fine play on the road this week.
Will Fuller (HOU): $5,300 vs. TEN
Fuller is likely to see a lot of Perrish Cox this week, who has been awful through three weeks. The Texans are looking for a spark on offense, as evidenced by Bill O’Brien reassuming play calling duties. Fuller is a deep threat that is a good candidate for a big score on any given week, so be sure to get some exposure to him in a plus matchup.
Tyrell Williams (SD): $4,400 vs. IND
I am going back to the well with Williams, who scored 12.9 DKP in Week 3 against the Colts. Williams has plenty of speed, and he will face a depleted New Orleans secondary at home in Week 4. Sterling Moore should be covering Williams, which will likely lead to another strong outing for the talented wide out.
Other Notables:
- Julio Jones (ATL): $9,200 vs. CAR (GPP)
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $8,400 vs. TEN
- Alshon Jeffery (CHI): $7,500 vs. DET (GPP)
- Mike Evans (TB): $6,500 vs. DEN (GPP)
- Travis Benjamin (SD): $5,900 vs. NO
- Michael Crabtree (OAK): $6,400 @ BAL (GPP)
- Jamison Crowder (WAS): $4,200 vs. CLE
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC): $4,800 @ PIT
The Chiefs are underdogs on the road, which should mean a bit more from their passing game this week. Kelce has seen seven targets in all three games, and he found the end zone last week. Ryan Shazier is out this week, which boosts Kelce’s stock heading into Sunday night.
Other Notables:
- Greg Olsen (CAR): $6,000 @ ATL
- Dennis Pitta (BAL): $3,400 vs. OAK (GPP)
- Zach Miller (CHI): $2,700 vs. DET (GPP)
Flex
Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,700 vs. KC
Brown rebounded from a tough Week 2 performance, by posting 29 DKP against the Eagles, as he hauled in 12 catches for 140 yards. Despite the return of Bell, Brown still has massive upside, especially in this matchup. The Chiefs were beaten badly by DeAndre Hopkins and Fuller in Week 2, and the Steelers have an implied total pushing 27, so I expect plenty of fireworks on Sunday night.
Defense/Special Teams
Houston Texans (HOU): $3,200 vs. TEN
The Titans have one of the lower implied team totals of the weekend (18), so don’t be afraid to target the Texans. With J.J. Watt on the shelf, they could go overlooked in tournaments, but the matchup is too good to ignore.
Other Notables:
- Arizona Cardinals (ARI): $3,900 vs. LA
- New England Patriots (NE): $3,300 vs. BUF
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
