Kirk Cousins’s Week 4 opponent has allowed at least two TD passes to opposing QBs each week this season

So, I’m going to come clean a bit this week. I’ve been keeping something inside for the first few weeks of the NFL season, but I’ve got to let it out now. It’s time. It’s eating me up inside.

This offseason, I wrote a few articles to help you all with your draft/auction prep (I know it was unnecessary to say that because you all, like me, have them framed in your man cave in your house, but still). One of them was about why you should wait on QB during your draft, and employ the process of streaming QBs throughout the season. The second was the 10 Fantasy Football Commandments. The third commandment was “Thou shalt wait on thy quarterback.”

I am nearly always one of the last guys in my league to draft a quarterback. It’s a strategy that makes sense and, more often than not, works for me. And, in many of my leagues, I did just that. But, in my two oldest leagues, the ones in which there is the most smack talk, I didn’t. I can’t explain it. They were my last two drafts of the season, and they’re not all that competitive anyway. I didn’t love what I saw in the fourth round, and so I took Russell Wilson (with an early fourth-round pick) and Andrew Luck (with a late fourth-round pick). “You know, I never draft a QB on the early side. Wilson is unstoppable. Luck should return to glory. And, whatever, I’ll make it up at the end of the draft.”

Wrong. I’m a combined 1-5 in those two leagues, having lost by slim margins in four of my five losses. Waiver wire quarterbacks are tearing it up, while Wilson and Luck struggle. And the worst part is, after an opponent beats me, you know what the smack talk is? They just post one of my articles on the message board, with a brief note. “Should’ve listened to that guy,” one says. “Dude, it’s the THIRD commandment,” says another.

Sigh. Whatever. I deserve it. If ever there were evidence of why you should wait on a QB and stream, it’s this season. And particularly Week 3.

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1. Trevor Siemian
2. Matthew Stafford
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Drew Brees
5. Jameis Winston
6. Dak Prescott
7. Carson Wentz
8. Matt Ryan
9. Kirk Cousins (seriously? After I backed you for two weeks and you laid eggs? Too mean, Kirk)
10. Ryan Tannehill
11. Brian Hoyer
12. Tyrod Taylor

We’ll get to my list in a minute, but all I have to say about that list is . . . seriously, man? That list is nonsense. If I gave you 1,000 chances to predict the top 12 quarterbacks last week, no one was coming up with that list. So, I get that the fantasy gods are having a little fun, but let’s at least keep it fair.

Now my (admittedly way off-base) list:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Cam Newton
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Eli Manning
6. Carson Palmer
7. Andrew Luck
8. Matt Ryan
9. Philip Rivers
10. Blake Bortles
11. Ryan Tannehill
12. Marcus Mariota

Notable Omissions: Russell Wilson and Derek Carr

That is FOUR correct (Rodgers, Ryan, Brees and Tannehill, though at least I correctly thought that Wilson and Carr would finish outside the top 12 – silver linings). Ordinarily, I’d feel pretty awful about that, but no. Not this time. I’m not beating myself up for failing to predict Siemian against the Bengals, Wentz against the Steelers, or Brian Hoyer against ANYONE. So, we’re gonna shake it off and move on to better days.

The Obvious Names

Cam Newton (CAR)
An angry Cam Newton coming off a loss in a divisional game that is sort of a must win? Yes, please. I think we can fairly chalk last week off to the Vikings defense being utterly legitimate. The Falcons defense? Not as much. Cam will bounce back well.

Drew Brees (NO)
Not sure there has ever been a QB with quite the home/away splits that Brees has, and since we’re on the road here, it would seem like it might be time to keep Brees out of this column. But, he’s still Drew Brees, taking on a poor defense, and it’s the old revenge game. No worries here.

Note: Without Aaron Rodgers, that’s it for what I’d consider the obvious names. From here on out, we’re dealing with less confident categories, such as:

The Sort Of Obvious But You Let Me Down Sometimes Names

Philip Rivers (SD)
Phil, can I call you Phil? Cool. Look, you really let me down last week against Indianapolis. It was very disappointing. I get it. You don’t have any weapons left. So, I’ll give you a pass. But, let’s be clear. This is the Saints we’re talking about this week. Not the Colts. The Saints. And you’re at home, where your numbers are always better. You owe me – nay, you owe ALL of us – a big game. Let it rip.

Andrew Luck (IND)
I don’t really love what I’m seeing from Luck these days, which is disappointing for many reasons. But, against Jacksonville in a road game that’s not really a road game because he’s playing in London? Yeah, I’m good with that.

Matthew Stafford (DET)
The poster child for why you should wait on QB in your draft. Stafford was drafted outside the top 12, but he is putting up solid QB1 numbers week in and week out. This week should be no exception. Go round up 10 friends, head over to Soldier Field, and ask the Bears if they feel like playing a quick game of football. Then email me the name of whoever you guys choose to be your quarterback, and I’ll put them in this column. Stafford, in particular, destroys the Bears, and apparently gets even better when he plays on the road now? Weird.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Man, what the heck was that last week? When did the Eagles get so good? Why did you hang us out to dry, big guy? Well, I have a feeling Ben makes it up to us this week. The Kansas City defense is legit, but we’ve got all sorts of positive things going Ben’s way. The Chiefs are obviously not as good on the road, they’re coming off a huge win, Le’Veon Bell returns, the Steelers are angry, and we’re on Sunday Night Football. This just reeks of a big-time performance by the Steelers, no?

Kirk Cousins (WAS)
Congratulations, Kirk Cousins, you’ve moved into a more respectable category! I still don’t understand why you make some of the throws that you do, but whatever. There’s fantasy production out there, so we’ll take it. The Browns have allowed at least two touchdowns to each opposing quarterback this year, and there’s no reason why that should end this week. Also, one of those touchdowns is going to Jordan Reed. Book it.

Blake Bortles (JAC)
This game has to be a shootout, right? Right? Bortles has 843 passing yards and five touchdowns this season. Sure, he doesn’t look great doing it, but he always seems to find his way into production. The Colts rank 27th in pass defense, and Bortles should be able to move the ball with ease.

Carson Palmer (ARI)
Goodness gracious, that was an awful performance against the Bills. And the Rams aren’t pushovers. But Palmer has a solid recent history against them (averaging about 350 passing yards per game against them last season), and Jameis Winston did just torch the Rams for over 400 yards passing. Add to that an angry Bruce Arians who needs his offense to get right, and I think Palmer has a solid game here.

The I Can’t Believe These Guys Are Consistent Mentions Here Names

Joe Flacco (BAL)
With the way the quarterback position has gone this year, I feel about as confident in Flacco as I do almost any other non-elite quarterback. You know I love me some East Coast teams playing a 1 o’clock game against a West Coast team (in this case, the Raiders). Plus, unless your name rhymes with Darcus Dariota, you can usually throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders defense. Add to that the total and utter lack of a running game, and Flacco gets the nod.

Derek Carr (OAK)
Well, let’s just stick with this game, I guess. Carr has been pretty awesome this season, leading the Raiders to the second-ranked offense in the league. The Ravens have a great defense, so we’re on a bit of an irresistible force meets an immovable object sort of train here, but I think the offense will win out, at least enough to get Carr into the top 12. Considering that I expect the Ravens to put up points, I think Carr is going to need to throw to keep up.

The What The What Name

Brian Hoyer (CHI)
Yeah, I remember what I said about him, but what do you want? There is no consistency at this position, so why not you, Brian Hoyer? Why not you? Detroit is quietly pretty awful against opposing quarterbacks, allowing at least two passing touchdowns in each game and giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Hoyer looked competent last week, and there’s no reason he should fall flat here. Let’s get nuts.

The Glaring Omission

Russell Wilson (SEA)
Obviously, this is mostly about health. Wilson will undoubtedly take some shots going up against the Jets’ strong front seven, and I just worry he won’t make it through the whole game. Also, I can’t spend that entire game rooting for Wilson to torch my Jets. Conflict of interest.

Week 2: 4-8

Overall Record: 18-18 (50%)

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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @danharris80.