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Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Week 4

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Week 4
LeGarrette Blount

Is it time to sell high on LeGarrette Blount?

Welcome back to our transaction based weekly column where we cover some of the top fantasy names we think you should either target or avoid on your local trading block. Week 3 saw, yet again, elite players stymied, consequential injuries shake lineups and breakout talents…breakout. So, with much to cover, let’s cut the chit-chat and get straight into the prognostications.

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SELL

LeGarrette Blount (RB – NE)

Blount has gotten off to a heck of a start, recording 100 or more yards twice and four touchdowns in his first three weeks. After a dominant Week 3 against Houston, he now ranks first among running backs on the season for total touchdowns (four – tied with three others), rushing yards (298) and attempts (75). Last year he had his moments, but they were few and far between. Most of those performances relied on specific matchups and, on top of that, were still touchdown dependent as he only recorded 100 or more rushing yards once. With Tom Brady playing in every contest last season, the passing game was, as usual, central to coach Bill Belichick’s offense, and as a bruising running back not known for his receiving skills, Blount simply wasn’t a prominent offensive threat. Instead, it was Dion Lewis who looked like the most reliable back in New England – that is, until he tore his ACL in Week 9 and missed the rest of the season.

Lewis is still recovering from that injury after undergoing a second surgery during the off-season, so, while some things haven’t changed, others surely have. Blount and James White are still handling all of the ground work, but this time around, they haven’t had a reliable quarterback at the helm. Not only has Brady been serving his four-game suspension, but backup rookie quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, sustained a shoulder injury towards the end of their Week 2 game against Houston. Because of this shakier than normal passing game, Blount has seen a sizeable increase to his workload, directly correlating to a sizeable increase in his fantasy value. As they say, however, all good things must come to an end. Brady only has one week left until he returns, and any pent up frustrations he may be harboring are sure to be unloaded via weekly aerial assaults. Rob Gronkowski is also going to cut into Blount’s value as the tight end continues to recover from his injury. White should see a boost to his stock (as long as Lewis is out) while Blount’s takes a dip. If you currently have him on your roster, look to see what you can get for him before Brady returns. Other owners should be aware of the situation, but seeing big fantasy numbers can cloud one’s judgment, so a sell high opportunity could be waiting.

Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL)

After a superhuman start to the 2015 season (Weeks 3-6), Freeman eventually “cooled off” and finished the last six weeks of last year’s campaign playing like a top-10 running back (as opposed to the outright No. 1). He started off 2016 a bit cold and it seemed like the off-season doubters may have been onto something as he failed to record a touchdown while barely cracking 100 total yards over the first two weeks. Those detractors assumed an inevitable regression from last year, citing competition from fellow running back Tevin Coleman, superstar receiver Julio Jones and new signee Mohammed Sanu. There was also the fact that three of his top four games last year came against poor rushing defenses while the fourth, against Houston, saw what would have been an average line get a major boost thanks to a fortunate game script leading to three Freeman touchdowns. In fact, during that same four-game stretch, he recorded a total of eight touchdowns, compared to the rest of the season in which he only managed three.

When you take all of the above into account, it’s no surprise Freeman went 14th overall in drafts this year, but, with Week 2’s hindsight, even that top-15 ADP seemed like it could have been a reach. Luckily for owners, however, Freeman managed to break out in Week 3 and post 207 yards from scrimmage to go along with one touchdown. Predicting such a performance, one would assume few opportunities for Coleman, but he somehow still managed to put up a similarly impressive game recording 89 yards from scrimmage on top of three touchdowns. It’s worth noting, though, that this offensive onslaught came against a non-existant New Orleans defense, so try to save at least some of your awe for later, more worthy matchups.

So what does this all mean for Freeman’s fantasy value? Despite the recent resurgence, Atlanta’s star running back will probably continue to struggle with consistency issues. Matt Ryan is currently the No. 1 ranked fantasy player for standard scoring because of a passing game that’s been nearly unstoppable. The Falcons did focus more on the ground game against the Saints, but with a tough schedule ahead, it’s safe to say they’ll shift a good bit of that attention back to the air, making Freeman more touchdown dependent (a troubling prospect with a touchdown buzzard in Coleman constantly hovering). This obviously isn’t a panic-worthy situation because, in the end, Freeman is quite talented, but it does suggest now is a great time to shop him around. If you can get round one or early round two value, consider that a timely sell high opportunity.

HOLD

Marvin Jones (WR – DET)

Depending on your situation, Marvin Jones could fit into any one of these three categories. If you’re trying to acquire the Detroit deep threat now, doing so right after he puts up a career effort may not be the best time, but it never hurts to get a feel for his value in your league. If you can get Jones for WR2 value, by all means, go for it, but if you expect his owner will demand more, hold off and let his Week 3 hype fade a little.

If you’re lucky enough to own Jones, barring a lucrative trade, it makes more sense to hold onto what looks like the real deal and enjoy the extraordinary value you snagged in the draft. Detroit is a pass-happy team, and Matthew Stafford seems to have found himself a new favorite target. Owners should expect many more impressive games to follow and could be looking at a nice keeper option if they happen to play in such leagues.

Lastly, one could make an argument to sell Jones, considering Week 3 will probably end up being the best of his 2016 season. This could be seen as a time to sell high, however, since he appears to have just started a fantasy ascent that could very well end with a top-5 receiver ranking, such a trade carries with it a narrow window of improvement. Most respectable owners won’t go all in after a single strong performance, and out of the few who might, even fewer will invest in a name that has yet to reach household status. If you have him, keep him and start him – if you don’t, check his price, but be prepared to move on.

BUY

Rashad Jennings (RB – NYG)

Drafted by many owners as a mid to late-round running back with major upside, Jennings has had a difficult time getting things going this season. In Week 1 against Dallas, he turned a team-leading 18 rushing attempts into 75 yards but was unable to find the end-zone as all three touchdowns came via the passing game. Generally, it wasn’t much to write home about, but for his owners, that win at Dallas seemed like a promising start. Unfortunately, however, things went downhill from there, and what should have been a favorable matchup against New Orleans, ended up being anything but that for New York’s bell cow. Instead of a heavy dose of Jennings, Shane Vereen ended the game with one more attempt, and, to add insult to injury (or, in this case, the reverse), Jennings finished with an injured hand/thumb that would eventually cause him to miss Week 3.

The slow start and the minor injury both make for a great buy-low opportunity, but they also need some upside to make such a move worth the risk. Had Vereen survived Week 3 unscathed, Jennings’ owners would have had legitimate reasons to worry, but, as luck would have it (cold-hearted luck, sure, but luck nonetheless), the former sustained a season-ending injury, once again making Jennings the Giant’s running back to own. If you have him, keep him, as there aren’t many ways to go but up from here. If, however, you could use some extra depth at running back, Jennings seems to have even more upside now than he did to start the season, so go ahead and make an offer without giving up much more than flex value.

As of writing this piece, the most up to date status for Jennings comes from a Monday tweet by NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport claiming the Giants are “optimistic” about a Week 4 return. Since New York is slated for the Monday Night game against Minnesota, there will be extra time for Jennings to recover, but it’s probably best to play it safe and keep him on your bench. Unless the Giants come out and say Jennings is 100 percent and should see a heavy workload, owners should consider him a flex play at best.

Kelvin Benjamin (WR – CAR)

Last week was an outlier. Any week this season where Kelvin Benjamin sees just a few targets is an outlier, so Week 3, in which he saw just one target and failed to record one single yard of any kind, should hold no weight in serious conversations, that is unless you’re looking to buy.

For Benjamin owners, it’s best to chalk the doughnut up to a freak occurrence and go on about your day. Carolina allowed the Vikings to control the flow of the game and, as a result, were left wishing they’d done things differently. After the game, offensive coordinator Mike Shula lamented those missed opportunities, saying “[Minnesotta] rolled to [Benjamin] at times but they also had some one-on-ones. But just because teams roll to a receiver doesn’t mean you still can’t get it to him. We just weren’t good enough yesterday.” It’s safe to say they won’t make that same mistake, so feel confident that your prized receiver won’t be ignored again.

For the Benjamin-less owners, however, you might as well strike while the zero is hot. The chances of landing him for cheap just because of one awful game may be low, but they’re always worth attempting, as long as that attempt is somewhat respectful. Constantly proposing insulting trades for talented players the day after they have a tough week will only serve to hurt your trade game in the future. Instead, take some time to consider the strengths and weaknesses in your opponent’s lineup and try crafting a multi-player deal that serves to shift some of the focus away from Benjamin and onto other players. Take it from someone who recently landed Julio Jones and Matt Forte for the relatively cheap price of C.J. Anderson, Dwayne Allen and Tajae Sharpe…it can be done.

 


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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.

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