Antonio Brown will continue to dominate targets in Pittsburgh, including those in the red zone

Eric Moody provides the analysis on the league’s top 10 red zone passing offenses.

Did you know DeAndre Hopkins had a red zone target share of 63 percent in 2015? He only scored 11 touchdowns last season. Allen Robinson (25.1 percent) and Brandon Marshall (32.1 percent) scored 14 touchdowns, but they had much lower shares of the red zone targets. Jarvis Landry actually led the NFL in targets inside the five-yard line with eight, but he only scored four touchdowns in 2015. Fantasy owners value wide receivers who score touchdowns. This article will discuss the top 10 red zone passing offenses from last season and provide analysis on what to expect in 2016.

The chart below provides a visual of the top 10 teams in red zone passing attempts inside the 20-yard line. I compared this data with the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings from last season leveraging their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system. This system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. This is the weighted DVOA that is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It provides a better reflection of how a team was playing at the end of the season.

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Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars offense scored 1.85 points per drive and scored a touchdown on 65 percent of their drives that made it to the red zone. Robinson and Allen Hurns combined for 24 receiving touchdowns on 42.6 percent of the red zone targets. The offseason addition of Chris Ivory suggests the Jaguars may want to emphasize the running game. Julius Thomas has also had a full offseason with quarterback Blake Bortles and the Jaguars. It is likely that he will be leveraged more in the red zone. The narrative surrounding Robinson is that he will be impacted by negative regression in the area of receiving touchdowns. I will take a contrarian approach. Robinson only had 142 targets last season and is likely to see more in 2016. He was very efficient with the red zone targets he was given last season. Robinson still has an opportunity to score double-digit touchdowns this season with an increased target volume. He is also entering a contract year and will want to have a sound statistical season in order to land a career-defining payday. Hurns should continue to own an overall target share of anywhere from 18 to 20 percent.

New England Patriots
Julian Edelman (20.3 percent) and Rob Gronkowski (22.9 percent) owned the highest red zone target share percentage in the Patriots offense. This has been the case for the past few seasons. The addition of Martellus Bennett gives the Patriots another weapon to use in the red zone. I expect him to own an overall target share of anywhere from 20 to 23 percent and average six to eight targets per game. Bennett will viable on a week to week basis in the Patriots offense even with a healthy Gronkowski. He has the potential to be a season-changer if Gronkowski misses an extended period of time. The Patriots offense scored 2.34 points per drive and scored a touchdown on 74 percent of their drives that made it to the red zone.

Cleveland Browns
Tight end Gary Barnidge owned a whopping 54.5 percent of the Browns red zone targets in 2015. He parlayed that target share into a nine-touchdown season. The addition of 2016 NFL Draft pick Corey Coleman adds another weapon to the Browns passing attack. The return of Josh Gordon also complicates things for fantasy owners. Robert Griffin III will be the quarterback under center. Browns head coach Hue Jackson’s offenses revolve around the running game. His Bengals teams totaled 959 carries from 2014 to 2015. This bodes well for the Browns running game, but will negatively impact the passing attack.

Green Bay Packers
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to put up a high number of pass attempts inside the 20-yard line. Last season he tied Blake Bortles for the most red zone pass attempts in the NFL. In 2014 Rodgers led the NFL again in red zone pass attempts. This is a trend I do not see reversing in 2016. The return of a healthy Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson bodes well for Rodgers. Both finished as top 10 fantasy wide receivers in 2014 with the Packers offense leading the NFL with 2.63 points per drive.

Washington Redskins
Tight end Jordan Reed owned 24.7 percent of the Redskins red zone targets followed by wide receiver Pierre Garcon with 17.2 percent. A healthy DeSean Jackson should eat into that number in 2016. The Redskins offense revolves around Reed. He is the team’s de facto No. 1 receiver. The suspect running game with Matt Jones will cause Redskins head coach Jay Gruden to lean on the passing game even more.

New York Jets
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker owned 69.3 percent of the Jets red zone targets. This is a trend that will continue in 2016. Running back Matt Forte has never excelled at scoring rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line and I do not envision that changing at this stage of his career. The Jets also released tight end Jace Amaro. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will continue to find creative ways to leverage the talent on the team’s roster.

Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals offensive scheme does not feature any one wide receiver. The red zone target share was spread fairly evenly among Larry Fitzgerald (22.2 percent), Michael Floyd (21 percent), and John Brown (12.3 percent). This will continue in 2016, but Michael Floyd is entering a contract year and has a lot to prove. Can he develop into the future No. 1 wide receiver for the Cardinals? Any one of these wide receivers could go boom any given week. The Cardinals produced 2.37 points per drive in 2015 and scored a touchdown on 68 percent of their drives that made it to the red zone. The offense also produced the third highest number of passing touchdowns (35) in the NFL last season.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints are also an offense that spreads red zone targets to their pass catchers. Brandin Cooks (13.7 percent), Willie Snead (12.3 percent), and Ben Watson (22 percent) all had opportunities to score touchdowns in 2015. Brees has a long history in New Orleans of spreading the target volume amongst his pass catchers. One thing is for certain if you are open Brees will deliver the football to you. This situation will continue in 2016.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Antonio Brown continues to dominate targets for the Steelers. He owned 33.8 percent of the red zone targets in 2015. The suspension of Martavis Bryant clouds the outlook of any Steelers wide receiver not named Brown. He is a lock for 10 to 14 targets per game in 2016. Can another Steelers wide receiver emerge in 2016?

Houston Texans
The Texans passing game revolved around DeAndre Hopkins last season. He owned 63 percent of the red zone targets for the team scoring 11 touchdowns. The Texans selected Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in the 2016 NFL Draft. The team also signed Lamar Miller in free agency. The Texans have had 1,023 rushing attempts over the last two seasons. Miller will receive all the work he can handle and the Texans passing game will continue to be centered on Hopkins. His ceiling may not be higher than what he accomplished last season, but Hopkins still remains an elite WR1.

Conclusion

In fantasy football touchdowns truly do make the world go round. The only wide receiver to finish in the top five that did not score double-digit touchdowns was Julio Jones (8). Doug Baldwin did not have the target volume or receiving yards that Jones had in 2015, but he was able to finish as the seventh best fantasy wide receiver because he scored 14 touchdowns. The previous article provided analysis on the top 10 red zone rushing offenses.

What stood out to you after reading this article? Please leave a comment below or better yet you can follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!