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Top 10 Red Zone Rushing Offenses

Top 10 Red Zone Rushing Offenses
Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman should continue to see a heavy majority of red zone carries in Atlanta

Eric Moody provides the analysis on the league’s top 10 red zone rushing offenses.

Did you know the Chiefs had the fewest rushing attempts (20) inside the 20-yard line last season? The offense was still able to score 1.99 points per drive and did score a touchdown on 64 percent of those drives that made it to the red zone. The ability to score touchdowns is a valuable commodity in fantasy football. There is an adage that money makes the world go round, but in fantasy football many owners covet players who score touchdowns. Nothing is worse than having a running back that is dominating an opposing defense only to have him pulled as the offense approaches the red zone only to have a touchdown scoring opportunity get taken away. This article will discuss the top 10 red zone rushing offenses from last season and provide analysis on what to expect in 2016.

The chart below provides a visual of the top 10 teams in red zone rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. I compared this data with the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings from last season leveraging their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system. This system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. This is the weighted DVOA that is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It provides a better reflection of how a team was playing at the end of the season.

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Rank Team RZ Rushes Inside 20 RZ Rushes Inside 10 RZ Rushes Inside 5 Weighted DVOA Rank
1 Panthers 109 46 26 30.90% 3
2 Bengals 86 46 17 23.10% 5
3 Vikings 74 34 17 12.70% 10
4 Steelers 68 38 22 26.80% 4
5 Buccaneers 68 28 15 -3.10% 18
6 Falcons 65 31 17 -23.10% 30
7 Patriots 65 33 20 13.10% 9
8 Cardinals 64 32 19 16.10% 7
9 Jets 63 28 20 13.80% 8
10 Redskins 63 26 12 7.70% 12

Source: Rotowire

Carolina Panthers
Jonathan Stewart owned 43.1 percent share of the Panthers rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. He only scored six touchdowns last season and never truly maximized his 242 carries. Cam Newton owned a 27.5 percent share of the Panthers rushing attempts and scored 10 touchdowns on the ground. The Panthers offense produced a league-high 2.4 points per drive and scored a touchdown 77 percent of the time they made it inside the 20-yard line. Newton should continue to dominate the red zone carries.

Cincinnati Bengals
Jeremy Hill had a disappointing season, but he still owned a 48.8 percent share of the Bengals rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. He scored as many rushing touchdowns (11) as Adrian Peterson, Devonta Freeman, and DeAngelo Williams. Giovani Bernard owned a 39 percent share of the rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, but he only scored two rushing touchdowns. Hill appears to have returned to form based on his preseason game film. He was a running back I aggressively targeted in fantasy drafts anywhere from the fifth to seventh round. The Bengals scored 2.26 points per drive last season and scored a touchdown 75 percent of the time they made it inside the 20-yard line. Former Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is now the head coach of the Cleveland Browns, but the Bengals offensive coaching staff plan on maintaining many of the principles he put in place.

Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson owned 63.5 percent of the Vikings rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. This is a trend I envision continuing with the team in 2016. Peterson led the NFL in carries (327) last season and could easily top 300 or more in 2016 after the Vikings lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a season-ending injury.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams accounted for 91 percent of the Steelers rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. Both players accounted for 14 rushing touchdowns. The Steelers have demonstrated a tendency to run the football inside the 10-yard line. This explosive offense produced 2.1 points per drive last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers running backs struggled mightily in the red zone last season. Doug Martin and Charles Sims accounted for 85.1 percent of the running back carries inside the 20-yard line yet only scored six rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Jameis Winston, whose rushing ability is underrated, scored six rushing touchdowns last season. Martin benefited from a large workload in 2015, but the Buccaneers coaching staff has hinted at giving more touches to Sims. I do not own any shares of Martin in fantasy leagues this season, but own a high percentage of Sims. Actions speak louder than words.

Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman was a league winner for many fantasy owners who selected him in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts last season. He has been a very good value at the running back position in fantasy drafts this summer. Freeman owned 71 percent of the rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line and reward fantasy owners with 11 rushing touchdowns and three more receiving. Tevin Coleman will act as more of a change of pack running back, but Freeman should continue to maintain a high percentage of the carries while owning the receiving work and goal line carries.

New England Patriots
The Patriots offense is a well-oiled machine. The unit continues to score points on a high percentage of its drives year in and year out. The Patriots produced 2.4 points per drive and scored a touchdown on 74 percent of the possessions that made it to the red zone. LeGarrette Blount owned 50 percent of the red zone carries and scored six touchdowns. The absence of Dion Lewis bodes well for him. Blount will continue to own the goal line carries and is in line to receive anywhere from 16-18 carries per game. He is low-end RB2 with upside who you likely selected late in your fantasy draft.

Arizona Cardinals
Chris Johnson owned 51.6 percent of the Cardinals red zone carries and was the lead running back before an injury thrust David Johnson into the spotlight as the featured back. Johnson will continue to lead the Cardinals running back by committee in 2016. The Cardinals displayed a tendency to run the football inside the five-yard line. The only offensive unit with more points per drive than the Cardinals (2.37) last season was the Panthers (2.40).

New York Jets
Chris Ivory owned 47 percent of the Jets rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line scoring seven touchdowns. He signed a contract with the Jaguars in free agency. The Jets will look to Matt Forte and Bilal Powell to handle the majority of the team’s rushing attempts. Both of these running backs are not known for their rushing efficiency in the red zone. The Jets have leaned more on the passing game in the red zone. The unit had the fourth most passing attempts (36) inside the 10-yard line last season.

Washington Redskins
Matt Jones handled 73 percent of the Redskins rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, but only scored three rushing touchdowns. He averaged 3.4 yards per carry and only had three runs of 20 yards or more. The Redskins leveraged their passing game and not the running game to score touchdowns. The only team with more passing attempts (38) inside the 10-yard line than Redskins were the Jaguars (39). Jones is currently recovering from a sprained left shoulder. This is the type of injury that has the potential to linger.

Conclusion

In fantasy football touchdowns truly do make the world go round. The only running back to finish in the top five that did not score double-digit touchdowns was Doug Martin (six). The companion piece to this article will provide analysis on the top 10 red zone passing offenses.

What stood out to you after reading this article? Please leave a comment below or better yet you can follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!


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