Christine Michael has played well, but he’ll face a tough Jets Defense in Week 4

Every week there have been surprise studs and duds. I doubt I’m the only one who was affected by Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, and Carson Palmer (say goodbye to my perfect season). The point is, it can be difficult to nail a lineup and make every right decision. It isn’t as simple as rolling out the highest ranked players.

As shown by the names listed above, it’s not an exact science, but there probably were some warning signs that I could have been more aware of. In any case, we’re asking our featured experts below to give us insight into players we should be cautious of, while also naming some sleepers that you may want to use instead if you have them.

If you don’t see any of your players listed below, be sure to check out our Who Should I Start? tool. You can also import your team into My Playbook for instant suggestions specific to your players

Q1. Give us a player outside of our top 105 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start.

Hunter Henry (TE – SD)
“Henry is only a rookie playing in his fourth game, but it’s all about opportunity or more specifically, targets. Last week with Antonio Gates sidelined by injury, Henry caught all five of his targets for 72 yards against the Colts. He did lose a fumble, but given that San Diego is already down two of its top wide receivers (Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson), I don’t think one fumble is going to cause Philip Rivers to not look Henry’s way. The matchup against a generous Saints defense also is too tempting to pass up for someone looking for a streaming option or needing a bye week fill-in or to replace an injured player.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

“Hunter Henry is in a tremendous spot without Antonio Gates in the lineup, and if that is the case, Henry is in a great spot to succeed. He showed skill in both the passing and blocking game in Week 3, and other than a late game fumble, he played tremendously. Henry profiles as a receiving tight end, and should be in a great spot against the Saints defense.”
– Russell Clay (Daily Fantasy Cafe)

Ted Ginn (WR – CAR) 
“Perhaps no player personifies the word “upside,” with its implication that lesser heights are more likely to be reached, than Ginn. Still, if you’re going to take a shot, he’s always a play away from a long touchdown — one that he hasn’t had yet, so you could say he’s due — and it’s encouraging that his targets have risen steadily (1-4-7) this season. With Carolina at Atlanta this week, there’s a good chance that the Panthers will have to open things up offensively, while the Falcons’ anemic pass rush should give Cam Newton time to wait for Ginn to blow past coverage.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
“I’m going way off the grid, beyond the top 200… The Chiefs go into Pittsburgh in Week 4, and are likely to have Jamaal Charles inactive, again… and Charcandrick West is not looking good to play either. The Chiefs are heading into their bye week, so they just have to make do this week. Enter rookie WR Tyreek Hill. Hill’s targets have jumped from 1 to 2 to 4 in games this season, which is a positive sign for receiving, but the X-factor play here is his work in the running game. Kansas City is showing more alignments with Hill in the backfield… like the Rams/Tavon Austin approach. Hill is a 4.2+ runner – one of the legit fastest guys in the NFL. If Charcandrick West is inactive (or even if active) – watch for Hill to shock everyone with 7–10 touches this week, and 3–5 of them as running plays – leaping onto the fantasy radars. Give Hill the touches, and he’s going to break a big play. ”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Chris Hogan (WR – NE)
“Look for a big game from Chris Hogan. First of all, he’s facing the Buffalo Bills, so you know he’ll be emotionally charged and looking to show up his former employer. Jimmy Garoppolo should be back under center; he connected with Hogan on a deep route for a TD in Week 1. The Bills have allowed an average of 28 fantasy points to wide receivers thus far, sixth-most in the NFL.”
– Tim McCullough (RotoExperts)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?

Christine Michael (RB – SEA)
“It’s too easy to say Dez Bryant, who seems more likely to sit out several weeks with a knee injury than suit up on Sunday and he hasn’t exactly lit it up this season as it is. So I’ll go with Christine Michael, who has lit it up, at least on a per-carry basis. He has a rough task this week with a Jets defense that is annually among the toughest against RBs. A banged-up Russell Wilson and a weak offensive line won’t help matters.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

“Christine Michael is a below-average NFL running back talent. He’s speedy, and goes as far as an open hole will take him. When there is no hole, Michael crashes to the ground for minimal gains. He needs to be sprung, because he is not a creator at running back. This week, he faces the No. 3 run defense in the NFL – the Jets. They were No. 3 last season as well. When you pit the weak running back skills of Michael against the Jets’ run defense, I’ll take the Jets’ D. If C.J. Prosise is active, I would be even more scared of a Michael fantasy letdown, as CJP steals a few touches in the pass game.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

“Christine Michael looked great last week against the San Francisco 49ers, but he faces a tough Jets front seven this week, and might be in a position to disappoint. Obviously, a lot depends on the health of Russell Wilson, but if Wilson doesn’t go, the defense will be inching up to stop the run quite a bit more than it would otherwise.”
– Russell Clay (Daily Fantasy Cafe)

Matt Forte (RB – NYJ) 
“Dez Bryant, assuming he ends up playing despite a hairline fracture in his knee, is too obvious, so I’ll go with Matt Forte. Even with his monster game against the Bills (100 yards, 3 TDs), Forte is averaging less than four yards per carry and really hasn’t been a huge factor in the passing game. Despite some injury issues on offense, the Seahawks’ defense continues to do what it does best – No. 1 in the league in total defense and giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. And this is after facing Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde, both of which have less tread on their tires compared to Forte.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

Frank Gore (RB – IND) 
“Avoid Gore if you have other options. The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line is just awful at run blocking, and they’re the main reason Gore is averaging just 11.5 fantasy points per game. The Jacksonville Jaguars have only allowed an average of 92 rushing yards per game and 11.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. That’s the fifth-lowest among all NFL teams.”
– Tim McCullough (RotoExperts)

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Thank you to the experts for naming their sleepers and duds. For more advice, listen to our latest podcast below.

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