Eric Decker continues to provide solid value for fantasy football drafters

How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many fantasy owners will use this information to make draft decisions, start/sit decisions, determine which players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. Let’s take a different perspective in evaluating the wide receiver target totals from the 2015 season. The first article in this series focused on wide receivers who had 170 targets or more. The second article focused on wide receivers who were targeted between 140 to 170 times. The third article will focus on wide receivers targeted between 130 to 140 times.

This group of wide receivers represents the third tier. All of these wide receivers had moments throughout the season they rewarded fantasy owners, but my favorite out of this tier is Eric Decker. He was such a value relative to his average draft position heading into the 2015 season. Decker scored 12 touchdowns last season which resulted in a touchdown rate of nine percent despite only having a 23 percent target share. Each week he provided fantasy owners with 50 or more receiving yards or a touchdown. Decker provided fantasy owners with both in nine games last season.

Green’s inconsistent target volume from game to game resulted in him having a boom or bust quality in 2015. He was a week winner when he went boom (scored 34.70 fantasy points in standard formats in week three against the Ravens), but had you scratching your head when he busted (3.60 fantasy points in standard formats in week six against the Bills). Green’s target share of 26 percent in 2015 fell short of the other elite wide receivers many compare to him such as Julio Jones and Antonio Brown who owned a 33 percent target share.

Cooper had his moments last season, but fantasy owners kept asking themselves what is prompting the Raiders coaching staff to keep feeding Michael Crabtree targets? It was the elephant in the room that continued to pour salt in the wound of Cooper’s fantasy owners who cashed in a high draft pick for him. He averaged 8.12 targets per game while Crabtree averaged 9.12.

Sanders continued to be a solid value factoring in his ADP (average draft position), target volume, and statistical production. He was not a huge touchdown scorer (four percent touchdown rate), but he had 8.28 yards per target along with a target share of 24 percent target share.

Hilton only produced two games with 100 or more receiving yards. He only had four games in standard formats with double-digit fantasy points and 17 receptions of 20 yards or more. Hilton did not meet the expectations of fantasy owners in 2015 as the entire Colts offense was in disarray after the erratic play of Andrew Luck prior to his season-ending injury.

Decker benefited from his red zone targets and ran 71.3 percent of his routes lined up from the slot. He was very productive on rub routes and fades last season. Hilton has never had the physical profile of a dominant red zone receiver and his career touchdown totals reflect that. Sanders was not given a high number of red zone targets in 2015, but in 2014 he was targeted 20 times inside the 20-yard line. These numbers are likely a result of Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning’s physical limitations. The biggest surprise is the number of red zone targets for Amari Cooper last season. Crabtree was targeted more inside the 20-yard line (13) and as a result scored more touchdowns (9) than Cooper (6) in 2015. He continues to have a high ADP in fantasy drafts, but can Cooper justify that draft cost with Crabtree still on the Raiders’ roster?

Hilton, Sanders, and Cooper are great examples of how touchdowns can limit a wide receiver’s fantasy production. All three of these wide receivers should continue to play a high number of snaps this season. Hilton’s situation should improve with the return of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. Decker’s situation should not change much at all. He should continue to average eight to nine targets per game in Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s scheme. Sanders may see a decrease in targets this season. He has averaged 8.97 targets in his two seasons in Denver. This could be reduced to six to eight targets per game in 2016. Sanders is a player I am avoiding in fantasy drafts unless he drops two to three rounds outside of his ADP. The loss of Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones bodes well for Green. This could be a season where he sees target volume similar to Julio Jones or Antonio Brown. Green was only targeted on 14 percent of his offensive snaps while Jones was targeted on 22 percent of his in 2015. Can Cooper situation improve in 2016? The Raiders signed Crabtree to an extension this past offseason. Will Cooper receive the target volume in order to elevate his fantasy production? Hope is not a strategy and Cooper continues to be a player to avoid unless he falls two to three rounds outside of his ADP.

Sports Injury Predictor is an excellent site that was built to predict which NFL players are likely to get injured in a season using an algorithm. The site has Decker (44 percent), Green (40 percent), Sanders (42 percent), Cooper (33 percent), and Hilton (39 percent) all classified as medium risks in 2016. Risk and reward are two elements that are critical when building your fantasy football team.

Projection Summary Results via the WR Similarity Score App in PPR formats

The WR Similarity app is a tremendous resource that RotoViz provides which enables you to run projections and view the results of what similar players did after they had a season that was comparable to the subject player. Reviewing the potential range of outcomes is very important when evaluating wide receivers. The chart above displays the potential point outcomes on a weekly basis. The chart below will display an average of comparable seasons from the app.

Average of Comparable Seasons Summary Results via the WR Similarity Score App

The production is eerily similar across the board. It is rare to see Green’s ADP fall outside of the first round. Hilton may not even be the Colts number one wide receiver this season. Donte Moncrief’s breakout could put a ceiling on his production. The Broncos’ offense with Trevor Siemian at quarterback could struggle to consistently support another fantasy wide receiver outside of Demaryius Thomas. Cooper could easily justify his ADP if this type of production on a per game basis came to fruition. Decker continues to be the best value out of this group.

This is a visual of the average depth of target (aDOT) and the fantasy points per opportunity (PPO) for this tier of wide receivers from 2015. These metrics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus. PPO boils down to how productive each wide receiver was with his opportunities. The depth of each one of these player’s targets is important. The player’s ability to generate yards after the catch are critical to fantasy production. This was an area where Hilton excelled (5.6 yards after the catch) and Decker struggled (2.8 yards after the catch). Sanders and Decker took advantage of their opportunities last season.

Conclusion

The third target tier (Hilton, Decker, Sanders, Cooper, and Green) of wide receivers I analyzed in this series had mixed results for fantasy owners. The biggest takeaways I have from this analysis is that Decker is undervalued, Cooper continues to be overvalued, and that 2016 could be the year Green elevates his production to finish as a top-three fantasy wide receiver.

The purpose of this article was to dive deeper into the statistics in order to provide a thorough analysis and a different perspective. The fourth and final article in this series will present the same methodology for the fourth target tier (wide receivers who were targeted between 129 to 120 times) that includes Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Matthews, Golden Tate, Kamar Aiken, Travis Benjamin, and Jeremy Maclin. If you missed part 1 and part 2 of the series click on the links. Does this analysis change your perception on any of these wide receivers? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out on Twitter @EricNMoody.