Allen Robinson received great target volume Week 1, and improved efficiency should be coming
Eric Moody provides his wide receiver target analysis to help fantasy football owners prepare for Week 2.
How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many owners will use this information to make start/sit decisions, determine what players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this column is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. I will also provide projections on the top 20 wide receivers for Week 2.
I have ranked the top 30 fantasy wide receivers by their total number of targets and have broken them down into tiers. Each tier has a visual of a wide receiver’s target share, yards per target, and other statistics. My intent is to provide commentary of certain wide receivers in each tier.
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Tier 1
| Rk | Player | Team | Targets | Target % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | FP |
| 1 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 15 | 38.5 | 6 | 40 | 72 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 7.2 |
| 2 | Jordan Matthews | PHI | 14 | 37.8 | 7 | 50 | 114 | 1 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 17.5 |
| 3 | A.J. Green | CIN | 13 | 43.3 | 12 | 92 | 180 | 1 | 54 | 14 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 12 | 38.7 | 6 | 50 | 91 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 15.1 |
| 5 | TY Hilton | IND | 12 | 26.7 | 6 | 50 | 79 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 7.9 |
| 6 | Cole Beasley | DAL | 12 | 27.9 | 8 | 67 | 65 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Tavon Austin | LA | 12 | 34.3 | 4 | 33 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 |
Source: FantasyData and RotoWire
Robinson represents one of my favorite buy-low candidates heading into Week 2. The target volume was there, but not the efficiency. The fireworks will occur for fantasy owners once the opportunity matches up with the efficiency.
Matthews only caught 50 percent of his targets, but rewarded fantasy owners with 2.5 fantasy points per reception. Many questioned whether he would be on the same page with Wentz after he was named the starting quarterback. This narrative was put to rest after Matthews scored his first touchdown of the season and he and Wentz executed a rehearsed celebration. Matthews is a tremendous value relative to where he was drafted. I am a believer and I recommend to buy low on him if you can.
Green is someone I am championing as a candidate to dethrone Antonio Brown as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in 2016. He had the fourth highest DVOA (55.6%), or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (means a wide receiver with more value per play), according to Football Outsiders.
Benjamin is another great example of a wide receiver where target volume trumps all. He will never be a wide receiver with a high catch rate and that is okay. As a fantasy owner if you accept that you will be a lot happier. Benjamin is a weekly WR2 with WR1 upside due to his touchdown scoring ability. He is shaping up to be another great value in fantasy drafts.
Hilton is one of several wide receiver mouths to feed in the Colts explosive aerial attack with Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. His fantasy production is typically defined by a foundation of one big play and other catches sprinkled around it. Beasley was the safety net of Cowboys rookie quarterback Dak Prescott in a conservative Week 1 game plan. I like him in deeper formats. The Rams offense and Tavon Austin were an abomination on Monday Night Football. This was a noun I have reserved for the Saints defense, but I plan on also using it to describe the Rams offense.
Tier 2
| Rk | Player | Team | Targets | Target % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | FP |
| 8 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 11 | 29.7 | 8 | 73 | 126 | 2 | 29 | 12 | 16 | 24.6 |
| 9 | Will Fuller | HOU | 11 | 31.4 | 5 | 46 | 107 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 21 | 16.7 |
| 10 | Amari Cooper | OAK | 11 | 29.7 | 6 | 55 | 137 | 0 | 43 | 13 | 23 | 15.7 |
| 11 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 11 | 26.8 | 9 | 82 | 92 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 15.2 |
| 12 | Tajae Sharpe | TEN | 11 | 26.8 | 7 | 64 | 76 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 7.6 |
| 13 | Jeremy Kerley | SF | 11 | 31.4 | 7 | 64 | 61 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 6.1 |
| 14 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 10 | 27 | 8 | 80 | 81 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 20.1 |
| 15 | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 10 | 23.3 | 6 | 60 | 102 | 0 | 33 | 10 | 17 | 10.2 |
| 16 | Marvin Jones | DET | 10 | 27 | 4 | 40 | 85 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 21 | 8.5 |
| 17 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 10 | 37 | 7 | 70 | 59 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 5.9 |
| 18 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | 10 | 23.3 | 6 | 60 | 58 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 5.8 |
Brown is like a machine week in and week out. He has averaged 11.68 targets per game over the last two seasons. Fuller set the Texans record for most receiving yards from a rookie in his debut. The target volume and market share were encouraging. Fuller produced 3.34 fantasy points per reception. Cooper’s usage suggests the articles about him playing through plantar fasciitis were legit. He looks like a different player out there and is another solid buy low candidate.
Tyler Lockett received a ton of attention this past offseason in the fantasy football community, but apparently Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson only has eyes for Doug Baldwin. His touchdown rate from last season is likely to see some regression, but this type of target volume can offset it. Many fantasy owners are not buying into Sharpe. All of the signs are there, but in order to be a step ahead of your competition, you cannot simply wait until you have complete confirmation. The Titans coaching staff and players have spoken very highly of Sharpe. This type of usage suggests he is the Titans No. 1 wide receiver. If he happens to be available in your fantasy football league it would be wise to change that.
I recall watching the Monday Night Football game between the 49ers and Rams asking myself: How is Kerley leading the team in targets? He just hitch hiked his way to San Francisco a week and a half ago. 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s strength as a passer is the short to intermediate parts of the field. Kerley played 67 percent of the 49ers offensive snaps and lined up in the slot on 82 percent of his 65 snaps. He is another wide receiver to target in deeper PPR (points-per-reception) leagues.
Fitzgerald has averaged 8.24 targets per game over the last two seasons and owned 22.2 percent of the red zone targets in 2015. He is a weekly WR2 in standard and PPR formats. Jackson is one of my favorite bounce back candidates and is healthy entering the season. He had the 11th highest DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, from Week 1 according to Football Outsiders. This metric boils down a wide receiver with more total value. Jones is the Lions wide receiver to own based on aDOT (depth of target) from Pro Football Focus. He produced an aDOT of 12.6 while Tate produced one of 1.3. This means that Jones’ targets are traveling further down than field.
Landry has averaged 8.72 targets over the last two seasons and continues to dominate target share for the Dolphins. Crowder continues to be criminally undervalued in deeper PPR formats. He averaged 4.88 targets per game in 2015. This bump in target volume is encouraging.
Tier 3
| Rk | Player | Team | Targets | Target % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | FP |
| 19 | Brandin Cooks | NO | 9 | 23.1 | 6 | 67 | 143 | 2 | 98 | 16 | 24 | 27.4 |
| 20 | Willie Snead | NO | 9 | 23.1 | 9 | 100 | 172 | 1 | 49 | 19 | 19 | 23.2 |
| 21 | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 9 | 24.3 | 7 | 78 | 87 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 12 | 10.7 |
| 22 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 9 | 27.3 | 7 | 78 | 103 | 0 | 33 | 11 | 15 | 10.2 |
| 23 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 9 | 27.3 | 6 | 67 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 9.2 |
| 24 | Steve Smith | BAL | 9 | 27.3 | 5 | 56 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 |
| 25 | Mohamed Sanu | ATL | 8 | 21.1 | 5 | 63 | 80 | 1 | 59 | 10 | 16 | 16 |
| 26 | Julio Jones | ATL | 8 | 21.1 | 4 | 50 | 66 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 17 | 12.6 |
| 27 | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 8 | 23.5 | 7 | 88 | 54 | 1 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 12.3 |
| 28 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 8 | 22.9 | 5 | 63 | 54 | 1 | 23 | 7 | 11 | 11.4 |
| 29 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 8 | 28.6 | 4 | 50 | 73 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 18 | 7.3 |
| 30 | Randall Cobb | GB | 8 | 24.2 | 6 | 75 | 57 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 10 | 6.8 |
Snead is the discount version of Cooks. Both players had eerily similar production last season. The one area Cooks had an advantage was in his touchdown rate. Snead was a player I aggressively targeted late in drafts and it paid dividends for me and other fantasy owners who owned him. He had the highest DVOA (81.2 percent) among wide receivers in Week 1.
Crabtree continues to be heavily targeted in the Raiders passing game. He averaged 6.75 targets per game last season. He is not a bad player to consider selling high. His target volume could have been a result of the matchup with the Saints. Diggs moving to the Z wide receiver is paying huge dividends. He is the Vikings No. 1 wide receiver and averaged 6.46 targets per game last season. I could see that number increasing to eight to 10 this season. Diggs is a weekly WR3 with upside. He had the ninth-highest DVOA among (43.3 percent) wide receivers in Week 1.
Nelson continues to soak up targets in the Packers aerial assault. He averaged 9.44 targets per game in 2014. Smith was very ineffective with his targets in Week 1. He had produced a DYAR of -36 which ranked him 72nd among wide receivers. Sanu and Jones had the same number of targets. Jones dealt with a reinjury of his ankle injury during the Week 1 game against the Buccaneers. It appears Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is open to spreading the targets around, but at the end of the day, the X wide receiver is always at the head of the buffet line in his scheme.
Enunwa is here to stay given the fact that the Jets do not have a legitimate tight end on the roster. He is nearly on the WR3 radar and was targeted on 12 percent of his 66 offensive snaps. Hopkins averaged 12 targets per game last season. The addition of running back Lamar Miller and draft pick Will Fuller will impact his workload, but Hopkins should receive enough work to justify his draft position. I would view his 2015 production as his ceiling. Beckham did not have the start to the 2016 season that many of his fantasy owners were expecting. He averaged a target share of 28 percent, 10.68 targets per game, and a touchdown rate of 8.5 percent his first two seasons. Beckham is in line for a monster game against the Saints for the Giants home opener.
Tier 1 – Red Zone Targets
| Rk | Player Name | Team | Inside The 20 | Inside The 10 | Inside The 5 | Team % |
| 1 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Jordan Matthews | PHI | 4 | 3 | 3 | 66.7 |
| 3 | A.J. Green | CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 42.9 |
| 4 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| 5 | TY Hilton | IND | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 | Cole Beasley | DAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Tavon Austin | LA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Robinson (64), Matthews (67), and Green (64) will all be very productive in the red zone and have a relatively high Freak Score according to RotoViz. A Freak Score is a simple way to describe succinctly the mix of size and speed that a WR has. The result is a scaled number (0-100) that has a rough fitting relationship with a player’s potential to score touchdowns in the NFL. Robinson, Matthews, and Green have all demonstrated success scoring touchdowns in recent seasons.
Tier 2 – Red Zone Targets
| Rk | Player Name | Team | Inside The 20 | Inside The 10 | Inside The 5 | Team % |
| 8 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Will Fuller | HOU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 |
| 10 | Amari Cooper | OAK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
| 12 | Tajae Sharpe | TEN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 13 | Jeremy Kerley | SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 3 | 2 | 2 | 37.5 |
| 15 | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 16 | Marvin Jones | DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 18 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | 4 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 |
Baldwin (14 percent) and Fitzgerald (6 percent) were heavily targeted in the red zone in Week 1 and were proficient touchdown scorers in 2015. Both receivers run a high percentage of their routes from the slot. Crowder’s red zone targets were surprising, but I wonder once 2016 draft selection Josh Doctson is brought up to speed what effect will it have on him.
Tier 3 – Red Zone Targets
| Rk | Player Name | Team | Inside The 20 | Inside The 10 | Inside The 5 | Team % |
| 19 | Brandin Cooks | NO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 42.9 |
| 20 | Willie Snead | NO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 21 | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 3 | 2 | 0 | 50 |
| 24 | Steve Smith | BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | Mohamed Sanu | ATL | 3 | 2 | 2 | 33.3 |
| 26 | Julio Jones | ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 28 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 29 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Randall Cobb | GB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 33.3 |
Nelson, Cobb, and Cooks were heavily used in the red zone. All three wide receivers are catching passes from elite quarterbacks which make them more attractive to fantasy football owners. Sanu’s red zone usage surprise, but it could have been a result of Jones’ ankle injury.
WR Fantasy Points Allowed
| Rank | Team | WR Points Allowed |
| 1 | Raiders | 56.4 |
| 2 | Redskins | 42.1 |
| 3 | Jets | 35.4 |
| 4 | Saints | 34.3 |
| 5 | Bills | 32.4 |
| 6 | Browns | 30.6 |
Up above is a visual of the top-six defenses ranked in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This section of the weekly column will provide you with the top six defenses to target for wide receiver production. These statistics are from Week 1, but it appears the Jets and Bills will be likely rising on the list based on the wide receiver production from Thursday Night Football.
Week 2 Projections
There are numerous statistics and metrics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. It is easy to get overwhelmed and drown in all of it. It is critical to have an operating system to process and manage it all. My methodology revolves around what I like to refer to playing the piano with both hands. You can make music only playing with one hand, but when you use both that is when things really come together. The narrative based information carries weight, but not as much as snap counts, targets, routes run, or red zone usage. When you pair all of those things together in your process it really gives you clarity. That is an approach to take with projections. It allows you to take a firm stance on the range of outcomes for different players. Here is a visual of my Week 2 projections for the top-25 wide receivers ranked by number of targets:
| Rank | Player | Targets | Pct | Yds | TD |
| 1 | Antonio Brown | 13.5 | 62.5 | 101.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | 12.2 | 57.5 | 68.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham | 11.7 | 65.6 | 102.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | Julio Jones | 10.8 | 61.6 | 103.2 | 0.7 |
| 5 | DeAndre Hopkins | 10.4 | 60.4 | 85.2 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Jordan Matthews | 10.1 | 59.8 | 72.1 | 0.4 |
| 7 | Jordy Nelson | 9.9 | 60.9 | 72.9 | 0.5 |
| 8 | Golden Tate | 9.5 | 66.7 | 50.4 | 0.4 |
| 9 | Brandon Marshall | 9.1 | 55.8 | 70.8 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Allen Robinson | 9 | 57.4 | 79.6 | 0.5 |
| 11 | Julian Edelman | 8.9 | 67.1 | 63.2 | 0.4 |
| 12 | A.J. Green | 8.9 | 68.5 | 93.9 | 0.6 |
| 13 | Randall Cobb | 8.6 | 57.9 | 61.7 | 0.4 |
| 14 | Kelvin Benjamin | 8.3 | 61.1 | 70.1 | 0.7 |
| 15 | Marvin Jones | 8.3 | 63 | 68.3 | 0.4 |
| 16 | Jeremy Maclin | 8.1 | 64.2 | 64.8 | 0.4 |
| 17 | Doug Baldwin | 8.1 | 62.9 | 64.7 | 0.6 |
| 18 | Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 62.4 | 78.1 | 0.7 |
| 19 | Brandin Cooks | 7.7 | 75.1 | 73.8 | 0.5 |
| 20 | Michael Crabtree | 7.5 | 62.3 | 53.5 | 0.5 |
| 21 | Mohamed Sanu | 7.4 | 50.5 | 55.7 | 0.3 |
| 22 | Larry Fitzgerald | 7.3 | 75.8 | 69.6 | 0.6 |
| 23 | Mike Evans | 7.3 | 63.4 | 77.5 | 0.7 |
| 24 | Amari Cooper | 7.1 | 73.2 | 79.6 | 0.6 |
| 25 | Stefon Diggs | 7 | 50.9 | 57.2 | 0.4 |
Conclusion
Eighteen wide receivers had double-digit targets in Week 1. Green was the only wide receiver with double-digit receptions. Twenty-eight wide receivers had double-digits fantasy points in standard scoring formats. Wide receiver production matters in fantasy football. This will be a weekly column at FantasyPros. What stood out to you the most regarding the wide receiver production? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me and follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody. I am very active, engaged with my followers, and happy to provide feedback to put you in a position to win your fantasy football league. Until next time!
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