Jamison Crowder is due for plenty more targets in Week 4

How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many owners will use this information to make start/sit decisions, determine what players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this column is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. I will also provide projections on the top 20 wide receivers for Week 4.

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I have ranked the top 32 fantasy wide receivers by their total number of targets and have broken them down into tiers. Each tier has a visual of a wide receiver’s target share, yards per target, and other statistics. My intent is to provide commentary of certain wide receivers in each tier.

Tier 1

Brown has been targeted 40 times through three games and owns a target share of 33.9 percent with the Steelers along with an aDOT (depth of target) of 10.6 yards according to Pro Football Focus. He remains an elite WR1. Pryor catapulted himself on the fantasy radar in Week 3 displaying the ability to impact the game as a quarterback, wide receiver, and rusher. He has played 92 percent of the offensive snaps through three games and has accumulated 31 targets. The unfortunate news surrounding Josh Gordon has solidified his fantasy value as a WR2 until Corey Coleman returns. White has been targeted 27 times through three games, but has only caught 52 percent of them. This is not the efficiency great fantasy wide receiver seasons are made of.

Tier 2

Sanders has been targeted 29 times through three games and has built a target share of 30.9 percent along with an aDOT (depth of target) of 8.7 yards. He continues to be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside any given week. Evans is being targeted like an elite WR1 with 37 targets through three games with a 27.4 percent target share. He is a top-three fantasy wide receiver through three weeks. Landry continues to soak up targets and has accumulated 31 through three games. He remains a great high-end WR2 in PPR formats and a low-end WR2 in standard formats. Humphries continues to emerge as a second receiving option in Tampa Bay. His 24 targets through three games have not translated into fantasy production, but Humphries has not received any targets in the red zone and remains a wide receiver worth monitoring. Fitzgerald continues to operate as efficiently as a machine in that offense and remains the most reliable Cardinals receiver for fantasy purposes. He has accumulated 30 targets with a 26.4 percent target share through three games with a 9.6 aDOT and remains an excellent WR2.

Tier 3

Hilton has accumulated 29 targets through three games with an aDOT of 12.8 yards. He reminded fantasy owners in Week 3 that he should never be on your bench. We finally were given a definitive Robinson stat line in Week 3. The Jaguars offense continues to struggle due to Blake Bortles‘ regression and lack of a running game. Robinson can still provide low-end WR1 value this season and his 28 targets through three games supports that. Thomas took advantage of a Falcons defense that schemed to take away the Saints outside receivers and left the middle of the field open to him and tight end, Coby Fleener. It will be a challenge for Thomas to find consistent fantasy value in the Saints offense on a week to week basis without an injury. I view him as a WR4 with upside.

Beckham rewarded fantasy owners with a nice stat line, but we are still waiting for the touchdowns to come. He has been targeted 29 times through three games, owns a 28 percent target share, and remains an elite WR1 each and every week. Crabtree continues to soak up targets (24 through three games for a target share of 21.4 percent) and be a thorn in the side of Amari Cooper‘s fantasy owners. He remains a WR3 in fantasy. Smith continues to defy father time and has been targeted 24 times through three games and owns a target share of 22 percent. Green has been targeted 31 times through three games and owns a target share of 30.8 percent. He remains an elite WR1 and is a candidate to finish as the number one fantasy wide receiver in 2016.

Brown and Floyd’s target volume and snaps played continue to be up and down. It is difficult to trust any other Cardinals wide receiver out of Fitzgerald. Floyd can be viewed as a low-end WR3 and Brown as a high-end WR4. Enunwa has accumulated 25 targets through three games and owns a 21.7 percent target share. He can be viewed as a low-end WR3 in a Jets offense that loves to throw the football and lacks a legitimate tight end. It remains to be seen if the recently signed Austin Seferian-Jenkins will impact his target volume.

Tier 4

Baldwin continues to produce as a WR1 for fantasy owners and ignores the narrative that negative regression was coming his way in 2016. He has accumulated 25 targets through three games and owns a 25.7 percent target share with an aDOT of 8.9 yards. Marshall has been hampered by a knee injury, but surprisingly played a high number of snaps in Week 3. He has 27 targets through three weeks and owns a target share of 23.5 percent. Marshall remains a weekly low-end WR1, but can be viewed as a WR2 in a challenging matchup against the Seahawks secondary in Week 4. Williams can be viewed as a WR3 for fantasy owners. Travis Benjamin is the number one wide receiver in San Diego, but Williams can provide WR2 upside in certain matchups. This week’s matchup against the Saints is one such opportunity. Cooper has yet to score a touchdown this season and only has four more targets than Crabtree through Week 3.

Tier 5

Jones has accumulated 29 targets through three games with a target share of 25 percent and has an aDOT of 14.2 yards. He is the number one fantasy wide receiver through Week3. Austin’s fantasy production will be up and down due to the Rams offense. He has 27 targets through three games. Jackson can be viewed as a WR3 and has accumulated 19 targets through three games. Jamison Crowder is actually leading all Redskins wide receivers in targets with 23. Coleman’s target volume was a result of Willie Snead‘s absence. Stills has only produced 16 targets through three games. He can be viewed as a WR4.

Hopkins has been given 27 targets through three games and owns a 25 percent target share. He remains a mid-range WR1 week in and week out. Woods target volume will fluctuate based on the health of Sammy Watkins. The inefficiency of the Jaguars offense has negatively impacted Hurns. He has received 21 targets through three games. Matthews only has 18 targets through three games resulting in a target share of 16.8 percent. This is not what many expected after he signed with the Titans in free agency earlier this year. Cooks only has 23 targets through three games and owns a target of only 19 percent. This is a sobering reminder that the Saints offense prefers to spread the targets around. The fantasy owners who faded Cooks and drafted Snead late in fantasy drafts are still smiling ear to ear.

Red Zone Targets

I would like to share a few observations based on the red zone targets from Week 3. Sanders’ production relative to his draft position continues to add to the narrative that he is a tremendous value. It remains to be seen if this usage will continue, but fantasy owners who have started him as a WR3 are satisfied. Nelson continues to separate himself from the other Packers wide receivers. Randall Cobb‘s face continues to be imprinted along with his height and weight on the side of a milk carton. Baldwin continues to be Russell Wilson‘s preferred target in the red zone. Crowder continues to fill the void in the red zone that many anticipated rookie Josh Doctson to have. Bigger fantasy days are coming for Beckham. If Evans’ overall target share continues he has an opportunity to finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver. The Buccaneers fantasy playoff schedule that includes two matchups against the Saints in weeks 14 to 16 is what championships are made of. Imagine the possibilities of stacking Evans and Winston.

WR Points Allowed

These statistics are through Week 3. All of these defenses are great targets when evaluating which players to start from your core of wide receivers. My favorite defenses to pick on are the Raiders, Browns, Buccaneers, Lions, Jets, and Saints. Leverage this data and plan accordingly.

Week 4 Projections

There are numerous statistics and metrics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. It is easy to get overwhelmed and drown in all of it. It is critical to have an operating system to process and manage it all. My methodology revolves around what I like to refer to playing the piano with both hands. You can make music only playing with one hand, but when you use both that is when things really come together. The narrative based information carries weight, but not as much as snap counts, targets, routes run, or red zone usage. When you pair all of those things together in your process it really gives you clarity. That is an approach to take with projections. It allows you to take a firm stance on the range of outcomes for different players. Here is a visual of my Week 4 projections for the top-20 wide receivers ranked by number of targets:

Conclusion

Twenty wide receivers had double-digit targets in Week 3. Browns and Evans were the only wide receivers with double-digit receptions. Twenty-two wide receivers had double-digits fantasy points in standard scoring formats. Wide receiver production matters in fantasy football. What stood out to you the most regarding the wide receiver production? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me and follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody. I am very active, engaged with my followers, and happy to provide feedback to put you in a position to win your fantasy football league. Fantasy football never sleeps and neither do I. Until next time!

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