Can Allen Robinson and the Jaguars break out against the Raiders?
Welcome back to another edition of “Analyzing Vegas Odds.” The last few weeks have worked out somewhat well, and we will look to build on that this week. Honestly, this is my favorite week thus far, and I’m going to go pretty heavy with the games listed below. I’m going to break from what I usually do, and I’m not going to cover the New Orleans/Kansas City game, but I love me some Spencer Ware this week. Here are my four favorite games this week.
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Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Total: 47.5; Spread: -1.5 Jacksonville
This is probably my favorite game on the slate, and I’m hoping it goes somewhat overlooked, but I highly doubt it. This features two bad defenses, and two somewhat struggling offenses. I do expect that to come to a crashing halt this week, and I believe we will see fireworks here.
One of my top receiver targets this week is going to be Amari Cooper, who I think will continue to be fed in this one. I think it is reasonable that he should have the opportunity to exceed 100 yards, and the possibility of touchdowns looms on the horizon. Michael Crabtree could also be used in this situation, but this Jags defense is beat up enough that I think Cooper should be able to have his way with them. I think Derek Carr is in play here, though I will admit that I like quite a few quarterbacks more than him. The running game is off the table for me here, and I think that the return of Latavius Murray would only make things more complicated. I would stick to the three players I mentioned, with Cooper being the only guy I would roll with in cash games.
Jacksonville has really yet to get rolling, despite the fact that they’ve picked up a few wins on the year. Blake Bortles has not been able to replicate the magic of last year, but I think he is worth a look in tournaments, as this Raiders defense is really, really bad. Allen Robinson has basically one good game under his belt, but we know that he is capable of so much more, which makes him another high-end tournament option this weekend. Outside of those two, I’m admittedly vexed. Allen Hurns popped up on the injury report this week, and he would have been an adequate tournament option as the number two in this offense who can pop off for some big games. If he were to miss, I’d give some additional consideration to both Julius Thomas and Marqise Lee, who could both see a few extra targets and at their prices could end up posting decent scores.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans – Total: 48 ; Spread: -3 Tennessee
This division games has a ton of fantasy potential in it from multiple perspectives. Both of these teams have seemingly isolated options that really makes things a bit easier to decipher, as opposed to some teams, like the Saints, with so many options that it can be difficult to figure out what the game flow should look like.
The Colts are having a very difficult time keeping Andrew Luck on his feet. This is something we expected this year, as the Colts didn’t really do much to improve their offensive line. If they are able to keep him vertical, T.Y. Hilton is his top option, and he’s a target monster. This sets up well… until Hilton showed up on the injury report late this week. My gut reaction is that it was rest related, but it is noteworthy regardless. The other option I would look at in this offense would be Jack Doyle, who should see more attention with Dwayne Allen presumably out for the week. This isn’t a situation where I like Frank Gore, and if Hilton is out, the receivers behind him are far less talented and make it too difficult to discern.
The Titans have picked up their play offensively over the last few weeks. The main culprit has been DeMarco Murray, who finally got slowed down last week. I don’t see that happening two weeks in a row, especially against a really soft Colts defense. He should be a top play in any format this week. Marcus Mariota has also been improving, so we want to consider him here. Delanie Walker has not been great this year, and quite frankly, I would just look for better options, which there are, at the position this week. Kendall Wright blew up last week, but I am not expecting him to repeat his performance. Still, I guess you could do worse as a punt tournament option. Finally, the Colts have been giving up sacks a lot this year, and the defense makes a nice play with a pretty safe floor in this game.
San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons – Total: 53.5 ; Spread: -6.5 Atlanta
These two offenses have been very potent this year, which results in this game having the highest total on the slate. There are a lot of options here that should be in your lineups, as they are highly likely to produce good results.
The Chargers haven’t been able to close a lot this year, but they are still a very exciting offense that continues to produce. Melvin Gordon had his first poor fantasy performance in 2016, but this is an excellent bounce-back spot for him, and he should still continue to see all the work he can handle out of the backfield. Philip Rivers is always a threat to go over 300 yards with a few touchdowns, so he is another guy I think you can look to in either format. His receiving options aren’t the most exciting, but there is some potential there. Travis Benjamin is always a threat to stretch the field and produce big gains, but he as well is dealing with injuries this week. Tyrell Williams is actually the receiver I prefer, as he is big, quick, and knows how to use his power to pick up extra yardage. I like him with Benjamin, but I really love him if for some reason Benjamin can’t go. Finally, Hunter Henry is a top tight end in the league, and the return of Antonio Gates should only help to solidify that.
The Atlanta Falcons have been a very fun team to watch, and it all stems from the performance of Matt Ryan. He has been a breath of fresh air this year, as many had lost hope in him. Julio Jones is firmly in play here, and he should be on your radar for either format. Do I think he’s in position to be the top receiver this week? No. Do I see him finishing out of the top 10? No. He is your safety net, and quite frankly, it is very simple to build a quality lineup with him due to all the value this week. We’ve seen Jacob Tamme fall off a bit, and I’m fine with looking elsewhere. I really like Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman this week. I think I’d give Freeman the advantage, as the Charges have been awful against pass-catching backs, and I really think that is where he will excel. Yes, Coleman may have one more target, but Freeman has far more carries. He’s one of my top running backs for the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers – Total: 46.5; Spread: -1.5 Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay will be coming off of their bye week, presumably well rested, and they will be taking on a Niners team that is going to be without their starting running back. On the surface, this looks to be a bad situation, but I disagree. I think there is a lot to like on both sides of the ball, and I’ll have plenty of exposure to them this week.
Jameis Winston hasn’t been great this year, but he is still capable of big fantasy games, and I’m going to go out on a limb and say that is what we will see here. I think everyone is under estimating the Niners here, which has led to a lot of buzz for Jacquizz Rodgers who will be filling in for the injured Doug Martin. Everyone is pumped about his monster game against the Panthers prior to their bye, but his results prior to that are rather bleak. I think the Niners will either stay in this, or dare I say, go ahead, and force Winston to pass. When he does, those targets are going to go to Mike Evans, who I project with targets in the middle teens, and as my top overall receiver on the week. With Vincent Jackson on IR, that leaves Evans as the only trustworthy receiver. Adam Humphries is not on my radar, but I think there is some merit to Cameron Brate, who may end up seeing some time at wide receiver.
The Niners have been pretty poor this year on all sides of the ball, but I really do think that Colin Kaepernick will be a shot in the arm – at least for this game. Everything lines up well for him: he’s getting his first home start, he’s going against a bad defense and his top running back is out. I don’t think that Mike Davis and Shaun Draughn are going to pick up the slack, so I think we’ll see Kaep move the ball on his feet, and connect with his favorite target, Torrey Smith. He is one of my top receivers on the week, and he is way too cheap across the industry. Jeremy Kerley should still get looks, but I do think that Kaep being back does hurt him some. Those three options in the passing game are what I would be looking at, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kaep connect with Smith for a touchdown or two.
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Nicholas Volinchak is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicholas, follow him @researchandwin. You can find more of Nicholas’ football work at Research Fantasy.
