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Bold Predictions for Week 5

Bold Predictions for Week 5
With Tom Brady back in action, this may be the week james White (pictured) may finally get some action

With Tom Brady back in action, this may be the week James White (pictured) may finally get some action

Picking Matt Ryan to be a bottom-10 QB in Week 4? It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it worked out for him.

Um, no. No, it did not. Too much credit given to the Panthers’ defense, too little credit given to Ryan and that Julio Jones guy.

But, thanks to Brian Hoyer finishing seventh among QBs last week, it’s all good. We’ve maintained our patented 1-for-5 rate of nailing these bold predictions, which translates to 20% accuracy (note – those quick math skills don’t happen by accident, folks. I’m available as a math tutor on request).

Considering that the average bold prediction accuracy rate is a mere 4%, I’d say we’re doing pretty well. So, let’s keep it going this week.

Also, to be clear, I have no idea what the accuracy rate on bold predictions is or how you’d measure it across the fantasy football universe anyway. But, I didn’t have to come clean right there, so I feel like I deserve some credit, right? Maybe?

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1) Derek Anderson is a top-10 QB (26th in ECR)

Cam Newton is still in the concussion protocol and does have an extra day to recover this week, but it’s not looking great for him to play in this one. Also, fate has decreed that Anderson shall only get starts against the Bucs (both of his last two starts have come against them), so I’m thinking he’ll find his way to being the starting QB on Monday. If so, I’m a buyer.

The Bucs are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and without Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers just entirely lack any semblance of a running game. At home on Monday Night Football, I could see Anderson having a big day here.

Note: If Newton plays, I’m not being held to this, obviously. Unless I nail only one of the remaining four picks, in which case I will count this as a failed prediction to keep my stellar 20% accuracy rate intact.

2) James White is a top-15 RB (32nd in ECR)

White has been a pretty big bust so far this year, after getting the unexpected opportunity to be the Patriots’ pass-catching back when Dion Lewis went down with an injury. But, as you might expect, Tom Brady is going to significantly change how the Patriots’ offense operates. In 2015 with Brady at the helm, White averaged 7.5 yards per touch, and he averaged almost six touches per game last year when Lewis was hurt.

He also averaged four catches on about 5.5 targets per game. What do all those numbers mean? Well, basically, with Lewis out and Brady running the show, White gets involved and is productive when he does.

With Brady likely to show a little rust and Rob Gronkowski far from fully healthy, White should be plenty involved in the passing game in this one. If he can find the end zone, he should make this prediction a reality.

3) Bilal Powell is a top-15 RB (33rd in ECR)

I feel like giving Matt Forte 7,000 touches in the Jets’ first two games was a mistake, no? Forte is already battling knee and rib injuries, and Powell’s snap count has risen from 23% to 52% over the last few weeks, and it should continue to climb this week. With Eric Decker out and Quincy Enunwa being questionable, the Jets are going to need to find someone to throw the ball to, especially when they fall behind by a few touchdowns as most people predict.

I’d expect Powell to get significant action in the passing game and, at the very least, find his way to around 15 touches somehow. Against a Pittsburgh team that gives up its share of fantasy points to running backs (seventh-most in the league), I think Powell has a big game here.

4) Tajae Sharpe is a top-20 WR (44th in ECR)

Man, I so desperately want this kid to be good. He’s trending in the wrong direction, but I still think there’s a big game coming, especially since he’s still getting eight targets per game.

If you watched A.J. Green work some magic last Thursday, you know that the Dolphins are awful against wideouts, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. I think Sharpe gets a score and some decent yards in this puppy.

5) Richard Rodgers is a top-seven TE (18th in ECR)

I’m annoyed that I bought into Jared Cook this year. Ridiculous. Rodgers actually finished as the number nine tight end last year in standard leagues, so he and Aaron Rodgers have some chemistry (Seriously, Richard Rodgers, you couldn’t have picked a different last name or team to make it easier for me to write this?).

With Cook out, Rodgers should play almost all the snaps, and he will certainly become one of the biggest red zone targets. The Giants have allowed only one touchdown to tight ends this season, but this is Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. At home. On Sunday Night Football. It should be a big game for Rodgers. And Rodgers.

Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @danharris80

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