Why is Cameron Brate the most undervalued tight end?
Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 7.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.
In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 7 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.
Before getting into my week 7 picks, let’s take a moment and see how I did against the experts in week 6. These results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders. Since there’s no way to predict injuries I don’t count those as wins or losses when looking at the results from last week.
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Overvalued
- Andrew Luck (QB – IND) ECR: 8th – Finished: 16th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Todd Gurley (RB – LA) ECR: 7th – Finished: 20th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Mike Wallace (WR – BAL) ECR: 35th – Finished: 21st – Winner: ECR
- Martellus Bennett (TE – NE) ECR: 6th – Finished: 17th – Winner: FantasyTruth
Undervalued
- Ryan Tannehill (QB – MIA) ECR: 24th – Finished: 25th – Winner: ECR
- Bilal Powell (RB – NYJ) ECR: 34th – Finished: 52nd – Winner: ECR
- John Brown (WR – ARI) ECR: 25th – Finished: 53rd – Winner: ECR
- Gary Barnidge (TE – CLE) ECR: 13th – Finished: 15th – Winner: ECR
The ECR came out ahead this week, sweeping the players that I thought were undervalued heading into week 6.
Overvalued
Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN) ECR: 9th
Why the experts like him
Mariota has been the best quarterback in fantasy over the last two weeks, which feels strange to say. The results speak for themselves as he has seven touchdowns in those games and 124 rushing yards to help boost his production. This week he is matched up against the struggling Colts secondary.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Prior to the last two games, Mariota was on track for a very mediocre season. This includes a four point fantasy performance against Oakland, who has been awful against fantasy quarterbacks. I’m simply not buying this two game surge and think that Mariota will fall back to his previous production levels.
Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA) ECR: 22nd
Why the experts like him
Ajayi may have established himself as the lead back in Miami last week with a 200-yard performance. Arian Foster appeared to be a non-factor which makes Ajayi the clear back to own here. If he approaches the 25 touches he received last week it would guarantee a baseline of production.
Why I think he’s overvalued
I think people are being hasty in declaring Ajayi an RB2 all of a sudden. His performance last week was amazing but this is a player that has struggled to gain traction all season long. You also have to believe that Arian Foster will play more of a role going forward as last week’s game was his first back from an extended absence. I’m significantly below the ECR on this one, ranking Ajayi as a low-end flex play.
Golden Tate (WR – DET) ECR: 29th
Why the experts like him
Golden Tate was clearly a big part of the game plan in week 6, with 8 catches for 165 yards. Tate won’t be drawing much coverage from Josh Norman this week which makes his matchup against Washington an attractive one.
Why I think he’s overvalued
One good game doesn’t erase the previous five where Tate has been unusable for fantasy purposes. Marvin Jones is clearly Stafford’s favorite target and that won’t be changing anytime soon. As much as I liked Tate heading into the season, he’s nothing more than a low floor WR3.
Martellus Bennett (TE – NE) ECR: 6th
Why the experts like him
Bennett has huge upside as a pass-catching tight end in the Patriots offense. Only two weeks ago he had a massive three touchdown game against the Cleveland Browns. Even with Rob Gronkowski on the field, it seems that Bennett will be part of the game plan.
Why I think he’s overvalued
I believe that last week was the first time we saw Bennett on the field with a fully healthy Gronkowski, and the results may be indicative of the rest of the season. Bennett will have his boom games due to his red zone production but there aren’t enough targets to keep him in the every-week TE1 discussion.
Undervalued
Alex Smith (QB – KC) ECR: 15th
Why the experts dislike him
Even with a nice matchup last week, Alex Smith failed to put up a good fantasy performance. The Chiefs are a run oriented team with Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles in the backfield, which leaves little opportunity for Smith to take shots downfield.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Despite the poor fantasy numbers, Alex Smith didn’t perform horribly last week. He completed a ridiculous 86.4% of his passes for 224 yards. This week he’s at home against an even worse defense and should be able to find the end zone multiple times, which is something the last three quarterbacks to play the Saints have done.
Giovani Bernard (RB – CIN) ECR: 20th
Why the experts dislike him
Bernard has long been stuck in a committee with Jeremy Hill, who has absorbed most of the early down and goal line work. In that situation, Bernard has been tough to trust in standard leagues due to his reliance on short receptions to produce results. Even with an increased workload, some people are concerned that he won’t get the volume to produce big numbers.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Bernard out-touched Jeremy Hill for the second week in a row last week and I believe that trend will continue going forward. You can’t ask for a much better matchup than a Browns team that is struggling in every facet of the game. Bernard even received the goal line looks last week which gives him massive upside if that continues.
Julian Edelman (WR – NE) ECR: 25th
Why the experts dislike him
Everyone thought that Edelman would start putting up huge reception and yardage totals when Brady returned from his suspension. It’s been two games now and that still hasn’t happened as he has a combined 65 yards during that time. The Patriots offense is clicking without him which causes some to worry that he won’t be a major factor going forward.
Why I think he’s undervalued
The biggest thing I look for in a bounce back candidate is targets, which is something that Edelman hasn’t lacked. I’m anticipating a return to form in week 7 and wouldn’t be surprised to see him top 100 yards and a score.
Cameron Brate (TE – TB) ECR: 14th
Why the experts dislike him
Brate was starting to look like a viable tight end play until be put up a dud against the Panthers in week 5. With Mike Evans soaking up all of the targets in Tampa Bay there hasn’t been a lot of fantasy relevance to go around. Until Brate shows that he can be a consistent factor many people are going to be scared to roll him out.
Why I think he’s undervalued
I believe that week five was an anomaly as Brate had five receptions each of the previous two games and three receptions in each of the two games before that. Those aren’t exactly high-end numbers, but now that Vincent Jackson has been placed on IR there are more targets to go around in Tampa Bay. This week’s matchup against the 49ers will allow Brate to produce at TE1 levels.
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