Should you avoid LeSean McCoy this weekend?

Week 6 was the best yet for my FanDuel fades article. While I missed on a few guys, most of my fades well underperformed their salary. I also nailed two players who posted monster stat lines! Antonio Brown, my top WR fade, only had 5.9 fantasy points. DeMarco Murray had zero receptions and only 12.5 fantasy points. Aaron Rodgers lost to the Dallas Cowboys at home where he is supposed to be unbeatable. He also threw an interception. The Steelers defense made Jay Ajayi look like a young Arian Foster giving up 30 real life points to the sputtering Dolphins offense. Odell Beckham Jr, who everyone just left for dead, put up 36 fantasy points and over 200 yards receiving! He was my alternate wide receiver play. Lamar Miller finally scored and did so once on the ground and once through the air. He was my alternate running back play and up to that point hadn’t scored a single touchdown!

I do my best to give you reasonings to fade the field on a weekly basis. Why? Because the rewards far outweigh the risk. Monster wins are waiting in the wings for you if you can commit to fading on a regular basis. There isn’t one thing that is set in stone that works every week. In fact, you will be wrong quite a bit. Your ego and self-confidence can take massive hits for multiple weeks in a row.

Remember, you are targeting low percentage plays that are counterintuitive to what is considered common knowledge. At this point, I would hope I at the very least opened your eyes to some high risk but high reward plays. The consistent theme of my articles is that there is a lot that can go wrong in the NFL. That gray area, as I call it, is where we find the players to fade. The Steelers looked unstoppable against the Dolphins on paper. Once Big Ben was injured and the Dolphins smelled blood, it changed the entire tone of the Steelers offense. As long as you keep an open mind and a humble attitude you can get really good at picking your spots. This past weekend I exceeded my personal best biggest cash with a $11,000 week! This was all during the 1PM only slate. It was an incredible feeling to have locked up such a massive win before the afternoon games even started.

Now, who should we fade this week?

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Week 6 Fades

Andy Dalton (CIN) $8,100 vs Cleveland Browns

A question you should ask yourself is how many times will Dalton have to throw to beat the Browns? Whatever answer you come up with is part of the reason you should fade Dalton. The Bengals have lost their identity and are 2-4. With a Steelers loss and a Ben Roethlisberger injury, it’s anyone’s AFC North. It’s time for the Bengals to rediscover their identity which is a heavy dose of Jeremy Hill.

Also, divisional games are often times much lower scoring than not. This means less fantasy points and less situations where A.J. Green will have a big game. I mean common! Do you really think Cody Kessler and Andy Dalton will get into a shootout? Stranger things have happened, but I am willing to take my chances here.

RB LeSean McCoy (BUF) $9,000 @ Miami Dolphins

McCoy just ran for 140 yards and three touchdowns on only 19 carries! At one point it didn’t look like he’d come back in after suffering what seemed to be an ugly knee injury. This week he gets to play the Dolphins who are middle of the road against the run.

While McCoy is the bell-cow in Buffalo, he had a little extra motivation against Chip Kelley. Against the Miami Dolphins, he could easily cruise to 100 yards and a touchdown. While that is and excellent stat line for redraft leagues, it’s not good enough for what his salary and ownership will be in DFS.

A.J. Green (CIN) $8,500 vs Cleveland Browns

This spot is way too easy, right? The Browns can’t stop anyone and are 0-6. The Bengals are as high as a -10.5 favorite at home and the game is set at a 45 point over/under. Green could easily demolish the Browns and end up with 100+ yards and a touchdown, but will he have to? Probably not! This feels like a Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard kind of day.

Rob Gronkowski (NE) $8,500 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I attempted the Gronk fade last week and it failed miserably. Gronk is fully operational and every bit as devastating to opposing teams as the death star it to opposing planets. The Steelers are a wounded team who will do their best to get by without Ben Roethlisberger. That means they will run Bell left and run Bell right! Brady and Co. will no doubt strike quickly and unleash LeGarrette Blount to kill the clock. All that running doesn’t set up for a Gronk type of game. Martellus Bennett also had five catches on five targets this past week.

Try the Gronk fade one more time. People will no doubt stack Brady/White/Gronk because that line scored big last week. Let the field chase that same stack and bust while you carefully select a much better spot.

Minnesota Vikings ($4,900) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Defense takes a lot more energy to play than offense does. Cornerbacks can no longer jam a wide receiver on the line like they used to. Hitting a QB the wrong way can result in a 15-yard penalty. When you’re a defender there is a lot of stuff you have to think of not doing. It makes it difficult to go out there and just play free like you were taught while growing up.

Because of that, a great defense in today’s NFL can look amazing one week and awful the next. Look at the Broncos against the Falcons. Look at the Broncos against the Chargers. Look at the Eagles against the Lions! There are plenty of examples on a weekly basis.

Aggressive defenses can accrue a lot of penalties. Once that happens they can grow frustrated and give up huge plays down the field. This is the week the Minnesota Vikings have a let down game. They will no doubt be highly owned giving you a massive opportunity to jump the field!

Alternate Plays

Kirk Cousins (WAS) $7,300 @ Detroit Lions

The Lions just delayed Jared Goff’s rookie debut by allowing Case Keenum to throw for 321 yards and three touchdowns! After an extremely slow start, Cousins has thrown for eight touchdowns and only three interceptions. He has the Redskins competing in the NFC East again with a 4-2 record.

The Lions are now dead last against opposing quarterbacks and have allowed 17 touchdowns and 1,689 yards over the first six games! Darius Slay is a top-10 cornerback but he can’t cover the entire field. Look for Kirk to keep his upward trend in a potential “You Like That, You Like That?” part two.

Melvin Gordon (SD) $8,000 @ Atlanta Falcons

All Melvin Gordon does is score touchdowns. His yardage totals have been awful and so have his yards per carry. This game sets up to be a shootout which doesn’t bode well for Gordon. In back to back weeks, against the 30th and 31st ranked rushing defense, he had a combined 35 carries for 71 yards!

In those games, he also had seven targets. That’s a lot for a guy who no one thought could catch the ball coming out of Wisconsin. There has also been talk about Gordon’s touchdowns regressing. That is true but what also could be true is his yardage could be due for a positive regression. I’m not sure how he will get his 100-150 yards, but he has multiple ways to do so in the highest over/under of the week.

Allen Robinson (JAX) $8,400 vs Oakland Raiders

The Jaguars are not good. They fooled a lot of people in the offseason who thought they were going to be good. This was supposed to be the year they turned the corner to become a playoff team. Robinson has vastly underperformed his skill set in every way. Blake Bortles has also taken a step back but this week they have a chance to fool everyone all over again. They get to play the Oakland Raiders who are giving up historic passing yard totals.

Allen Robinson may not pull an Odell Beckham Jr. with 200 yards receiving, but he could easily get 120+ yards, 7-to-10 catches and multiple touchdowns.

Travis Kelce (KC) $6,300 vs New Orleans Saints

With only three catches for 32 yards against the Raiders, I wouldn’t blame you for not playing Kelce altogether. Jamaal Charles also got more touches this past week, and the Chiefs now have two-headed running back attack. Is Kelce getting phased out of the offense?

Not so fast! Leading up to last week, Kelce was averaging over seven targets a game! With Jamaal Charles getting older, Kelce is still the most dynamic player on that offense. They will find a way to get him involved. What better team to do that against than the New Orleans Saints?

Kansas City Chiefs ($4,500) vs New Orleans Saints

Starting a defense against a QB who just threw for 465 yards and four touchdowns is not for the faint of heart! We are all well aware of Drew Brees’ skills at home. We are also well aware of his struggles on the road. Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play. The Chiefs also just shut down a solid offense in the Oakland Raiders.

There will be sacks, fumbles, and interceptions in this one. There could also be a pick-six or two. The reward far outweighs the risk and fortune favors the bold! You could also argue the Saints over performed this past week and are due for a regression on the road. Whatever reasoning you need to talk yourself into this pick do it.

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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.