Melvin Gordon produced 103 yards after contact Week 9
Heading into Week 10, we are now in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season with only four more weeks to play. Some seasonal fantasy owners are in the process of trying to lock up first round byes, while others are just trying to stay in the playoff hunt. Others in dynasty leagues, who are now out of it (including a couple of my dynasty teams) are in the process of landing some solid keeper options for 2017. In Week 10, fantasy owners impacted by byes of starters on the strong offensive teams of the Lions, Raiders, Colts and the Bills will need to look to the waiver wire, a thin bench or trades for immediate help.
Below are some interesting statistical tidbits which can better help you target players in trades or unowned players possibly available on the waiver wire for streaming purposes. Additionally, they may be of some use for those teams already out of the playoff hunt in dynasty leagues looking for keepers to target in trades. These tidbits can also hopefully help you optimize DFS lineups.
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The 49ers are the now the first team in NFL history to allow a 100-yard rusher in seven straight games.
We touched on the 49ers vile run defense a few weeks ago. Clearly, as this NFL season has progressed, the 49ers inability to stop the run has gotten worse. They are now in very rarified air in terms of rush defense futility. In Week 9, the Niners allowed Mark Ingram to run all over them to the tune of 158 yards on just 15 carries (and one rushing TD) and Tim Hightower to run for 87 yards on 23 rushing attempts (and a TD). Obviously, if you have a running back facing the 49ers, he better be in your lineup. For instance, even after Ingram’s Week 8 benching and negative fantasy output, he was a very wise play just a week later against San Francisco. In Week 10, the 49ers face the Cardinals and David Johnson (who would be in your starting lineup irrespective of the matchup). Looking forward, however, San Francisco will face the Patriots, Dolphins and Bears in Weeks 11-13, which makes LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard attractive trade targets for teams fighting to make the playoffs. It also makes Dion Lewis a solid waiver target assuming he’s back to full strength by Week 11. During the fantasy playoffs, the 49ers will face the Jets, Falcons and Rams in Weeks 14-16, which makes Matt Forte, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Todd Gurley solid trade targets for those teams already positioned to make the playoffs.
In Week 9, Latavius Murray became just the third RB in NFL history to have 100+ rushing yards and three TDs in a game against a defending Super Bowl champion.
Murray joined DeAngelo Williams (2008) and Warrick Dunn (2000) as the only three RBs to have accomplished this feat. Murray had a somewhat mediocre start to the season, despite scoring a TD in three successive weeks to start the season, where his best rushing week was a modest 59 yards against the Saints in Week 1. This slow start, notwithstanding his ability to find the end zone, followed by in injury which held him out of Weeks 5 and 6, prompted many fantasy experts to downgrade Murray’s ROS ranking and declare DeAndre Washington or Jalen Richard the ROS backs to own in Oakland. However, in light of Murray’s impressive performance against the stout Broncos’ defense in Week 9 (in which Murray recorded his first career game with at least three rushing TDs), it will be hard for Oakland to continue to evenly split carries going forward and even harder for fantasy owners to keep Murray on fantasy benches. While his stock hasn’t risen back to pre-season RB1 levels in light of this Week 9 breakout performance, it should be noted that Murray now has seven rushing TDs this season, one more than he had in 2015, which makes him a very solid RB2 with a high ceiling going forward. Running behind an impressive Oakland OL, Murray should, presumably, get the majority of touches going forward and, almost certainly be the main RB to get red zone carries for the remainder of 2016. To the extent he is available, he should be targeted in trades during the Oakland Week 10 bye, despite his present “sell high” status coming out of Week 9.
According to Pro Football Focus, of Melvin Gordon’s 196 rushing yards in the Chargers’ Week 9 win over the Titans, 103 of those yards came after contact.
There can be no doubt that Gordon has broken out as one of the top fantasy RBs in 2016 after an unreal Week 9 in which he totaled 261 total yards and a TD against Tennessee. Gordon has now exceeded 100 rushing yards three times this season (in nine games) including in the last two games in a row (one of which was against the Broncos defense). If his recent dominance wasn’t enough to legitimatize his breakout as “bona fide,” the fact he totaled over 100 yards on the ground after contact in Week 9 certainly should. In Week 10, Gordon will face the Dolphins in a great matchup and should be in line for another stellar week. Gordon now qualifies as a matchup-proof back at this point and should be locked into all lineups, particularly coming out of the Chargers’ Week 11 bye as the fantasy playoffs approach. Additionally, dynasty owners now out of the playoff race who don’t employ a “no-RB” strategy will either want to hold Gordon or, if he is not rostered, potentially seek and overpay for him in a deal for the 2017 season, notwithstanding a Danny Woodhead return.
Also according to Pro Football Focus, Dak Prescott earned a near-perfect passer rating of 146.8 in Week 9 on his 23 drop-backs from a clean pocket.
Just last week in this article, we discussed how Dak Prescott’s four rushing TDs were the most by a Cowboys’ QB in a season since Danny White in 1983 – a particularly impressive feat given the fact that Ezekiel Elliott is on his team. This week, the impressive statistic we discovered relates to Prescott’s capabilities as a passing QB. In Week 9, Prescott threw for 247 yards and three TDs on 21 completions against a horrible Browns team. Despite the relatively easy matchup, Prescott’s near perfect rating when given time to pass in a clean pocket makes him a very formidable fantasy weapon/QB given the very solid Dallas OL. Now, before anyone thinks that this is a Cowboys/Prescott-homer weekly article, remember that the author (me) is a Giants’ fan with no love lost for our rivals in Dallas. Pure and simple, strictly from a fantasy standpoint, if the Dallas OL can continue to protect Prescott through the end of the season (and there is no reason to believe it won’t barring a rash of injuries), Prescott remains a very viable fantasy QB1 both in the air and on the ground. Additionally, it should be reiterated that along with Prescott, as the OL continues to perform, the fantasy value of those pass catchers with whom Prescott has built a rapport will continue to rise – namely, Cole Beasley, Dez Bryant, to a lesser extent Terrence Williams, and Jason Witten. If any of these players are available via waivers or trades, owners in need of help at WR and/or TE, may want to invest in them sooner than later.
As a result of the Week 9 Saints-49ers game, Drew Brees has now played in 35 games in which both he and an opposing QB have passed for at least 300 yards.
It’s kind of an obscure statistic, but it drives home two pretty obvious points for fantasy owners who have a pulse. First, Brees is a top-tier QB1, particularly at home and/or against a poor defensive unit; and second, the Saints’ defense is a dumpster fire. In Week 9, the much-maligned Colin Kaepernick passed for 398 yards against the Saints. In Week 10, the Saints will face the Broncos coming off of a brutal loss to the Raiders. This pretty much makes Trevor Siemian a top waiver add for those teams in need of a streaming QB for Week 10. In Week 9, Siemian had a somewhat decent outing against the Raiders where the Broncos were forced to throw most of the game due to game flow and the ineffective run game of Devontae Booker. In Week 10, we can anticipate more of the same (at least in terms of game flow) which should inflate Siemian’s numbers and make him a great bye week replacement for Stafford, Carr and Luck owners alike. For those teams fortunate enough to already be looking ahead to the playoffs, the top trade target at QB (to the extent he is available via trade) will be Jameis Winston who faces the Saints’ defense in Weeks 14 and 16.
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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
