Since Week 5, Marcus Mariota leads all fantasy QBs with 25.5 fantasy points per game
With only three more weeks until seasonal fantasy football league playoffs, owners are trying to lock down first-round byes or are clamoring for the final playoff spots. Other owners who are out of the playoff race in dynasty leagues are looking for solid 2017 keeper options.
Week 11 marks the second to last set of byes in the NFL. Owners of fantasy starters on the Falcons, Broncos, Jets and Chargers, teams who all have solid fantasy starting options, will need to look to the waiver wire, a thin bench or trades (provided your league trade deadlines haven’t already passed) for immediate help. Additionally, those owners who are potentially impacted by injuries, in particular, possibly Rob Gronkowski, will also need to look elsewhere for help.
Below are some interesting statistical tidbits which can better help you target players in trades or unowned players possibly available on the waiver wire for streaming purposes. Additionally, they may be of use for teams out of the playoff hunt in dynasty leagues looking for keepers to target. These tidbits can also hopefully help you optimize DFS lineups.
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The New York Giants have had 10 sacks and seven interceptions during their current four-game winning streak.
Don’t look now, but the Giants defense is coming on strong. In their previous five games, the Giants had just a miserable aggregated total of four sacks and two interceptions. Whether the recent success of the defense is a product of the opposing OLs they have played over the past four games (Ravens, Rams, Eagles and Bengals) or a product of the defensive scheme beginning to gel, their current status as a viable fantasy D/ST cannot be denied. In Weeks 11 and 12, the Giants defense will face the Bears and Browns, respectively, which makes this unit an extremely solid D/ST option down the stretch in seasonal leagues (and for DFS purposes over the next two weeks). Alternatively, the offensive weaponry of the Bears and Browns, or lack thereof, in Weeks 11 and 12 (respectively) should be downgraded below their already low forecasts. With the Bears facing a potential QB change and the loss of Alshon Jeffrey due to his PED suspension, and the continuing QB issues facing the Browns, the Giants’ D/ST should be a hot ticket commodity on the waiver wire this week, worthy of a high waiver claim or legitimate FAAB bid.
Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple TD passes in six straight games, tying Warren Moon for the longest streak in Titans/Oilers franchise history.
Mariota has transformed into a legitimate, high-end fantasy QB1 as the 2016 season has progressed. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 5, Mariota has averaged 259.5 passing yards/gm and 2.8 passing scores/gm. Over that same period of time, he has also run for 167 yards and two TDs. In fact, since Week 5, Mariota leads all QBs with 25.5 fantasy points/gm with Drew Brees in second at 24.8. Additionally, further supporting his legitimacy as a bona fide top-tier QB1, in Week 10, Mariota became the first QB with four TD passes and zero INTs against the Packers since Brett Farve accomplished that same feat (as a Viking) in 2009. With Mariota’s success, the Titans’ receiving weapons have also seen an uptick in fantasy value – namely, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe. The latter two, Matthews and Sharpe, remain widely unowned in seasonal leagues (Matthews owned in only 47% of CBS leagues; Sharpe owned in only 12% of CBS leagues) making them both attractive options for teams in bye week hell or in need of WR help. In Week 11, the Titans will face the Colts’ porous secondary which will, once again, make Mariota a very solid high-end option at QB, and also enable Walker, Matthews and Sharpe to produce for seasonal owners and DFS players looking for more contrarian/cheaper plays.
According to Elias Sports, Stefon Diggs is the first player in NFL history to record at least 13 receptions in consecutive games.
In Week 9, Diggs posted a most inefficient line of 13 receptions and 80 yards against the Lions, frustrating standard league owners, while rewarding PPR owners. In Week 10, Diggs again picked up 13 receptions but produced a much more attractive line with receiving yards of 164 against the Redskins, benefiting both standard and PPR owners alike. While he has been largely kept out of the end zone this season (two total TDs), Diggs has become a PPR darling essentially replacing Miami’s Jarvis Landry as the top PPR volume-driven receiver. With Diggs’ incredibly historic reception production over the last two weeks, it is clear that the opportunity is there for him with Sam Bradford under center (29 targets over the past two weeks) as the WR1 in the Vikings offense irrespective of whether he scores or not. For Diggs owners in PPR formats, he is an obvious must-start WR1/2 down the stretch. Standard league owners who are more dependent upon TDs can look at Diggs more as a WR2/3 with upside down the stretch. Given his target and reception volume, the law of percentages would suggest that he should get into the end zone, even with the Vikings struggling right now. That said, note that with the Vikings face the Arizona secondary in Week 11, a unit that just held the 49ers to 198 total passing yards in Week 10. Expectations for Diggs, at least for Week 11, should be tempered.
According to Pro Football Focus, 53.4% of Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage has come after the catch.
This represents the highest percentage for a QB in the NFL in 2016. It is an interesting statistic which reveals that Stafford’s production has been largely (or at least half) a product of his receivers’ abilities to get clear of defenders and/or produce solid YAC and not largely a result of the deep ball. What makes this statistic somewhat troubling is that Stafford’s numbers are, therefore, susceptible to defenses who are more adept at converging upon receivers after the catch – making (and somewhat revealing why) his fantasy production can fluctuate at times despite decent matchups. For example, following Week 3 against Green Bay in which Stafford threw for 385 yards and three TDs, in Week 4, against a much less stout Bears defense, Stafford was limited to just 213 yards, no TDs and two INTs. Additionally, following Weeks 6 and 7 in which Stafford posted over 250 yards in each game (and 37 and 21 points, respectively, in CBS PPR leagues), he followed up those games (in Weeks 8 and 9) in which he failed to hit 250 yards passing and managed just 15 and 18 points in CBS PPR leagues, respectively. While Stafford’s overall fantasy production has been worthy of a lower-tier QB1 designation, this tidbit should make owners aware that his fantasy production will likely remain inconsistent and heavily reliant on his ability to throw TDs and/or his receivers’ abilities to continue to put up solid YAC numbers.
Zach Miller has had 12 games over the last two seasons in which he has recorded five or more targets.
In those 12 games, Miller has averaged 5.2 receptions, 60.3 yards, 0.5 TDs/gm and 14.2 PPR points per game. By comparison, in his eight other games over that same period, he has only averaged 1.5 receptions, 13.6 yards and just 4.4 PPR points per game. With Alshon Jeffery facing a four-game suspension due to PED usage, it’s likely that Miller will benefit the most in the target department, along with Cameron Meredith. As such, it’s reasonable to expect Miller’s stat lines going forward from Week 11 until, at least, the first week of the fantasy playoffs in Week 14, will resemble his average line in those 12 games over the past two seasons where he has had five or more targets. Accordingly, owners in need of late-season TE help would be wise to seek out Miller (if he is available on waivers) where his average stat line could resemble a very nice 5-60-1 line. In Week 11, the Bears will face the Giants D/ST which, as mentioned above, is hot right now, but still susceptible to tight end production – as Tyler Eifert showed in Week 10. Miller is a solid waiver add for owners in need of help at the TE position beginning this week and through the end of the fantasy regular season.
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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
