It’s time to acknowledge that Colin Kaepernick is a good fantasy QB once again
R.C. Fischer discusses Six Fantasy Football Things We Learned From Week 12.
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After each week of games, I’ll be discussing things that stood out to me or things I believe the football media is shaping the wrong way or has totally overlooked. Here’s my take after watching all the this week’s contests…
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6) Grit Your Teeth and Consider Colin Kaepernick
100% of fantasy analysts are going to point out Kaepernick as a ‘keep your eye on’ option this week. Some analysts can do so taking credit for saying it a week or two ago as well. I cannot claim any credit that I’ve been on board early. I’m late to the party.
I’ve never liked Kaepernick as a quarterback talent, even during his flash run to the Super Bowl, and I have never liked Kaepernick the person since scouting him out of Nevada for the NFL Draft in 2011. I’ve laughed as CK has come in and lost six in a row this season.
However…I am a fantasy GM first. I check my morality at the door in search of fantasy points.
It’s just a game. I’m not marrying any of these players.
I didn’t think Kaepernick would run the ball as much as he has because I thought he’d want to avoid contact (as he’s done in the recent past), but he’s taking off more and more – 55 or more rushing yards in four of his last six games. 113 yards rushing in Week 12. He is throwing touchdowns suddenly as well – just 1.0 TD passes per game his first two games as starter this season, but 2.0 TD passes per game in his last four games. He had three TD passes in Week 12.
Kaepernick is not dominating NFL defenses, not at all…not via land or air. What he is doing is racking numbers because his team is constantly down big and he’s working against prevent-type defenses. He’s Blake Bortles-ing his way down the fantasy stretch.
The schedule looks fine ahead: Bears, Jets, Falcons and Rams. The 49ers have no defense, so every game has shootout elements and is fertile for fantasy points from their offense trying to hang in there.
You may not like him but look at your fantasy waiver wire…Kaepernick is about it for available QBs in most 12-team leagues. And he’s scoring more in games of late than some of the QBs we’ve all been starting. You might have to just pinch your nose here (I’m writing that to myself).
5) The Marcus Mariota + Rishard Matthews Party is Over
I’m not sure there are any two more fantasy players that I have benefitted from more this year than this Titans duo. I started 2016 with both on most of the rosters I’m associated with. A few weeks into the season, I dropped them in several spots on their low output, but then, fortunately, scooped them back up just as they went on a hot streak.
Alas, it has been fun times, but it’s time to make other plans. As I’ve said for a few weeks now – you cannot confidently use either one of Mariota or Matthews for the rest of the 16-week fantasy season because of their schedule.
Week 13: BYE
Week 14: Denver (#2 pass defense, Talib on Matthews)
Week 15: Kansas City (Peters on Matthews)
Week 16: Jacksonville (#5 pass defense, Ramsey on Matthews)
Don’t bother having this duo in your plan during the critical fantasy playoff stretch.
4) Don’t Fear The Rams’ Defense For Your Fantasy Matchups
Entering this week there was a lot of talk about the Rams having the best defense (statistically) in the NFL the past few weeks, and it was true. They have many talented defensive players, and they can look like world-beaters at times. However, you must know that when the Rams ‘quit’ on their coaches…it means a glorious collapse by their defense.
Last season, the Rams had a top defense for the first eight or so games of the season, and then they lost five in a row midseason, fell out of playoff discussions and their defense rolled over. In three of their last five games in 2015, the Rams’ defense allowed 450+ yards in total offense. They had not allowed more than 400 yards but once in their first 11 games last year, and then collapsed to the finish.
They just quit on the season, essentially. This Rams coaching staff has lost this team again, and the defense quit Sunday midgame, giving up 552 yards and 49 points to the Saints. I’ve seen this look from the Rams on the field before – I saw it last year – and it’s fantasy gold for most all your weapons opposing them.
Additionally, you cannot use this D/ST the rest of the season either. Beyond their mental state, the Rams have matchups with Tom Brady and Matt Ryan the next two weeks, and Seattle after that. Mix a defense in utter collapse matched up against offenses with firepower – it’s about to get real ugly, real fast for the Rams’ defense/team.
*By the time you read this, I’m sure Jeff Fisher will have been given a five-year contract extension.
3) Will The Texans Turn to Tom Savage?
Most likely not, at least not for this week. I truly believe that most NFL teams would rather lose/try hopelessly to win with a key player they made a mistake on rather than admit the mistake and try to correct it (see Jay Cutler). If Osweiler gets benched now, there’s no turning back for management. It would be ‘over.’ It’s tough to admit a $72 million humiliation.
The Texans are in first place, so there is still room for them to try to win the division with this mess of a quarterback. However, if Houston loses the next two weeks, and Osweiler is ‘Osweiler,’ and the team slips behind Tennessee and Indianapolis – the Texans will have their hand forced.
Whether two weeks from now, or sometime Monday, if the Texans do go to Tom Savage – just know that Savage is a talented quarterback, and he might reignite the passing game weapons on this team for fantasy. I thought Savage was one of the best QB talents in the 2014 NFL Draft – there aren’t many QBs in the NFL that can throw the ball downfield like he can. Not just a laser-beam arm, but he has a knack for finding receivers medium and deep, and hitting them in stride with frozen ropes.
Savage has been progressively better each preseason, and when he was forced into a game as a rookie in 2014 due to injury – there were a ton of positives in his performance. The numbers in his NFL debut game were mediocre in 2014, but I broke that game/tape down in detail back in 2014. There was much to have hope in.
Savage missed all of 2015 with an injury and easily won the backup job for 2016. You put Savage in this lineup and gone are the dink and dunks, and goodbye Osweiler missing wide open receivers downfield. You see Savage go in as a starter, and it means renewed fantasy hope for DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
2) Brandin Cooks – WR3 and Falling
I would argue Brandin Cooks is one of the 10 most gifted wide receivers in all the NFL, perhaps top five most talented. Incredible speed and agility, but also has terrific hands.
He’s a proven stud downfield, off bubble screens or taking handoffs. However, I don’t think Sean Payton shares that opinion.
In a game where his team scored 49 points, Brandin Cooks did not touch the ball. Wide receiver Tommylee Lewis got a carry. Wide receiver Willie Snead threw a TD pass.
It was a lot of fun for the Saints to embarrass the L.A. Rams, as they laughed it up and did creative handshakes on the sidelines. Cooks was not allowed in on any of the reindeer games.
If this were one-off blip performance in a crazy, blowout…I could understand that. It’s not. This is following a pattern of Cooks used as a downfield decoy and targeted sporadically for weeks now.
Cooks has also seen his snap counts dipping the last few weeks – no longer an every-down WR, but more of a 65–85% of the time on the field WR. His yards and catch counts are slowly melting down to regular old, plain, boring WR3 levels.
I’m a Cooks fan/owner, so I wish this were a blip, but I think this goose egg in Week 12 is a window into the soul of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Be afraid for Cooks ahead for fantasy, even if he has a big play TD leading to a solid fantasy score – his opportunity to do that every week for you is dwindling.
1) Taylor Gabriel…Blip or Reality?
Gabriel had an eye-catching two touchdowns and 102 yards combined in Week 12. He now has five TDs in his last four games (you wish Brandin Cooks was as productive and valued by his employer…). Over the last four weeks, Gabriel has yardage totals in games of 68-76-76-102.
The downside is his targets in those four games – 5-5-5-5. He’s not heavily targeted, but note he is averaging 1.0 carries per game in that four-game span, and more importantly – the Falcons are trying to use him as a weapon on purpose.
Gabriel was making waves with the Browns in 2014. I would have argued he was the team’s best WR as a rookie, but keep in mind he only had to topple Andrew Hawkins and Dwayne Bowe for that distinction. He was indistinguishable in 2015, a lot due to the QB play — he lived through the Johnny Manziel era.
In 2016, the new Moneyball management group in Cleveland drafted like 214 WRs and ended up keeping them all, then cutting Gabriel. Former Browns OC working with Gabriel, current Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan, urged the team to grab Gabriel off waivers because he knew the possibilities.
Gabriel has the physical tools – a 4.40 runner with a 40″ vertical and high-end agility. He’s small (5′7″/170), but he’s speedy, strong and proven. He’s been a good, reliable player for his three years in the NFL.
Gabriel has become the Falcons’ #3 WR and is thriving with the touches he’s getting. He’s a very poor man’s Tyreek Hill (a very interesting statement after the Sunday night game). The Chiefs are trying to build more around Hill, while Gabriel is just a part of the band, not a lead singer by any means, but he’s getting more drum solo opportunities because he’s delivering the goods.
I’d rather have Tyreek Hill going forward, or even Cordarrelle Patterson in a similar role as ‘weapon,’ but Gabriel is firmly on my radar in some leagues to pick up and see if he takes another step forward.
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