It may be time to seriously re-evaluate Todd Gurley
R.C. Fischer discusses Six Fantasy Football Things We Learned From Week 9.
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After each week of games, I’ll be discussing things that stood out to me — things I believe the football media is shaping the wrong way or has totally overlooked. Here’s my take after watching all the this week’s contests…
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6) Mark Ingram Is Magically Fixed Now…Are You Kidding Me?
Prior to this week, Ingram had 100+ yards rushing in a game ONE time in his last 25 games. So he rushes for 158 yards against the 49ers, the worst run defense in the history of the NFL, and now all is well? I don’t think so.
Tim Hightower started this game. He out carried Ingram in this game (23–15). I think the split is on, and anything can happen in the hot hand approach…plus, Sean Payton has been raving about Hightower’s clutch rushing ability all week (and longer than that). Hightower’s not going away, and Ingram is not in the clear yet.
5) Marvin Jones…Third-Best Wide Receiver on the Lions
Jones had that one mega-game against Green Bay (six catches, 205 yards) and we won’t let it go – despite data to the contrary. Here are the output numbers since Jones’ Week 3 explosion (the Lions’ six games from Weeks 4–9):
6.2 FF PPG (9.4 PPR) on 3.2 catches (5.8 targets) for 42.2 yards and 0.33 TDs per game = Marvin Jones
6.0 FF PPG (10.0 PPR) on 4.0 catches (5.3 targets) for 30.2 yards and 0.50 TD per game = Anquan Boldin
9.0 FF PPG (15.0 PPR) on 6.0 catches (8.7 targets) for 69.8 yards and 0.33 TDs per game = Golden Tate
Jones’s output has been poor the past six weeks, and his targets aren’t that of a fantasy starter-worthy player either. Yet, he’s still getting ranked in the top 20 among expert WR rankings week to week. I don’t know how you can start him his next game Week 11.
4) Cam Newton’s Run Game Drop Off Killing Your Fantasy Buzz?
Newton’s last five games in terms of fantasy points (four points per pass TD): 13.1, 15.6, 27.0, 12.8, 14.6 (16.6 per game). Newton’s barely been a top 20 fantasy QB in his past five games.
Most distressing is Newton’s drop in rushing output since returning from injury. In his three games since returning from injury, He’s averaged 20.3 rushing yards and 0.33 rushing TDs per game, down from his 36.8 rushing yards and 0.50 rushing TDs per game in his four games prior to injury…and down from his stellar 2016 of 39.8 rushing yards and 0.63 rushing TDs per game.
It’s only been three games, but if there wasn’t such discussion about Newton reducing his running, the hits he’s taking and lack of ‘roughing’ penalties not called for him – you have to wonder if he is purposefully throttling back his running mindset. Without his rushing totals/TDs, he becomes more of a fantasy liability than an ace starter. Make sure you have a strong QB2 going down the stretch in case this run game decline goes from blip to trend.
3) The New Vikings’ Offensive Coordinator Means…
It means that Stefon Diggs is the new Keenan Allen…a ton of targets, catches and so-so yards and TD output. A gem for PPR.
Sam Bradford loves the short, quick pass game. Norv Turner did not. New OC Pat Shurmur does.
Stefon Diggs is Bradford’s favorite receiver. It’s all going to add up to several games like Week 9 for Diggs – 13 catches for 80 yards on 14 targets…and no touchdowns.
The running back situation was a mess Sunday. Cordarrelle Patterson was still ignored early in the game. Kyle Rudolph has one catch. Most Vikings-related offensive items were a typical mess under Shurmur except, Diggs is going to get a lot of cheap, easy catches.
2) Start Your Sketchy Fantasy DSTs Against a Failing Carson Wentz
Dak Prescott keeps getting better. Wentz keeps getting worse (but the football media is still professing his rookie greatness on a par with Prescott).
In his last four games, Prescott has thrown for nine TDs (two INTs) and rushed for another two TDs.
In his last four games, Wentz has thrown for just two TDs (four INTs) and hasn’t rushed for a TD…in the NFL…ever. He has one yard rushing in his last four games as well.
What’s there to fear about the Eagles’ offense? In their past four games, the Eagles have scored only three offensive TDs (ignoring any defensive or return game scores). They have a run game led by Darren Sproles?
They have wide receivers that are worst in the league in drops. Wentz has twice as many interceptions as TD passes thrown in the past four games.
The Eagles have a bad offense. Start your opposing DSTs accordingly…with confidence!
1) Why Isn’t Todd Gurley a Questionable Fantasy ‘Start’ Every Week?
No matter what, Gurley shows up as a top 10 RB fantasy play every week no matter what analysis you look at. It’s just assumed. Why?
Let’s take Gurley’s last 16 games played and look at the full season numbers…
893 yards rushing (55.8 yards per game), nine rushing TDs, 30 catches, 294 receiving yards (18.4 yards per game), no receiving TDs.
10.8 fantasy PPG, 12.7 PPR. Just one 100+ yard rushing game in his last 16 (actually 17) games. He’s not been a top 20 producer among RBs over his last 16 games. His output per game is outside the top 30-40+ when you rank him with all RBs, WRs and TEs in various scoring formats.
I agree, Gurley is a superior talent wasting away on a team that starts Case Keenum, which invites defenses to stack the run (yes, Jeff Fisher, it is Case Keenum’s fault you’re losing…just not directly). We all know the problem. We all see the poor results every week. So why do we keep thinking ‘this is the week‘?
Jacquizz Rodgers was putting up better numbers when he got a shot at a workload. Jordan Howard has had a great start to his career as well. If you had to choose between Rodgers (no Martin), Howard or Gurley to start next week…you’d auto-start Gurley.
Why? He’s not giving any real reason to believe…yet, we all believe. You rarely hear questions like “Should I start Gurley or ____?”
When do we start disbelieving in Gurley for fantasy until proven wrong otherwise? Why is it the other way around?
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